Last month, we released our list of the top large, mid, and small cap stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of August. Here are how they performed in August 2026:

Large Caps

• WDAY: +23.99%
• CVNA: +16.50%
• NVDA: +8.98%
• DXCM: +8.50%
• PODD: -10.18%

Average Large Cap Return: +9.56%

S&P 500 (SPY) Return: +2.53%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Return: +3.87%

Mid Caps

• APPF: +30.07%
• NTNX: +16.20%
• PCTY: +16.10%
• CPRI: -16.57%

Average Mid Cap Return: +11.45%

S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) Return: -0.03%

Small Caps

• TNDM: +12.56%
• XPEL: +10.73%
• PTGX: +6.54%
• BOOT: +1.62%
• PTCT: +1.43%
• GNW: +1.42%
• STAA: -6.03%

Average Small Cap Return: +4.04%

Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) Return: +0.69%

The percentages represent the returns from the July 31st close to the August 31st price at roughly 3:00pm ET. The average performance of our August seasonality stocks in each asset class - large cap, mid cap, and small cap - beat their benchmark index for the 2nd straight month, so I'd say it was another solid performance month for our seasonal stocks.

S&P 500 September Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of September is -7.39%, which ranks dead last (12th) among all calendar months. September has risen 34 times and fallen 42 times since 1950, representing the only calendar month that loses ground more often than it gains. The annualized return in September on the NASDAQ is slightly worse, falling 8.42%. The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) isn't much better, as September produces an annualized return of -5.21% since 1988.

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout September on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• September 1-3: +26.47%
• September 4-10: -13.93%
• September 11-19: +10.19%
• September 20-26: -42.72%
• September 27-28: +36.53%
• September 29-30: -52.94%

September can begin the month on solid footing as the annualized return for the first 3 days shows. After that, however, the bulls have some fairly slim pickings. The September 20-26 week is the 2nd worst week of the entire year historically, trailing only October 21-27.

Sector Performance

Last month, I again pointed out that technology (XLK) tended to lead during the month of August and here's the sector leaderboard for the past month:

Only energy (XLE) outperformed technology over the past month as history held its form, at least with respect to the XLK.

As we look ahead to September, consumer discretionary (XLY) and industrials (XLI) have historically performed best, with the former outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by an average of +0.9% during September since the confirmation of the secular bull market back in 2013. The current XLY chart, however, leaves something to be desired technically:

Relative strength has been awful for many months. Part of that is because technology has been so strong, but even on an absolute basis, there's not much to like about the XLY. The AD line isn't exactly showing that Wall Street is beaming with confidence either. So let's step into September possibly by dipping our toes in the water, not by diving in. Technically, the XLY picture grows worse if 115 support is lost.

Industry Performance

Automobiles ($DJUSAU) has been the group where we've seen the most September strength among discretionary stocks in the past. It's interesting, because DJUSAU has begun to show emerging signs of strength as we close out August:

The upcoming gap resistance will likely be formidable, so whether the DJUSAU can clear this hurdle will likely answer the group's question about September 2026 strength.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during September, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, electronic equipment, computer services

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, home improvement retailers, recreational products, footwear

Communication Services (XLC):

• fixed line communications

Industrials (XLI):

• heavy construction, defense, airlines, railroads, commercial vehicles & trucks

Financials (XLF):

• life insurance, insurance brokers

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• brewers

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for September

A "Seasonality - September 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created tomorrow and should be available by end of day on our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the top 30 large, mid, and small cap stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of July. Here are how they performed in July 2026:

Large Caps

• REGN: +22.31%
• IQV: +21.63%
• ARES: +15.08%
• BX: +8.57%
• XYZ: +6.89%
• AAPL: +6.76%
• AMGN: +6.36%
• ANET: +6.16%
• FITB: +0.23%
• LITE: -16.80%
• MRNA: -21.72%
• GNRC: -32.68%

Average Large Cap Return: +1.90%

S&P 500 (SPY) Return: +0.03%
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Return: -6.59%

Mid Caps

• LAD: +32.68%
• AN: +14.32%
• CG: +9.29%
• MEDP: +8.97%
• YETI: -1.25%
• BC: -6.22%
• CYTK: -9.46%
• SGI: -16.67%

Average Mid Cap Return: +3.96%

S&P 400 Mid Cap (MDY) Return: -2.42%

Small Caps

• VRTS: +11.05%
• BLFS: +10.76%
• ETSY: +8.43%
• NEO: +4.80%
• ADMA: +1.08%
• DAN: -1.03%
• GPI: -1.51%
• XPEL: -10.54%
• MARA: -18.50%
• RUN: -26.68%

Average Small Cap Return: -2.22%

Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) Return: -3.08%

The percentages represent the returns from the June 30th close to the July 31st close. The average performance of our July seasonality stocks in each asset class - large cap, mid cap, and small cap - beat their benchmark index, so I'd say it was a solid month for our seasonal stocks.

S&P 500 August Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of August is +0.54%, which ranks 10th among all calendar months, besting only February (barely) and September. August has risen 42 times and fallen 34 times since 1950, representing 55% chance of August moving higher. Only September has an appreciably lower percentage (45%), though February and June are close.

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout August on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• August 1-5: -19.15%
• August 6-7: +34.50%
• August 8-10: -15.97%
• August 11-17: +19.15%
• August 18-28: -5.47%
• August 19-31: +5.37%

I broke out the August 1st through August 5th period intentionally as August is the only calendar month with a negative annualized return for the first 5 calendar days of a month. The 28th through the 6th of nearly every calendar month is historically strong. August is an exception and highlights the dullness of summertime trading in U.S. equities, at least historically. It also supports the S&P 500 continuing to trade mostly sideways as we work our way through the late summer months.

Sector Performance

Last month, I pointed out that technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY) tend to lead during the month of July, just as they typically do for the month of June as well. June turned out to be a bad month for both the XLK and the XLY and, quite honestly, so was July. Here's what a 1-month performance chart looks like for our sectors:

As tensions escalated again in the Middle East, money rotated away from aggressive areas like the XLK and XLY, and instead benefited energy (XLE) and financials (XLF).

For August, I'm going to sound like a broken record, but clearly technology (XLK) has been the best-performing sector. One month ago, I pointed out what looked like at the time a symmetrical triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. That completely fell apart and now I'd say there's more of a bullish wedge feel to the chart:

The bottom panel, though, does show a sector that is downtrending relative to the S&P 500 and that needs to change before we're going to see a meaningful rally in technology.

Industry Performance

Seasonality hasn't been our best friend this summer, especially when it comes to pointing out strong sectors and industry groups. But the show must go on, so let's discuss the seasonally-strong industry groups within technology for the month of August. It's fairly limited, but both computer hardware ($DJUSCR) and renewable energy ($DWCREE) typically perform well during August. Currently, both are in breakdown mode, but I do trust the computer hardware group a lot more.

As July opened up, I pointed out that I did like the computer hardware group as it had just bounced off its 50-day SMA. And, to be fair, the group did perform well throughout the month of July......until Apple Inc. (AAPL) reported its quarterly results after the close on Thursday, July 30th. Then we saw the following gap down, led by that AAPL rout:

Note that the AD line in this group keeps rising, suggesting significant accumulation. Even on Friday, after the AAPL quarterly report, buyers emerged throughout the trading day, happily buying the group at lower prices.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during August, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• computer hardware, renewable energy

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, apparel retailers, home improvement retailers, recreational services, home construction, travel & tourism

Communication Services (XLC):

• mobile telecommunications

Industrials (XLI):

• defense

Financials (XLF):

• mortgage finance, reinsurance, consumer finance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• nondurable household products

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for August

A "Seasonality - August 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created later today or tomorrow and should be available by tomorrow on our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the top 30 large, mid, and small cap stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of June. Here are how they performed in June 2026, in order of best to worst performer:

• ACMR: +46.59%
• GKOS: +35.23%
• ELF: +32.14%
• VCYT: +26.74%
• PTGX: +23.12%
• KRYS: +20.27%
• MEDP: +18.45%
• LNTH: +11.72%
• RH: +10.94%
• WING: +10.48%
• TWLO: +8.23%
• ANET: +6.53%
• GNRC: +5.36%
• EW: +4.61%
• XYZ: +0.37%
• LITE: +0.36%
• APPF: -0.51%
• BOOT: -3.30%
• TSLA: -3.49%
• STAA: -4.01%
• WOR: -5.30%
• FOXF: -6.10%
• DXCM: -8.67%
• CVNA: -9.84%
• CELH: -11.99%
• FN: -14.08%
• AVGO: -15.45%
• RUN: -19.98%
• NOW: -20.17%
• AVAV: -20.35%

The percentages represent the returns from the May 31st close to the June 30th close. The average performance of the 12 large cap stocks (-3.85%) trailed the S&P 500 (-1.28%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, -0.26%). The average performance of the 18 mid and small cap stocks (+9.12%), however, crushed the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +3.45%) as well.

June was an excellent seasonality month for our small and mid cap stocks, but not so much for our large cap selections.

S&P 500 July Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of July is +15.53%, which ranks 4th among all calendar months, trailing only November, December, and April. Over the past 14 years and since this secular bull market was confirmed in 2013, July has only trailed November in performance. And over the past 20 years, July has been the best calendar month in terms of annualized performance. July has risen 46 times and fallen 30 times since 1950.

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout July on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• July 1-17: +26.60%
• July 18-23: -15.64%
• July 24-31: +18.52%

Sector Performance

Last month, I pointed out that technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY) tend to lead during the month of June. Neither performed particularly well in June, although the XLY did outperform the XLK. Value stocks ended up performing best as health care (XLV), industrials (XLI), and financials (XLF) were the clear June winners.

For July, both technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary again typically perform best. Both the XLK and XLY are consolidating, but the XLK is in a symmetrical triangle, which is a bullish continuation pattern:

XLK's relative strength is also in a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, I'd continue to stick with the group as we approach another, what should be, strong earnings season.

Industry Performance

Last month, I pointed out software ($DJUSSW) has broken out and that the group loves the month of June. So naturally, I felt like we were about to see an even bigger rally in the space. I was wrong, plain and simple. The group does like June, but it didn't like June 2026, although strength did return at the end of the month. Perhaps that will continue into July and ahead of a better-than-expected earnings season? Time will tell.

For July, should the bullish symmetrical triangle pattern lead to higher prices in the XLK, renewable energy ($DWCREE) and computer hardware ($DJUSCR) both have solid seasonal records in July. I like both heading into July, but the DJUSCR is just now bouncing off a 50-day SMA test, so I think I prefer this group:

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during July, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• renewable energy, computer hardware, electrical components & equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• recreational services, automobiles, broadline retailers, home construction, business training & employment agencies, home improvement retailers

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• trucking, building materials & fixtures

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance, mortgage finance, financial administration, asset managers, investment services

Health care (XLV):

• biotechnology

Consumer staples (XLP):

• none

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate services, industrial & office REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• water

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• steel, paper

Stocks for July

A "Seasonality - July 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created later today or tomorrow and should be available by tomorrow on our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the top 24 large, mid, and small cap stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of May. Here are how they performed in May 2026, in order of best to worst performer:

• MU: +87.76%
• AMD: +45.59%
• MTSI: +29.48%
• DY: +23.16%
• ON: +19.65%
• CROX: +16.37%
• DCH: +16.29%
• TTMI: +9.80%
• AVGO: +7.03%
• LYV: +6.63%
• NVDA: +5.80%
• TTWO: +4.87%
• KTOS: +1.71%
• LQDT: +1.57%
• EA: -0.32%
• CELH: -0.89%
• ECPG: -3.43%
• MTZ: -3.98%
• TMUS: -4.08%
• ADUS: -5.38%
• NFLX: -8.11%
• MCK: -8.93%
• EPAM: -9.95%
• SRPT: -14.42%

The percentages represent the returns from the April 30th close to the May 31st close. The average performance of the 12 large cap stocks (+12.16%) crushed the S&P 500 (+5.26%) and even exceeded the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +10.57%). The average performance of the 12 mid and small cap stocks (+5.86%) beat the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +4.48%) as well.

May was a very good month for our seasonal stocks.

S&P 500 June Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of June is +2.89%, though it's been much stronger during the current secular bull market. Over the past 14 years, the S&P 500 has produced annualized returns of 15%+ in June. Since 1950, though, the S&P 500 has closed higher in June 42 times out of the last 76 years. In terms of annualized performance on the S&P 500, June ranks 9th out of 12 calendar months.

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout June on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• June 1-6: +33.59%
• June 7-11: -16.42%
• June 12-17: +11.01%
• June 18-27: -19.26%
• June 28-30: +28.14%

Sector Performance

Last month, I pointed out that technology (XLK) and communication services (XLC) had been the clear relative leaders among sectors during the month of May since this secular bull market was confirmed in 2013. They both had outperformed the S&P 500 about 80% of Mays since 2013, but the average relative outperformance had been stronger among technology stocks. The XLC was relatively flat in May, but the XLK was very strong again, helping to lead our major indices to fresh new all-time highs.

For June, both technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary typically perform well. I've discussed the XLK at length the past several months, so I want to focus on the XLY this month as it finally closed above its April/May double top, which very well could lead to further gains in June:

Despite the huge rally in the XLY in April, its relative strength has tumbled to fresh new lows in May. That's been the case with just about every sector other than technology. Technology has been so strong, other sectors, even if they move higher, still show relative weakness.

Industry Performance

Last month, I pointed out that, despite significantly overbought conditions, semiconductors loved the month of May. And, right on cue, semiconductors moved to another level of overbought during May as the rally continued. There are negative divergences in play on their daily chart as we open June, so this could be an extremely volatile month for that group - especially since we're now in the 3rd month of the calendar quarter, which typically isn't a great one for the semis. Since 2013, the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC) has gained, on average, the following during the various months of the calendar quarter:

• 1st calendar month (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct): +8.61%
• 2nd calendar month (Feb, May, Aug, Nov): +17.76%
• 3rd calendar month (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec): +4.28%

My belief is that once we've made our way through earnings season, the group tends to see a wave of profit taking.

So......if money does rotate away from semiconductors, what groups could benefit? Well, consumer discretionary was mentioned as a top sector in June and there are a few industries in that space like autos ($DJUSAU), footwear ($DJUSFT), and specialty retail ($DJUSRS) that perform well historically during June. But I want to focus on a technology group that just broke above key resistance - software ($DJUSSW). During this secular bull market, software has actually been the best-performing area within technology during June. And now the group gets a breakout just before a seasonally-strong month:

All technical signs are pointing to a bigger rally ahead for the software space. I really like the group. Adding a strong seasonal period to the mix only adds to the bullish breakout. Volume on Friday EXPLODED to confirm the breakout. I believe the worst is behind this group and it's set to take over a leadership role. I expect June to be strong for software and could really help our major indices remain afloat, if the semiconductors do, in fact, take a breather.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during June, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• software, semiconductors

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, footwear, specialty retail, business training & employment agencies, durable household products, toys, broadline retail, recreational products

Communication Services (XLC):

• publishing

Industrials (XLI):

• delivery services

Financials (XLF):

• none

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• none

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• nonferrous metals

Stocks for June

A "Seasonality - June 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and should be available Monday on our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the top large cap stocks (12) plus top small cap stocks (12) that had strong historical track records during the month of April. Here are how they performed in April 2026, in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• AMZN: +27.27%
• TT: +18.19%
• PFG: +11.99%
• WAB: +7.99%
• AXP: +7.14%
• NRG: +6.13%
• SNA: +5.56%
• WMB: +4.85%
• HAS: +2.39%
• DVN: +2.09%
• OKE: +1.08%
• EQT: -5.59%

Small Caps:

• EZPW: +29.16%
• MTRN: +27.07%
• WAL: +15.09%
• PAG: +14.71%
• LRN: +10.20%
• WRLD: +8.98%
• AN: +8.77%
• CRS: +8.64%
• GPI: +7.94%
• EHC: +3.58%
• GDEN: -3.33%
• CRK: -17.36%

The percentages represent the returns from the March 31st close to the April 30th close. The average performance of all 12 large cap stocks (+7.42%%) trailed both the S&P 500 (+10.51%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +15.69%). The average performance of the 12 small cap stocks (+9.45%) trailed the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +12.08%) as well.

Our performance, however, wasn't as bad as it might appear on the surface. First, 21 of the 24 stocks provided gained ground. Second, and this is one is big, technology was a massive driver in the April stock market gains and our April Seasonality ChartList had exactly ZERO technology positions.

S&P 500 May Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of May is +4.41%, though it's been much stronger during the current secular bull market. The S&P 500 has closed higher in May 47 times out of the last 76 years. In terms of annualized performance on the S&P 500, May ranks 8th out of 12 calendar months.

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout May on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• May 1-5: +32.51%
• May 6-11: -17.78%
• May 12-16: +8.53%
• May 17-25: -15.94%
• May 26-31: +37.47%

History suggests that May starts off the month and ends the month with a couple of bangs. The period in-between, however, has been far less desirable. Broken down a different way, here's how May has performed since 1950:

• May 1-5 + May 26-31: +35.22%
• May 6-25: -10.31%

Sector Performance

Last month, I pointed out that energy (XLE) had been a clear leader in 2026 and that it historically performed better than the other sectors in April. I also correctly pointed out the negative divergence that was present in late March and that, after a potential short-term pullback, I'd look for the XLE to lead again. The XLE did rally strongly during the second half of April, but it badly lagged during the first half of the month as its PPO moved just below centerline support to "reset". The XLE, as it turned out, was not the place to be in April 2026 as technical conditions seemed to win out over historical tendency.

Looking ahead to May, technology (XLK) and communication services (XLC) have been the clear relative leaders among sectors during the month of May since this secular bull market was confirmed in 2013. They both have outperformed the S&P 500 about 80% of Mays since 2013, but the average relative outperformance has been stronger among technology stocks.

Industry Performance

It's hard to suggest a group as overbought as semiconductors ($DJUSSC), but this group absolutely loves the month of May. Check out how the DJUSSC has performed relative to the S&P 500 over the past 14 years:

It has outperformed the S&P 500 by 5 percentage points, on average, over the past 14 Mays, BY FAR exceeding any other calendar month's relative performance.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during May, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• renewable energy, semiconductors, software, computer hardware, electrical components & equipment, electronic equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• tires, toys, automobiles

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• marine transportation, building materials & fixtures

Financials (XLF):

• mortgage finance, full line insurance, insurance brokers

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• none

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for May

A "Seasonality - May 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created by tomorrow and will be added to our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 large cap stocks (plus 12 small cap stocks) that had strong historical track records during the month of March. Here are how they performed in March 2026 (through approximately 2pm ET on March 31, 2026), in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• CTRA: +13.70%
• EQT: +3.01%
• EQIX: +0.98%
• FAST: +0.37%
• WST: -1.36%
• LIN: -2.48%
• ZS: -4.75%
• NUE: -4.99%
• AIG: -6.83%
• STLD: -7.96%
• TKO: -8.44%
• TPL: -10.34%
• WSM: -11.79%
• CARR: -13.04%
• KDP: -13.77%
• EXR: -13.78%
• LULU: -18.35%
• CAG: -18.96%
• ULTA: -23.87%
• DG: -24.81%

Small Caps:

• CC: +19.85%
• VIRT: +6.01%
• CWEN: +2.22%
• DXPE: +0.93%
• ARWR: -1.04%
• KRYS: -6.23%
• FIZZ: -8.17%
• CTRE: -9.45%
• CALM: -9.77%
• PATK: -10.36%
• DY: -19.49%
• SCVL: -23.63%

The percentages represent the returns from the February 27th close to the March 31st close. The average performance of all 20 large cap stocks (-8.37%) trailed both the S&P 500 (-5.78%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, -5.58%). The average performance of the 12 small cap stocks (-4.93%) squeaked past the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, -5.83%), posting its 3rd consecutive month of outperformance.

S&P 500 April Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of April is strong at +16.82%, trailing only November (+22.05%) and December (+17.00%), among all calendar months. The S&P 500 has closed higher in April 53 times out of the last 76 years. The only calendar month that closes higher more often is December (55 times).

Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout April on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• April 1-18: +27.76%
• April 19-24: -4.49%
• April 25-30: +10.95%

Sector Performance

Last month, I pointed out that there was one very clear relative sector leader since 2013 - utilities (XLU). This defensive group had outperformed the S&P 500 in 12 of the last 13 years in March through 2025. I looked for the group to show relative strength once again in March 2026 and it did. The XLU actually traded lower in March, but it performed way better than the S&P 500, which endured much heavier losses for the month.

Looking ahead to April, energy (XLE) has performed best during this calendar month over the past 13 years and since this current secular bull market was confirmed. The XLE is already the best-performing sector, by far, in 2026, so bullish relative momentum is definitely on its side as we enter the month:

Unfortunately, as you can see from the above, absolute momentum shows a negative divergence. That doesn't guarantee selling ahead, but it does add another level of short-term risk. I'd be looking for a 20-day EMA test. If that moving average does not hold, then a 50-day SMA test could be in store. After a potential short-term pullback, however, I'd look for leadership from energy once again.

Industry Performance

Last month, I pointed out that the water index ($DJUSWU) was just beginning to show some relative strength as we entered March and that it typically outperforms the S&P 500 in March. It wasn't a huge month for water, but the relative strength continued to surge:

Exploration & production stocks ($DJUSOS) are typically very strong in April and the group is on fire right now, as we enter April 2026:

We've seen some profit taking the past few days, but I'd be looking for buyers to show up again if the DJUSOS tests its rising 20-day EMA.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during April, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• renewable energy, software

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• tires, broadline retailers, restaurants & bars

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• marine transportation

Financials (XLF):

• consumer finance, full line insurance, specialty finance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• distillers & vintners

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• exploration & production, integrated oil & gas, coal

Materials (XLB):

• gold mining, mining, nonferrous metals, paper

Stocks for April

A "Seasonality - April 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created by tomorrow and will be added to our website.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 large cap stocks (plus 10 small cap stocks) that had strong historical track records during the month of February. Here are how they performed in February 2026, in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• TPL: +50.50%
• TRGP: +17.33%
• AMAT: +15.65%
• FCX: +13.03%
• URI: +7.65%
• CF: +7.34%
• HII: +6.04%
• XYZ: +5.41%
• HLT: +4.49%
• CPAY: +3.33%
• MPWR: +1.65%
• MOS: +1.24%
• NXPI: +0.38%
• FTNT: -2.74%
• AON: -3.85%
• ANET: -5.81%
• NVDA: -7.29%
• BKNG: -15.24%
• CVNA: -16.69%
• TTD: -21.46%

Small Caps:

• ESI: +20.58%
• MTRN: +18.03%
• SNEX: +13.58%
• REZI: +12.96%
• ZWS: +10.80%
• TDC: +10.41%
• ANDE: +5.32%
• RGR: +2.04%
• KRYS: -1.29%
• LZB: -1.90%

The percentages represent the returns from the January 31st close to the February 28th close. The average performance of all 20 large cap stocks (+3.05%) easily beat the S&P 500 (-0.86%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, -2.34%). The average performance of the 10 small cap stocks (+9.05%) crushed the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +0.68%).

S&P 500 March Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of March is solid, but not spectacular, from a long-term perspective as the S&P 500 has closed higher in March 49 times out of the last 76 years, producing an annualized return of +12.30% over that time frame. This annualized return places March in the 6th spot among the 12 calendar months in terms of March performance.

Since 1950, March has produced an annualized return of +12.30% on the S&P 500, which ranks 6th among all 12 calendar months. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout March on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %'s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• March 1-5: +37.80%
• March 6-9: -24.42%
• March 10-18: +30.83%
• March 19-22: -18.13%
• March 23-31: +11.63%

Sector Performance

Last month, I indicated that industrials (XLI) have regularly enjoyed relative strength vs. the S&P 500 during the month of February. The XLI promptly soared relative to the S&P 500, backed by those seasonal tailwinds. Here was the chart I showed on the XLI last month, updated to include the strong February 2026:

Support held and the XLI built off of its January gain.

Looking ahead to March, there's one very clear relative leader since 2013 - utilities (XLU). This defensive group has outperformed the S&P 500 in 12 of the last 13 years in March. I'd look for the group to show relative strength once again. First, check out the seasonal strength that the XLU typically enjoys in March:

.....and now take a look at the technical breakout in February:

Obviously, there are never any guarantees with respect to the stock market, but the XLU certainly appears poised to for solid action in the month ahead.

Industry Performance

Last month, I highlighted aerospace ($DJUSAS) and defense ($DJUSDN) as two industry groups that could benefit from the seasonal tailwinds that seem to lift industrials every February. Both continued their ascent and performed well:

Aerospace:

Defense:

For March, all industries within utilities tend to perform well. Conventional electricity ($DJUSVE) and water ($DJUSWU) are slight seasonal outperformers within the group. The DJUSVE is now testing key overhead resistance from a high set back in October. The DJUSWU, on the other hand, has been much weaker, but did just clear some recent overhead price resistance:

It looks to me like the relative downtrend on the DJUSWU may just be starting to turn back up. That could be great timing for water to once again show its March relative dominance.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during March, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, telecom equipment, computer hardware

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• broadline retailers, toys

Communication Services (XLC):

• mobile telecommunications

Industrials (XLI):

• waste & disposal services, delivery services

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance, reinsurance

Health care (XLV):

• health care providers

Consumer staples (XLP):

• food products, distillers & vintners, food retailers & wholesalers, brewers, nondurable household products, drug retailers

Real estate (XLRE):

• specialty REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• conventional electricity, water, multiutilities, gas distribution

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• gold mining, mining, nonferrous metals, steel

Stocks for March

A "Seasonality - March 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created and should be added to our website this weekend.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 large cap stocks (plus 7 small cap stocks) that had strong historical track records during the month of January. Here are how they performed in January 2026, in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• MU: +45.36%
• WDC: +45.25%
• VLO: +11.45%
• DXCM: +10.05%
• FANG: +9.06%
• META: +8.55%
• PHM: +6.68%
• COR: +6.36%
• HCA: +4.59%
• NXPI: +4.18%
• SMCI: -0.55%
• MSTR: -1.47%
• DPZ: -1.56%
• TSLA: -4.29%
• APO: -7.06%
• ARES: -7.40%
• KKR: -10.37%
• NFLX: -10.95%
• SHOP: -18.48%
• TEAM: -27.11%

Small Caps:

• ICHR: +64.62%
• HP: +18.13%
• AX: +14.89%
• INVX: +13.63%
• GKOS: +5.73%
• PRLB: +4.07%
• CVI: -10.61%

The percentages represent the returns from the December 31st close to the January 31st close. The average performance of all 20 large cap stocks (+3.11%) easily beat the S&P 500 (+1.45%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +1.23%). The average performance of the 7 small cap stocks (+15.78%) annihilated the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +5.45%).

S&P 500 February Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of February is not very good from a long-term perspective as the S&P 500 has closed higher in February just 41 times out of the last 76 years. Only September has closed higher fewer times.

Since 1950, February has produced an annualized return of -0.19% on the S&P 500, which ranks 11th among all 12 calendar months, exceeding only September's annualized return. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout February on the S&P 500 since 1950. The %s shown are the ANNUALIZED returns for the period:

• February 1-3: +41.71%
• February 4-11: -10.90%
• February 12-15: +39.57%
• February 16-29: -16.26%

Historically, February tends to be strongest in the first half of the month. The second half of February begins a not-so-good stretch that runs through the end of March.

Sector Performance

Last month, I indicated that communication services (XLC) had a 13-year winning streak of outperforming the S&P 500 during the month of January. We can now make that a 14-year winning streak as the XLC once again outperformed during January, thanks in large part to the strong Meta Platforms (META) earnings-related gains late in the month.

Technically, we were looking for a cup with handle breakout and that's what we saw:

As we look ahead to February, industrials (XLI) have typically performed the best among all sectors. Currently, the group looks solid technically as well:

The red arrows mark prior price resistance. After clearing those levels, that becomes price support. Note that the two lines intersect almost perfectly with both the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA. That's your range of support right now on the XLI.

Industry Performance

Inside industrials, there is widespread strength during February. Aerospace ($DJUSAS) and defense ($DJUSDN), however, are two of the strongest and given the current geopolitical state, these could areas could prosper in February 2026. Check out the charts:

Aerospace:

I like the pullback recently to the 20-day EMA and the DJUSAS should also see solid support near the 50-day SMA, should it get there. Relative strength has eased a bit during this recent period of consolidation/selling, but this group has been a very strong relative winner since early December.

Defense:

Defense is perhaps a bit stronger than aerospace right now. Both of these groups also fit the "value" profile that Wall Street has been gravitating to as well.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during February, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, telecom equipment, electrical components & equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• travel & tourism, hotels, gambling, specialty retailers

Communication Services (XLC):

• media agencies

Industrials (XLI):

• marine transportation, aerospace, defense, airlines, heavy construction, trucking, railroads

Financials (XLF):

• insurance brokers, specialty finance, property & casualty insurance, consumer finance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• tobacco

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate services, real estate holding & development

Utilities (XLU):

• water

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• nonferrous metals, steel, aluminum, paper

Stocks for February

A "Seasonality - February 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created and should be added to our website later today or early tomorrow.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 large cap stocks (plus 5 small cap stocks) that had strong historical track records during the month of December. Here are how they performed in December 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• LULU: +12.83%
• JBL: +8.22%
• ON: +7.78%
• IVZ: +7.44%
• TER: +6.42%
• WDC: +5.56%
• LYV: +2.47%
• LLY: -0.07%
• STX: -0.47%
• CCEP: -1.08%
• EW: -1.64%
• EXR: -2.22%
• MPWR: -2.35%
• VTR: -4.03%
• MHK: -5.69%
• VLO: -7.90%
• BLDR: -8.32%
• SMCI: -13.53%
• AVGO: -14.11%
• LW: -29.07%

Small Caps:

• HCC: +12.62%
• REZI: +6.46%
• KTOS: -0.25%
• COLL: -0.81%
• COHU: -4.32%

The percentages represent the returns from the November 30th close to the December 31st close. The average performance of all 20 large cap stocks (-1.99%) trailed the S&P 500 (+0.08%) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, -0.67%). The average performance of the 5 small cap stocks (+2.74%) easily outpaced the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, -0.71%).

S&P 500 January Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of January is quite solid from a long-term perspective as the S&P 500 has closed higher in January 46 times out of the last 76 years. There's one important thing to keep in mind when it comes to January performance. The most bullish period of the year is from the October 27th close through the January 18th close. So a very bullish historical season comes to an end on the 18th. This nearly 3-month period accounts for 50% of the gains on the S&P 500 since 1950. It doesn't mean that the market's guaranteed to move lower after January 18th. Instead, it simply means that we should perhaps adjust our bar of expectations a tad lower.

Since 1950, January has produced an annualized return of +13.10% on the S&P 500, which ranks 5th among all 12 calendar months. January gains have been more modest during the current secular bull market. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout January on the S&P 500 since 1950:

• January 1-6: +38.17%
• January 7-9: -31.47%
• January 10-18: +16.86%
• January 19-22: -19.08%
• January 23-31: +23.98%

I would certainly give a seasonal edge to the bulls, though recent years might want us to consider January historical performance as more of a neutral reading. It's worth mentioning, however, that January has been the best performing calendar month on the NASDAQ since 1971, with an annualized return of 29.99%. Like with the S&P 500, though, January returns during the secular bull market have been more modest since January 2014.

Sector Performance

Last month, real estate (XLRE) looked interesting, yet we saw mostly sideways action throughout the month. Instead, industrials (XLI) and financials (XLF) continued to show relative strength, as they typically do during Q4.

January usually caters to the communication services (XLC) sector as that group has typically jumped in January. In fact, since 2013, the XLC has outperformed the S&P 500 in every single January:

Technically, it appears that the XLC simply needs a breakout out of a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern:

The breakout would be a very bullish clue that the XLC might be looking to outperform the S&P 500 in January for the 14th straight year. For now, however, that red circle in the bottom panel is highlighting the relative weakness in January 2026 thus far.

Industry Performance

There is a very clear winner among industry groups within the communication services sector - internet ($DJUSNS). Here's how internet stocks have fared vs. the S&P 500 from 2013-2025:

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during January, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• computer services, software

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• broadline retailers, home construction, gambling, specialty retailers, toys, recreational services

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• airlines, aerospace

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance

Health care (XLV):

• medical equipment

Consumer staples (XLP):

• drug retailers, general retailers

Real estate (XLRE):

• mortgage REITs, office & industrial REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• water

Energy (XLE):

• oil equipment & services, pipelines

Materials (XLB):

• gold mining, mining

Stocks for January

A "Seasonality - January 2026" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created later today and will be added to our website later today or tomorrow.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 large cap stocks (plus 11 small cap stocks) that had strong historical track records during the month of November. Here are how they performed in November 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

Large Caps:

• CZR: +15.77%
• EPAM: +14.35%
• PH: +11.50%
• FICO: +8.82%
• KEYS: +8.19%
• DECK: +8.01%
• ROK: +7.47%
• CFG: +6.35%
• PODD: +4.53%
• SYF: +4.43%
• MTD: +4.27%
• BKNG: -3.40%
• MRVL: -4.63%
• TSLA: -5.78%
• SHOP: -8.75%
• XYZ: -12.04%
• NVDA: -12.59%
• AMD: -15.07%
• ANET: -17.13%
• ZS: -24.05%

Small Caps:

• COLL: +29.67%
• XNCR: +17.74%
• KRYS: +10.37%
• IBP: +7.97%
• SBH: +4.96%
• BOOT: +2.20%
• CENX: +1.18%
• TGTX: -4.37%
• PENG: -9.16%
• ICHR: -25.93%
• AOSL: -27.73%

The percentages represent the returns from the October 31st close to the November 30th close. The average performance of all 20 large cap stocks (-0.49%) was mostly inline with our major indices. Collectively, our November seasonal large cap group trailed the S&P 500 (+0.19%), but outperformed the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, -1.56%). The average performance of all 11 small cap stocks (+0.63%) also was inline with the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +1.02%). There were certainly plenty of stocks above that followed their historical norms and advanced nicely. But there were other equally-disappointing November results that offset those strong stocks. Semiconductor stocks ($DJUSSC, -5.83%) had a very unusual and rough November, and many of the poor performers on our list are semiconductors, including NVDA, AMD, ICHR, and AOSL.

S&P 500 December Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of December is quite solid from a long-term 75-year perspective as the S&P 500 has closed higher in December during 55 of the last 75 years. It hasn't been nearly as bullish over the past 13 years, however, and during the current secular bull market. In fact, December has produced minimal average gains as you can see from this seasonal 13-year chart on the S&P 500:

Remember, this is historically the absolute best period of the year to be invested in the S&P 500. The close on October 27th through the close on January 18th is the best 2+ month period, dating back to 1950. It's closed higher than it began 65 of the last 75 years. That's a very strong historical track record. The annualized return of this period is +21.72%, more than double the average annual return of 9% of the S&P 500 over the same 75-year period.

Since 1950, December has produced an annualized return of +17.24% on the S&P 500, which ranks 2nd among all calendar months, trailing only November. During the current secular bull market, though, this annualized return has been just +0.77%, so recent December history has not been as kind. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout December on the S&P 500 since 1950:

• December 1-8: +19.62%
• December 9-15: -17.12%
• December 16-18: +47.76%
• December 19-20: -17.97%
• December 21-31: +39.61%

I would certainly give a seasonal edge to the bulls, though recent years might want us to weight this "indicator" a bit lighter. I do believe in the "Santa Claus" rally. The dates defining this rally change among market pundits, but I tend to view it as the December 21st through December 31st period, simply based off of history.

Sector Performance

December has typically been a month, at least for the past 13 years, where we've seen relative strength in defensive sectors. Real estate (XLRE), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU) have been the 3 best relative performers, while energy (XLE) has historically lagged. It's also been fairly normal to see rotation into more defensive sectors in the 2nd half of all calendar quarters, once earnings season is mostly over. I don't expect this December to be all that different, although technology (XLK) did get off to a solid December start last week. It'll be interesting to see if that aggressive group keeps the relative lead throughout the month. It'd be slightly out of the norm.

Real estate looks rather interesting right now from a technical perspective. It's obviously been a relative laggard throughout 2025 as the group has mostly traded sideways throughout the year, while the S&P 500 has trended higher and set new all-time highs. The good news for the XLRE, though, is that it's currently trading fairly close to solid price support. Check this out:

We haven't seen the XLRE close below 40.30 since May. It's tested that level on several occasions since that time, but has bounced successfully each time. With the XLRE currently trading below 41, there isn't a whole lot of downside risk of owning the XLRE at this level and, given its historical December strength, might make sense to be overweighted in portfolios - at least for the very near-term.

Industry Performance

Among the defensive sectors that show historical strength in December, the XLP's personal products industry ($DJUSCM) shows as much relative December strength as any. Technically, the group has begun to show nice absolute and relative strength. So long as its rising 20-day EMA, which just printed a golden cross where it rises above its 50-day SMA, holds as short-term support, I'd expect further strength from this group. There is a bit of overhead price resistance that will need to be negotiated, but a possible reverse head & shoulders could be forming:

Certainly something to watch over the next few weeks.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during December, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• telecom equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• recreational services, hotels, furnishings, toys, home improvement retailers

Communication Services (XLC):

• none

Industrials (XLI):

• none

Financials (XLF):

• consumer finance

Health care (XLV):

• pharmaceuticals, medical equipment

Consumer staples (XLP):

• personal products, nondurable household products, food products

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate holding & development, retail REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• water

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• aluminum, gold mining, mining, nonferrous metals

Stocks for December

A "Seasonality - December 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created today and will be added to our website later today.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of October. Here are how they performed in October 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• GOOGL: +15.67%
• GM: +13.32%
• PLTR: 9.89%
• LW: +6.28%
• COIN: +1.86%
• MPC: +1.13%
• DAL: +1.11%
• LDOS: +0.80%
• GNRC: +0.37%
• CBOE: +0.16%
• PSX: +0.09%
• UAL: -2.55%
• NDAQ: -3.35%
• NFLX: -6.68%
• APO: -6.72%
• TYL: -8.96%
• PAYC: -10.11%
• ICE: -13.17%
• MSTR: -16.36%
• FFIV: -21.70%

The percentages represent the returns from the September 30th close to the October 31st close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (-1.95%) was weak relative to our major indices. Collectively, our October seasonal group trailed the S&P 500 (+2.38%) and performed even worse relative to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +4.78%). Our biggest October winner was Alphabet (GOOGL), an internet company ($DJUSNS), which showed excellent relative strength vs. its peers before posting better-than-expected earnings. Check this out:

While GOOGL had an exceptional October, printing and then breaking out of a bullish cup with handle pattern, our overall group didn't perform well as a whole. Hopefully, our November group will see better results.

S&P 500 November Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of November is exceptionally strong. Check out this seasonal chart on the S&P 500:

Remember, this is historically the absolute best period of the year to be invested in the S&P 500. The close on October 27th through the close on January 18th is the best 2+ month period, dating back to 1950. It's closed higher than it began 65 of the last 75 years. That's a very strong historical track record. The annualized return of this period is +21.72%, more than double the average annual return of 9% of the S&P 500 over the same 75-year period.

Since 1950, November has produced an annualized return of +22.32% on the S&P 500, which easily ranks 1st among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout November on the S&P 500:

• November 1-5: +70.39%
• November 6-9: -2.05%
• November 10-13: +22.97%
• November 14-20: -15.75%
• November 21-30: +42.22%

Seasonality is definitely no guarantee. It's nothing more than a tendency and it should be viewed as such. We just experienced a strong September, despite historical September headwinds. The worst week of the year, from the October 21st close through the October 27th close, ended higher in 2025. Now we're in a very bullish part of the year and we're seeing some difficulty in pushing prices higher, especially on the small cap IWM.

When bullish seasonal tendencies line up and corroborate a bullish technical view, that provides me more confidence for a trade - again, no guarantee.

Sector Performance

November is strong for a number of areas of the market. For instance, discretionary (XLY) has risen during November in each of the last 10 years. Industrials (XLI), financials (XLF), and technology (XLK) have dropped during November only once since the secular bull market was confirmed in April 2013. Aggressive groups tend to perform very well. Since I featured the XLF in October, I'll take a look at industrials (XLI) for November. Technically, the XLF has performed better than the XLI in November, but not by much.

The XLI's best relative performance, by calendar month, is during November, followed closely by February. Technically, the XLI remains in a solid uptrend, so there's little reason to believe that the XLI isn't heading higher. Check out the current technical view:

The bottom panel shows a very weak relative strength line. I discussed this a bit during my Trading Places LIVE show this morning. Currently, 4 of our 5 aggressive sectors are downtrending vs. the S&P 500. Normally, that would be a bearish signal. But we need to understand what's really been happening. It's not that money has been pouring into defensive sectors. Rather, the reason why the XLI, XLF, XLC, and XLY have struggled during 2025 on a relative basis is because technology (XLK) has been on absolute FIRE! The money isn't leaving these four aggressive areas and being parked in defensive areas. Instead, the money is rotating to technology. That's not bearish at all.

Industry Performance

There are a number of industry groups within industrials that love the month of November, but airlines ($DJUSAR) have been huge winners in November over the years. Check out the DJUSAR chart:

Airlines is the true "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" industry group personality when it comes to seasonal performance. Since this secular bull market was confirmed in 2013, airlines have had two rather distinct personalities - very bullish during the 6-month period from September through February, while bearish during the other 6-month period from March through August. Check out this average performance comparison over the past 13 years:

• Average gain, September through February: +17.7%
• Average loss, March through August: -3.6%

So far, the current September through February period has been down. Will the bullish tailwinds kick in soon? I'd watch those two price support levels in the DJUSAR chart above for potential reversal areas.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during November, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, electrical components & equipment, electronic equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, home construction, apparel retailers, clothing & accessories, footwear, hotels, gambling, durable household products, home improvement retailers, recreational products, recreational services, specialized consumer services

Communication Services (XLC):

• publishing

Industrials (XLI):

• airlines, aerospace, railroads, industrial suppliers, commercial vehicles & trucks, heavy construction, trucking, building materials & fixtures, industrial machinery, delivery services

Financials (XLF):

• asset managers, banks, investment services, life insurance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• drug retailers, food retailers & wholesalers

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate services, hotel & lodging REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• aluminum, nonferrous metals, steel

Stocks for November

A "Seasonality - November 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created today and will be added to our website later today or early tomorrow morning.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of September. Here are how they performed in September 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• DELL: +16.06%
• ULTA: +10.96%
• JBL: +6.02%
• ALL: +5.51%
• DDOG: +4.18%
• CME: +1.87%
• URI: -0.18%
• SCHW: -0.39%
• GILD: -1.06%
• LYV: -1.86%
• LUV: -2.48%
• AXON: -3.97%
• UAL: -8.10%
• DAL: -8.14%
• NKE: -9.41%
• TTD: -10.34%
• RCL: -10.64%
• ALGN: -11.79%
• LULU: -12.00%
• FDS: -23.26%

The percentages represent the returns from the August 31st close to the September 30th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (-2.95%) was very weak relative to our major indices. Collectively, our September group trailed the S&P 500 (+3.56%) and performed even worse relative to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +5.38%). Our biggest September winner was Dell Technologies (DELL), a computer hardware company ($DJUSCR), which actually is trying to bust through a key price resistance/neckline level that could trigger much further gains down the road. Check this out:

It was a rough month, however, for our strong seasonal performers in September.

S&P 500 October Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of October improves from September - at least historically, before exploding higher in November. Check out this seasonal chart on the S&P 500:

The really good news about October is that the absolute best period to be invested in the S&P 500 is from the close on October 27th through the close on January 18th. This period has closed higher than it began 65 of the last 74 years. That's a very strong historical track record. The annualized return of this period is +21.72%, more than double the average annual return of 9% of the S&P 500 over the same 75-year period.

Since 1950, October has produced an annualized return of +10.70% on the S&P 500, which ranks 7th among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout October on the S&P 500:

• October 1-6: +38.07%
• October 7-9: -30.42%
• October 10-18: +18.88%
• October 19-21: +3.16%
• October 22-27: -42.54%
• October 28-30: +67.15%

September turned out to be an anomaly where we saw mostly bullish action during a historically-bearish month. Clearly, anything goes. History does turn more bullish, though, in October and that seasonal strength only accelerates as we move into the very bullish month of November.

Sector Performance

Financials (XLF) love Q4. The seasonality chart below highlights the performance of the XLF over the past 12 years (since the start of the current secular bull market):

If you add up the average relative returns of each calendar month by calendar quarter, you'll get the following average quarterly returns on the XLF since 2013:

• Q1: +0.7%
• Q2: +2.6%
• Q3: +2.6%
• Q4: +8.9%

Technically, the XLF remains in a solid uptrend, so I look at it very bullishly, considering that historical tailwinds now support the group as well:

The XLF relative strength line in the bottom panel has been dropping for months, but keep two things in mind. First, the XLF doesn't have a history of outperforming throughout the year. Rather, it sees its strongest historical period during Q4, which just started. Second, the XLF encompasses a number of industry groups. The true Q4 strength results from a few key industries, which are spelled out in the next section.

Industry Performance

There are a number of industry groups within financials that love the month of October, but banks ($DJUSBK) and asset managers ($DJUSAG) lead the pack. While they both show similar bullish historical track records in October and Q4, I think the slight edge goes to banks based on their current technical outlook. Check out both groups on an absolute and relative basis:

The banks appear to be in a healthier uptrend and their relative chart vs. the S&P 500 has been printing higher lows and equal highs. Asset managers, on the other hand, have been underperforming the S&P 500 recently by a country mile and there was a slight breakdown on the group's absolute chart as well.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during September, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• computer hardware, software, renewable energy

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• hotels, tires

Communication Services (XLC):

• none

Industrials (XLI):

• airlines, diversified industrials

Financials (XLF):

• banks, asset managers, investment services, property & casualty insurance

Health care (XLV):

• health care providers

Consumer staples (XLP):

• tobacco

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• conventional electricity, water

Energy (XLE):

• exploration & production, integrated oil & gas

Materials (XLB):

• steel, paper, nonferrous metals

Stocks for October

A "Seasonality - October 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website this weekend.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!
Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of August. Here are how they performed in August 2025 (through Friday, August 29th at noon), in order of best to worst performer:

• DAY: +20.69%
• HUM: +20.52%
• PODD: +17.42%
• AAPL: +12.32%
• INCY: +12.02%
• EPAM: +11.13%
• ANET: +10.29%
• BLDR: +9.27%
• MTCH: +8.67%
• NFLX: +3.98%
• MELI: +3.42%
• BKNG: +1.92%
• WDAY: -0.29%
• CRM: -1.63%
• NVDA: -1.74%
• PAYC: -2.36%
• CRWD: -5.85%
• DXCM: -7.00%
• AMD: -7.33%
• VST: -10.07%

The percentages represent the returns from the July 31st close to the August 29th intraday price around noon ET. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+4.77%) was quite strong relative to our major indices. Collectively, our August group more than doubled the S&P 500 (+1.91%) for the 2nd straight month and performed even better relative to the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ, +0.88%). Our biggest August winner was Dayforce, Inc. (DAY), a business support services company ($DJUSIV), while Humana, Inc. (HUM), a health care provider ($DJUSHP), was a 2nd stock that gained over 20% during the month of August. HUM ended the month approaching an 11-month high that was established near 310 in November 2024.

The S&P 500 got off to a very rough start in August, but rebounded throughout the balance of the month. Still, our seasonally-strong ChartList for August did its job, collectively beating both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.

S&P 500 September Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of September has been much more bearish than any other calendar month historically. We know that the May through July period has been our best 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years. The worst 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years? August-September-October. Check out this seasonal chart on the S&P 500:

We should lower our market expectations over the next few months - at least based upon recent history. August 2025 proved to be ok after that ugly start to the month, but what will September hold in store? Again, let's keep our expectations lowered until we move into the much more bullish Q4, especially once earnings season begins in mid-October. Since 1950, the absolute-best period to be invested in the S&P 500 is from the close on October 27th through the close on January 18th. We're not that far away, so patience will be important if we do see some deterioration in price action between now and then.

Since 1950, September has produced an annualized return of -8.06% on the S&P 500, which ranks dead last among all calendar months and no other calendar month is close. Here's a breakdown of the historically strong and weak performance periods throughout September on the S&P 500:

• September 1-3: +27.26%
• September 4-10: -15.13%
• September 11-16: +24.48%
• September 17-19: -6.26%
• September 20-26: -43.09%
• September 27-30: -9.51%

September is also the tale of 2 half months. The second half of September historically has been the real problem, as you can see from the following:

• September 1-16: +7.97%
• September 17-30: -25.63%

After checking out these numbers, hopefully you can see why it makes sense to lower our expectations. This is data that goes back 75 years. We're not talking about the last few years or the last 10 years. This is representative of over seven decades. We need to understand this. Not every September finishes lower and maybe 2025 will be a year in which September gains ground. Just please be aware of the strong bearish tendencies.

Sector Performance

Industrials (XLI) begin to show relative strength in September that continues right through November (though October shows only modest relative strength). Check out this seasonality chart since the bull market was confirmed in 2013:

Technically, the XLI is quite strong so the prospects for leadership over the next few months in this area in 2025 are quite good:

The negative divergence in the XLI has resulted in some recent weakness and we're nearly at a PPO centerline reset and 50-day SMA test (pink arrows). I see just below 150 being excellent price support, but in the event that support level is lost, I would certainly expect the next key price support level at 145 to hold.

Industry Performance

There were a number of industry groups within industrials that love the month of September, but none more than airlines ($DJUSAR), which boasts a very strong historical track record for the months of September, October, and November. Check out this seasonal chart:

This seasonality chart shows the DJUSAR relative performance vs. the benchmark S&P 500. September actually begins a 6-month stretch, through February, where airlines perform exceptionally well. In fact, check out the relative performance of airlines for each of the following 6-month periods since 2013:

• March through August: -11.1%
• September through February: +13.9%

I don't understand why this occurs, but it's one of the most fascinating historical facts that I've come across.

Technically, airlines are now showing strength as they head into their strong seasonal 6-month period:

Seasonality doesn't provide us any sort of guarantee, but it sure does provide us interesting seasonal tendencies.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during September, broken down by sector:

Technology (XLK):

• none

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• footwear, tires, recreational products, home improvement, hotels, restaurants & bars, automobiles

Communication Services (XLC):

• fixed line telecommunications, media agencies

Industrials (XLI):

• airlines, defense, heavy construction, railroads, industrial suppliers, trucking, commercial vehicles & trucks

Financials (XLF):

• insurance brokers, life insurance, property & casualty insurance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• brewers, distillers & vintners, food retailers & wholesalers

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• exploration & production, integrated oil & gas

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for September

A "Seasonality - September 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website this weekend.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of July. Here are how they performed in July 2025 (through Friday, July 25th), in order of best to worst performer:

• IQV: +26.38%
• MRNA: +23.78%
• BX: +19.07%
• KKR: +14.38%
• ANET: +11.70%
• CARR: +10.30%
• AMGN: +9.80%
• GNRC: +9.60%
• AMZN: +5.49%
• IDXX: +5.38%
• PYPL: +4.92%
• AAPL: +4.25%
• FITB: +4.16%
• ODFL: +2.95%
• CF: +1.41%
• DASH: +1.38%
• KLAC: +0.71%
• PANW: -0.67%
• MSCI: -5.28%
• ISRG: -8.93%

The percentages represent the returns from the June 30th close to the July 25th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+7.04%) was exceptional. Collectively, our July group more than doubled the S&P 500 (+3.12%) and nearly tripled the NASDAQ 100 (+2.67%). Our biggest July winner was Iqvia Holdings, Inc. (IQV), a health care provider ($DJUSHP), while Moderna (MRNA, +23.78%) was a 2nd stock that's gained over 20% during July thus far.

The S&P 500 has seen 9 all-time high closes in July, including every day last week. Much of that strength was led by several of our July seasonal stocks as 17 of the 20 stocks provided ended July 25th in positive territory. 6 gained 10% or more.

S&P 500 August Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of August has been mostly uneventful historically. We know that the May through July period has been our best 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years. The worst 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years? August-September-October. Check out this seasonal chart on the S&P 500:

We should lower our market expectations over the next few months - at least based upon recent history.

Since 1950, August has produced an annualized return of 0.24% on the S&P 500, which ranks 10th among all calendar months and barely beats out February (+0.04%). Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout August on the S&P 500:

• August 1-3: +4.61%
• August 4-10: -13.35%
• August 11-17: +18.76%
• August 18-28: -5.91%
• August 29-31: +6.42%

There's not a whole lot historically-speaking to get excited about. The only period within August that eclipses the S&P 500's average annual gain of 9% is the August 11th through 17th period. Otherwise, August tends to be subpar.

If I break down August performance by 1st half vs. 2nd half, it's equally unexciting:

• August 1-15: -1.21%
• August 16-31: +1.49%

Meh.

Sector Performance

Technology (XLK) tends to lead the stock market higher over the spring and summer months and 2025 has been no exception as the XLK has been a relative leader off the April low as you can see below:

There's no reason to believe that this relative outperformance in technology won't continue. In fact, over the past decade, the XLK has outperformed the S&P 500 more often in August than any other month:

The average outperformance during August of +1.1% does trail both May and June, however. Still, August is a strong relative performance month for technology and I see nothing technically right now that will change that in August 2025.

Industry Performance

There were a number of industry groups within technology that love the month of July and, as I discussed last month, computer hardware ($DJUSCR) was one of them. In August, there isn't nearly as much across-the-board relative strength in technology. It's narrowly comprised of computer hardware and software ($DJUSSW).

July 2025 has been a good month for the DJUSCR, but not a great month:

While the DJUSCR has seen solid absolute strength in July thus far, its relative strength remains contained below a key relative resistance line. Should that break, then I'd expect much more absolute and relative strength from computer hardware in August. Apple's (AAPL) quarterly earnings, due out on Thursday, July 31st, after the market close, will have a lot to do with the DJUSCR's absolute and relative performance in August.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during August:

Technology (XLK):

• computer hardware, software

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, home improvement retailers, apparel retailers, recreational services, travel & tourism

Communication Services (XLC):

• mobile telecommunications

Industrials (XLI):

• defense, waste & disposal services

Financials (XLF):

• mortgage finance, reinsurance, consumer finance, financial administration

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• food retailers & wholesalers, nondurable household products, general retailers

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for August

A "Seasonality - August 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website on Monday.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of June. Here are how they performed in June 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• ANET: +18.09%
• GNRC: +17.26%
• AVGO: +13.87%
• ZS: +13.87%
• MDB: +11.21%
• CSGP: +9.30%
• CRWD: +8.05%
• PANW: +6.35%
• PLTR: +3.45%
• OXY: +3.02%
• DXCM: +1.74%
• NOW: +1.68%
• VRTX: +0.71%
• EW: -0.01%
• DECK: -2.32%
• PODD: -3.34%
• TSLA: -8.31%
• PAYC: -10.69%
• LULU: -24.98%
• FTV: -25.73%

The percentages represent the returns from the May 31st close to the June 30th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+1.66%) was fairly solid, but weighed down significantly by two stocks, FTV and LULU, both of which tumbled roughly 25%. Collectively, our June group trailed the S&P 500 (+4.83%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+6.27%). Our biggest June winner was Arista Networks (ANET, +18.09%), a telecom stock ($DJUSCT), though Broadcom (AVGO, +13.87%) nearly pulled off the feat for the second month in a row.

Our major indices were able to push back to all-time highs by the end of June and that was certainly reflected in 13 of our 20 June seasonal stocks gaining ground, 5 of which gained 10% or more.

S&P 500 July Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of July has been very strong historically. In fact, the May through July period has been the best 3-consecutive-calendar-month period over the past 10 years, even besting the historically strong 4th quarter, October through December.

Since 1950, July has produced an annualized return of 15.39% on the S&P 500, which ranks 4th among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout July on the S&P 500 (NASDAQ performance since 1971 is in parenthesis):

• July 1-17: +26.53% (+32.73%)
• July 18-23: -16.61% (-34.93% and this period includes July 24th)
• July 24-31: +18.97% (+6.42% and this period excludes July 24th)

The NASDAQ's July performance shows that it tends to exceed that of the S&P 500 over the first half of July, but tends to be weaker in the 2nd half, which is after earnings season starts. Over the past 12 years, however, and during this current secular bull market advance since 2013, the NASDAQ is in its sweet spot vs. the S&P 500, at least as far as the NASDAQ 100 goes. Check out this relative seasonality chart between the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500:

The relative outperformance of the NASDAQ 100 vs. the S&P 500 can be summarized as follows:

• May through August: +4.4%
• September through April: +1.2%

The NASDAQ 100's relative strength since 2013 has occurred almost exclusively in the May to August timeframe, and we're squarely in the middle of this timeframe right now.

It'll be interesting to see if this recent relative summer strength in NASDAQ 100 shares continues to hold true through August. Here's the relative strength of the NASDAQ 100 vs. the S&P 500 just in 2025 so far:

Anyone following the "Go Away in May" hype train that media outlets routinely promote? I'm telling you, the media is literally the devil. July's NASDAQ 100 relative performance is down thus far vs. the S&P 500, but we're only 3 days in. April, May, and June all produced much better results on the more growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 and that would not happen if Wall Street was anticipating another push higher in inflation. Again, this type of signal comes from the charts and relative performance and absolutely nothing from the media or "news".

Sector Performance

Nearly all historical relative strength in July comes from the aggressive sectors, especially since the secular bull market began in 2013. Consumer discretionary (XLY) was featured last month as it typically performs very well in June and July. It performed well, but technology (XLK) performed much better and that sets this group up for more strength in the next two months. Technology's strength in July and August is more than double any other sector since this secular bull market began. After breaking out of a long-term base, I am a strong believer that we're going to see more absolute and relative strength in technology down the road:

The May annotations were provided two months ago, showing key absolute and relative price levels to watch on the XLK chart. After clearing those levels, technology easily became the leading sector.

Now I would be remiss if I didn't mention the negative divergence on the XLK. Clearly, from technical analysis 101, we should look at this as a potential short-term warning sign as it appears that upside momentum is slowing. However, the bottom panel shows that the XLK:$SPX ratio is once again moving to a new high. So my question would be, can a sector truly be losing momentum while leading the S&P 500 on a relative basis? That latter point would indicate renewed strength, wouldn't it?

I don't think we can totally ignore a negative divergence, but I would keep in mind that these divergences are secondary to price action, which is always my #1 indicator.

Industry Performance

Let's talk historical technology strength, where computer hardware ($DJUSCR) has excelled in the past. From the following seasonality chart, you can see that the DJUSCR absolutely LOVES the months of July and August:

It appears the July strength has already begun to kick in:

There's still a TON of potential upside left on this chart and the group's largest stock, Apple, Inc. (AAPL), was mentioned recently as a potential "run into earnings" candidate. I really like AAPL and this group over the next couple months.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during July:

Technology (XLK):

• renewable energy, electrical components & equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, recreational products, business training & employment agencies, broadline retailers, home construction

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• trucking, building materials & fixtures, delivery services

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance, mortgage finance, financial administration, investment services

Health care (XLV):

• biotechnology

Consumer staples (XLP):

• food retailers & wholesalers, general retailers

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate services, industrial & office REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• water

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• steel, paper

Stocks for July

A "Seasonality - July 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website this weekend. Below are the seasonal stocks for July 2025:

CARR, MRNA, ISRG, AMGN, IQV, AAPL, GNRC, ODFL, PYPL, DASH, ANET, CF, FITB, PANW, KKR, KLAC, AMZN, IDXX, MSCI, BX.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of May. Here are how they performed in May 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• AVGO: +25.77%
• NVDA: +24.06%
• MU: +22.76%
• AMD: +13.74%
• EPAM: +11.20%
• CRWD: +9.91%
• NFLX: +6.67%
• ON: +5.84%
• IT: +3.64%
• LYV: +3.58%
• MRVL: +3.12%
• MCK: +0.84%
• CZR: -0.67%
• EA: -0.90%
• TMUS: -1.92%
• TTWO: -3.02%
• ALB: -4.77%
• ENPH: -7.18%
• HUM: -11.10%
• REGN: -18.12%

The percentages represent the returns from the April 30th close to the May 31st close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+4.17%) was nice, but lagged the S&P 500 (+6.28%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+9.18%). Our biggest May winner was Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO, +25.77%), a semiconductor stock ($DJUSSC). Several semiconductor stocks led our May performance, but other stocks failed to keep pace. The overall weak performance of our May seasonal stocks vs. both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 was mostly attributable to large growth stocks significantly outperforming the rest of the market. Like I mentioned earlier, our semiconductor stocks performed exceptionally well on a relative basis, but beyond that, most of our May seasonal stocks underperformed our key indices.

May continued our April strength off of the April 7th bottom and that was reflected in 15 of our 20 seasonal stocks gaining ground during the month.

S&P 500 June Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of June hasn't been great historically, but we have seen strength in June the past decade. In fact, the May through July period has been the best 3-consecutive-calendar-month period over the past 10 years, even besting the historically strong 4th quarter, October through December.

Since 1950, however, June has produced an annualized return of just 2.14% on the S&P 500, which ranks 9th among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout June on the S&P 500:

• June 1-6: +32.93%
• June 7-11: -16.95%
• June 12-17: +11.66%
• June 18-27: -21.03%
• June 28-30: +27.49%

The NASDAQ's June performance (+11.93%) since 1971 has been much stronger than the S&P 500's, as the NASDAQ has gained at least 5% in June in 5 of the past 6 calendar years. The following seasonality chart covers the 2019 through 2024 period for the NASDAQ 100, highlighting not only the June strength, but the May through July 3-month strength:

It'll be interesting to see if this recent summer strength holds true again in 2025, especially with so many folks bearish and believing that the S&P 500 will return to the April low. I'm not among those bearish folks. I see the market heading higher ahead.

Anyone following the "Go Away in May" hype train that media outlets routinely promote has missed average 3-month returns (May through July) of 10% during the years 2019 through 2024. That's a game changer for many investment portfolios and is one more exclamation point why following the media will make investing nearly impossible.

Sector Performance

There are no significant outperformers among sectors during the month of June. Financials (XLF), materials (XLB), and utilities (XLU) tend to be weak relative performers, however. The strongest relative performer, historically, is consumer discretionary (XLY), which could really benefit the underlying strength of U.S. stocks if that is the case again this year. Here's the current technical outlook of the XLY as we head into June:

I love the turn higher in relative strength off the March relative low (bottom panel). This tells us that consumer discretionary is leading U.S. stocks higher, a very bullish development. Also, check out the recent successful 20-day EMA tests and the bullish configuration of the chart - price action above the rising 20-day EMA, which is positioned above the rising 50-day SMA. All systems are GO here if the XLY can make another breakout, clearing 218-219 on a closing basis. Continue to watch support at the rising 20-day EMA initially and then the gap and price support, highlighted by the green-shaded area.

Industry Performance

Let's focus on consumer discretionary stocks, where we've seen the best relative sector strength during June since this secular bull market began in 2013. Automobiles ($DJUSAU) have historically performed very well in June, led by June strength in Tesla, Inc. shares (TSLA). First, let's look at the DJUSAU chart and then the TSLA seasonal chart:

$DJUSAU

I could absolutely see autos have a solid month of June, given current technical conditions. The DJUSAU is trending higher on both absolute and relative bases. The rising 20-day EMA has provided excellent support in recent weeks and the only technical hurdle ahead appears to be neckline resistance in a bullish, reversing head & shoulders pattern. To confirm, however, we need to see this breakout above the 1250 area.

TSLA

TSLA has moved higher more often in June than any other calendar month and it's produced the highest average monthly return during June since the secular bull market began in 2013. Keep this in mind should TSLA (and autos) clear recent closing highs.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during June:

Technology (XLK):

• software, computer hardware

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• autos, business training & employment agencies, recreational products, specialty retailers, clothing & accessories, broadline retailers, footwear

Communication Services (XLC):

• publishing

Industrials (XLI):

• delivery services

Financials (XLF):

• none

Health care (XLV):

• medical equipment

Consumer staples (XLP):

• nondurable household products

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for June

A "Seasonality - June 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website later today. Here is a quick link and password, however, so that you can download it now:

Link: June Seasonality

Password: SEASCL8456

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of April. Here are how they performed in April 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• MELI: +19.48%
• ALGN: +9.09%
• WAB: +1.87%
• HST: -0.63%
• AXP: -0.65%
• WMB: -1.99%
• TTD: -1.99%
• AMZN: -3.07%
• WYNN: -3.82%
• BLDR: -4.25%
• LULU: -4.34%
• EXPE: -6.64%
• SNA: -6.88%
• EQT: -7.47%
• PFG: -12.11%
• TRGP: -14.27%
• FANG: -17.43%
• DVN: -18.69%
• BKR: -19.45%
• CE: -21.54%

The percentages represent the returns from the March 31st close to the April 30th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (-5.74%) badly lagged the S&P 500 (-0.87%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+1.40%). Our biggest April winner was MercadoLibre (MELI, +19.48%), a specialized consumer services stock ($DJUSCS). The poor performance of our April seasonal stocks was mostly attributable to a very weak energy group (XLE, -13.86%). We had four energy-related companies in our April seasonality list that took massive hits, BKR (-19.45%), DVN (-18.69%), FANG (-17.43%), and TRGP (-14.27%).

We saw a very, very weak start to April and then a significant rally off the April 7th low. Most stocks saw nice rebounds, but strength was definitely concentrated in Mag 7 and other growth stocks. April typically is led by areas outside technology, but it certainly was not in April 2025. Energy is normally a very strong April performer, as its average April return (+3.8%) during the current secular bull market (since 2013) outpaces every other month. Our concentration in energy stocks negatively impacted our cumulative results for April.

S&P 500 May Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of May has been solid historically, but strength has been concentrated in the first and last weeks of the month. Since 1950, May has produced an annualized return of 3.49% on the S&P 500, which ranks 8th among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout May on the S&P 500:

• May 1-5: +30.14%
• May 6-25: -11.11%
• May 26-31: +36.18%

The NASDAQ's May performance (+13.17%) has been much stronger than the S&P 500, likely due to a larger presence of growth stocks. Check out these two charts, the first showing QQQ vs. SPY relative outperformance since 2013 (during secular bull market) and the second showing excellent historical results in May for the influential semiconductor space ($DJUSSC):

QQQ vs. SPY

At the bottom of each calendar month, you'll find average May QQQ vs. SPY outperformance. May's is the highest.

$DJUSSC vs. SPY

Semiconductors are an undisputed relative leader during May. They've outperformed the S&P 500 during 12 of the last 13 years in May. It's not a guarantee, but it's certainly bullish evidence for semis.

Sector Performance

Technology (XLK) loves May. Communication services (XLC) is also a solid May performer. Consumer stocks, both discretionary (XLY) and staples (XLP) have historically struggled during May. Technically, the XLK has a hurdle to jump - price resistance from its rebound high in latter March:

There are still plenty of issues on this chart, but we also need to acknowledge the improvements made in April. Keep in mind that the XLK represents 30% of the weighting on the S&P 500. Getting this sector right is very important to calling the overall market and to trading more successfully. We first need to respect the price resistance around 218-219. Many times, if we're likely to head higher down the road, we'll see a slight breach of price resistance, so perhaps the XLK trades up to 200-221 before pulling back. That's a possibility. Make no mistake about it, however. If the XLK can simply power through another very critical resistance level, further distancing itself from the early-April low, this chart turns VERY BULLISH.

Industry Performance

Let's look at technology stocks, where we've seen consistent relative outperformance during May in the past. Semiconductors ($DJUSSC), in my view, are absolutely the group to keep a very close eye on. When this group moves to the upside, it tends to be explosive. It's showing that tendency right now:

When you look at this chart, does it look like there's no chance we could go lower? I certainly wouldn't say that. I love the improvement, but there are still plenty of key areas to clear. But in a secular bull market, these levels are cleared and I expect this one to be no different eventually. The key word is "eventually".

What makes semiconductors so tricky is that this is the exact same group that would likely get hit the hardest during an extended trade war with China. So it's not like we should just buy the group, put it away, and not worry. The whipsaw possibilities are very real and every investor or trader needs to understand that. If you cannot stomach the risk of a fast-moving and volatile industry group, then consider investing in semiconductors using a more diversified approach, like trading the XLK, or even the QQQ, for instance. It's also important to understand how the stock market works. It prices in potential worries and uncertainties. That's why the S&P 500 bottoms when most investors and traders least expect it. It prices in the uncertainty at the very beginning of the uncertainty and finds a bottom and heads higher based on more bullish prospects 6-9 months out.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during March:

Technology (XLK):

• renewable energy, semiconductors, computer hardware

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• toys, tires

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• marine transportation, building materials & fixtures

Financials (XLF):

• mortgage finance, full line insurance, specialty finance, insurance brokers

Health care (XLV):

• health care providers, medical supplies

Consumer staples (XLP):

• none

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for May

We've selected our Top 20 seasonal stocks for May. Several names represent sectors and industry groups that have been discussed above. Others simply stand out in May based on their own historical track record. Here are our Top 20 Seasonality stocks for May:

• CRWD
• CZR
• LYV
• TMUS
• AMD
• NVDA
• ENPH
• AVGO
• TTWO
• MCK
• EA
• MRVL
• NFLX
• ON
• HUM
• ALB
• REGN
• IT
• EPAM
• MU

A "Seasonality - May 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created this weekend and will be available for viewing/download by early Monday morning. You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

I apologize for the week delay in providing you the March seasonality information. In hindsight, it turned out to be rather fortuitous since March has gotten off to such a rough start. Still, thanks for your patience and understanding as I took my medical-related trip to Florida recently. We are now caught up on all of our Reports and ChartLists. The Seasonality ChartList for March hasn't been posted, but should be available on our website later today or tomorrow.

A Look Back At February Stocks:

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of February. Here are how they performed in February 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• TPL: +10.08%
• FTNT: +7.07%
• BKNG: +5.88%
• NVDA: +4.04%
• NXPI: +3.38%
• PANW: +3.26%
• CPAY: -3.53%
• ENPH: -7.95%
• AVGO: -9.87%
• CDW: -10.52%
• CF: -12.14%
• AMAT: -12.35%
• MOS: -14.23%
• URI: -15.27%
• CDNS: -15.83%
• BLDR: -16.91%
• ANET: -19.25%
• ZBRA: -19.62%
• SWKS: -24.90%
• TTD: -40.75%

The percentages represent the returns from the January 31st close to the February 28th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (-9.47%) was the worst of any month that I can recall and badly lagged the S&P 500 (-1.27%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-2.70%). Our biggest February winner was Texas Pacific Land (TPL), an exploration & production stock ($DJUSOS), which was odd given that the DJUSOS was flat for the month.

14 of our 20 stocks were DOWN in February, with more than half of them down at least 10%. Overall, it was a brutally-weak February for our Seasonality Top 20 picks, one month after having such a strong January.

S&P 500 March Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of March has been solid historically, but has favored more defensive and value-oriented stocks. Since 1950, March has produced an annualized return of 13.38% on the S&P 500, which ranks 5th among all calendar months. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout March on the S&P 500:

• March 1-5: +43.17%
• March 6-9: -23.18%
• March 10-18: +32.69%
• March 19-22: -19.50%
• March 23-31: +12.31%

The NASDAQ isn't quite as strong during March as the S&P 500, likely due to a larger presence of growth stocks. The NASDAQ has produced annualized returns of 9.90% during March since 1971, ranking 8th out of the 12 calendar months.

Sector Performance

Last month, I said, "February is not a great month, but we do typically see seasonal strength in industrials (XLI), which has outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 by an average of 1.5 percentage points during February since 2012. The XLI has also outperformed the S&P 500 in February during 9 of the last 12 years, or 75% of the time."

The XLI did slightly outperform the S&P 500 last month, though both finished lower.

Moving into March, there's no question what sectors perform best. It's the defensive sectors. We've discussed many times that growth tends to take a back seat to value during the 2nd half of calendar months. So it should come as no surprise that March favors more defensive and value-oriented stocks.

Industry Performance

I highlighted aerospace ($DJUSAS) and defense ($DJUSDN) as areas that typically perform well during February. In particular, I liked aerospace as it looked better technically. Despite a lot of selling in February across most areas of the market, the DJUSAS did hold up well. An emerging negative divergence and a final false breakout derailed the group late in February:

So let's move on to March and focus on utilities (XLU), consumer staples (XLP), and real estate (XLRE). These 3 groups have shown consistent relative strength in March, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.9%, 1.2%, and 1.0%, respectively, during this secular bull market (since 2013). The strongest industry group in all 3 sectors has been conventional electricity ($DJUSVE). It's a boring group, but boring can be good if the rest of the stock market struggles. Here's how the DJUSVE looks currently:

Utilities and conventional electricity got off to a weak start to March, but the latter is definitely strengthening in both absolute and relative terms. It's now trading at a 3-month plus relative high (blue circle). Also, the DJUSVE is now trading much closer to key support than it is to key resistance, providing a fairly strong reward-to-risk trade for those wanting to be in more defensive positions this month.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during March:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, computer hardware, telecommunication equipment

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• broadline retailers

Communication Services (XLC):

• none

Industrials (XLI):

• waste & disposal services, delivery services, business support services

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• food products, food retailers & wholesalers, nondurable household products, brewers, distillers & vintners

Real estate (XLRE):

• specialty REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• conventional electricity, multiutilities, gas distribution, water

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• gold mining, mining, steel

Stocks for March

We've selected our Top 20 seasonal stocks for March. Several names represent sectors and industry groups that have been discussed above. Others simply stand out in March based on their own historical track record. I apologize for the delay this month, but the good news is that many of the following stocks have been laggards in early March. We'll track these stocks (and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100), beginning from the Friday, March 7th close. Here are our Top 20 Seasonality stocks for March:

• LULU
• ANET
• CMG
• EQIX
• EPAM
• MPWR
• CTRA
• FSLR
• TPL
• STLD
• TTWO
• EQT
• NUE
• VST
• BLDR
• ULTA
• CAG
• WST
• EXR
• KDP

A "Seasonality - March 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be available for viewing/download later today or tomorrow. You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of January. Here are how they performed in January 2025, in order of best to worst performer:

• TEAM: +26.05%
• META: +17.71%
• DXCM: +11.65%
• CIVI: +10.66%
• HCA: +9.92%
• NFLX: +9.59%
• WDC: +9.22%
• VLO: +8.49%
• MU: +8.41%
• DPZ: +6.99%
• PHM: +4.48%
• WYNN: +0.80%
• NXPI: +0.34%
• FANG: +0.32%
• TSLA: +0.19%
• HOLX: +0.07%
• ILMN: -0.67%
• WBD: -1.23%
• NOW: -3.94%
• CELH: -5.16%

The percentages represent the returns from the December 31st close to the January 31st close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+5.69%) significantly outperformed both the S&P 500 (+2.69%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+2.16%). Our biggest January winner was Atlassian Corp (TEAM), a software stock ($DJUSSW), which soared during January on extremely heavy volume and then added more after its quarterly earnings were released on Thursday, January 30th. The internet group ($DJUSNS) also helped our January performance as both META and NFLX reacted bullishly to their respective quarterly earnings reports.

16 of our 20 stocks were UP in January, with our worst performer being Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH), which lost 5.16%. Overall, it was a very strong January for our Seasonality Top 20 picks.

S&P 500 February Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of February has been relatively flat historically. Since 1950, February outperforms only one other calendar month (September) on the S&P 500. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout February on the S&P 500:

• February 1-3: +43.17%
• February 4-11: -11.80%
• February 12-15: +39.20%
• February 16-29: -15.45%

February's annualized return since 1950 is +0.04%, which ranks as the S&P 500's 11th best calendar month. The NASDAQ shows a bit more strength as it has an annualized return of 6.85% since 1971, which ranks 10th out of 12 calendar months.

Sector Performance

Last month, I discussed the communication services sector's (XLC) seasonal strength in January, highlighting "we typically see a very strong communications services sector (XLC), which has averaged gaining 3.7% during the month since 2013, the year the current secular bull market was confirmed. The XLC has performed way better than the S&P 500, which has gained an average of 0.8% during January since 2013. Technically, the XLC struggled in December as it fought a negative divergence, which ultimately resulted in a 50-day SMA test and is closing in on a PPO centerline test after earlier printing a negative divergence. It now appears that the PPO has been reset near the centerline, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see the XLC start to outperform in January 2025." I further pointed out the following on internet stocks ($DJUSNS) in January:

"Internet has outperformed the S&P 500 during EVERY January since 2013, except one. That was in January 2022 as that year's cyclical bear market began that month. The relative performance of internet stocks in January has been truly remarkable, so keep an eye on stocks like NFLX, META, and GOOGL as the month gets underway."

Here's what the XLC chart looked like at the time:

We saw that negative divergence result in a PPO centerline test and a 50-day SMA test to unwind the negative divergence. The XLC performed very well in January 2025, as we suggested, finishing the month higher by 5.75%, trailing only health care (XLV, +6.76%) and financials (XLF, +6.50%). Internet ($DJUSNS, +12.02%) soared, led by both META and NFLX to the upside, aiding our Top 20 Seasonality stocks for January. Check out the January surge on the XLC after we gave it plenty of love heading into 2025:

The good news is that the daily PPO nows looks extremely bullish as price breaks out to all-time highs. There's a negative divergence issue on the weekly chart, however, that will need to be addressed at some point.

February is not a great month, but we do typically see seasonal strength in industrials (XLI), which has outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 by an average of 1.5 percentage points during February since 2012. The XLI has also outperformed the S&P 500 in February during 9 of the last 12 years, or 75% of the time.

Industry Performance

Nearly every industry group within industrials has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2012. Marine transportation ($DJUSMT) has been the strongest group, but I find this group to be extremely volatile. I'd instead look towards two other industries, defense ($DJUSDN) and aerospace ($DJUSAS), which have outperformed the S&P 500 by and average of 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

One of these groups clearly looks much better technically right now - aerospace. Check out both charts:

$DJUSAS

$DJUSDN

Both industries were showing excellent uptrends and relative strength until Q4 2024. Since that time, however, the DJUSAS consolidated in a bullish wedge and broke out to the upside, while the DJUSDN just simply broke down.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during February:

Technology (XLK):

• semiconductors, telecommunication equipment, renewable energy, electrical components

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• travel & tourism, hotels, gambling, specialty retailers, auto parts

Communication Services (XLC):

• media agencies

Industrials (XLI):

• marine transportation, airlines, heavy construction, trucking, commercial vehicles & trucks, industrial suppliers, railroads, industrial machinery, building materials & fixtures

Financials (XLF):

• insurance brokers, consumer finance, property & casualty insurance, specialty finance

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• tobacco

Real estate (XLRE):

• real estate services

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• coal

Materials (XLB):

• nonferrous metals, steel, aluminum, paper

Stocks for February

We've selected our Top 20 seasonal stocks for February. Several names represent sectors and industry groups that have been discussed above. Others simply stand out in February based on their own historical track record. Here are our Top 20 Seasonality stocks for February:

• TTD
• ENPH
• BKNG
• FTNT
• MOS
• CF
• ANET
• TPL
• NVDA
• SWKS
• NXPI
• CPAY
• AMAT
• PANW
• ZBRA
• URI
• CDW
• BLDR
• AVGO
• CDNS

A "Seasonality - February 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be available for viewing/download on Monday. You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of December. Here are how they performed in December 2024, in order of best to worst performer:

• AVGO: +43.42%
• LLY: -2.94%
• IVZ: -3.37%
• RCL: -5.26%
• LYV: -6.33%
• SMCI: -6.62%
• ILMN: -7.30%
• VTR: -7.38%
• MGM: -9.62%
• ARE: -10.29%
• TMUS: -10.61%
• ON: -11.35%
• NVR: -11.44%
• EXR: -11.59%
• LW: -13.48%
• STX: -14.19%
• MHK: -14.19%
• WDC: -18.30%
• LEN: -21.80%
• BLDR: -23.35%

The percentages represent the returns from the November 30th close to the December 31st close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (-8.30%) significantly underperformed both the S&P 500 (-2.41%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.45%). Our biggest December winner was Broadcom, Inc., a semiconductor stock ($DJUSSC), which soared during December on extremely heavy volume after its quarterly earnings were released mid-month. On the flip side, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), was our worst December performer and had only 3 hollow candles (daily close above daily open) the entire month.

19 of our 20 stocks were DOWN in December, with only AVGO finishing the month higher than it started. It was BY FAR the worst monthly performance by our Top 20 monthly seasonal stocks during all of 2024. Interestingly, December 2023 was the best monthly performance by our Top 20 monthly seasonal stocks during all of 2023. So we've seen extreme December performance in both directions among these strong seasonal stocks in the last two years.

Real estate (XLRE) and utilities (XLU) tend to perform extremely well during the month of December. However, December 2024 was an anomaly as the XLRE and XLU posted losses of -8.65% and -7.97%, respectively. Quite clearly, this led to the awful seasonal performance produced last month.

S&P 500 January Performance

Here's a breakdown of the annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of January, a slightly bullish month historically. It is important to note that while January is just mildly bullish on the S&P 500, the NASDAQ does produce much more bullish results as January (+30.19%) ranks as the NASDAQ's best month of the year, easily outpacing November (+25.36%), which is the NASDAQ's 2nd best month. Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout January on the S&P 500:

• January 1-6: +37.03%
• January 7-9: -30.34%
• January 10-18: +16.34%
• January 19-22: -21.15%
• January 23-31: +24.71%

January's annualized return since 1950 is +12.84%, which ranks as the S&P 500's 6th best calendar month. So again, January is bullish on the S&P 500 historically, just not nearly as bullish as it is on the NASDAQ.

Sector Performance

Last month, I thought we'd see a nice bounce in real estate (XLRE) off of 50-day SMA support after it appeared that the handle in a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern was complete. Here's what I was looking at on the XLRE chart in early December:

That never materialized, however, and you can now see the rest of the December story:

I mentioned a month ago that I wanted "to see the XLRE:$SPX relative support (3 green arrows in bottom panel) level hold. If it does, we should begin to see real estate showing up more often at the top of the sector leaderboard in the next few days to few weeks." That relative support level was lost and more pain ensued in December, taking down many of our Top 20 seasonal stock picks for December.

In January, we typically see a very strong communications services sector (XLC), which has averaged gaining 3.7% during the month since 2013, the year the current secular bull market was confirmed. The XLC has performed way better than the S&P 500, which has gained an average of 0.8% during January since 2013. Technically, the XLC struggled in December as it fought a negative divergence, which ultimately resulted in a 50-day SMA test and is closing in on a PPO centerline test after earlier printing a negative divergence. It now appears that the PPO has been reset near the centerline, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see the XLC start to outperform in January 2025. Check out the current XLC chart:

The pink arrows highlight perfectly what I look for after a negative divergence prints - a zero line test on the PPO (rapidly approaching) and/or a 50-day SMA test.

Industry Performance

Internet ($DJUSNS) is a group within the XLC that LOVES the calendar month of January. Its average January gain since 2013 is 4.5% as you can see on the seasonality chart below:

You can see above that July appears to be a better month for internet stocks and it's true if you only consider the absolute performance. But let's look at relative performance and I think you'll see why I believe January is the group's best month:

Internet has outperformed the S&P 500 during EVERY January since 2013, except one. That was in January 2022 as that year's cyclical bear market began that month. The relative performance of internet stocks in January has been truly remarkable, so keep an eye on stocks like NFLX, META, and GOOGL as the month gets underway.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during January:

Technology (XLK):

• software, renewable energy

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• broadline retail, home construction, gambling, toys, specialty retail, automobiles, business training & employment agencies

Communication Services (XLC):

• internet

Industrials (XLI):

• airlines

Financials (XLF):

• specialty finance

Health care (XLV):

• medical equipment

Consumer staples (XLP):

• general retail, drug retail, brewers, tobacco

Real estate (XLRE):

• mortgage REITs

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• oil equipment & service, pipelines

Materials (XLB):

• gold mining

Stocks for January

We've selected our Top 20 seasonal stocks for January. Several names represent sectors and industry groups that have been discussed above. Others simply stand out in January based on their own historical track record.

The stocks this month, with average January performance and next earnings dates, will be updated on our website later today. In the meantime, I can tell you that stocks that typically perform well in January include NFLX, SMCI, ILMN, META, PHM, VLO, NXPI, HOLX, FANG, NOW, TSLA, DXCM, TEAM, WBD, and MU. Expect these stocks minus perhaps 1 or 2, to be on our Final Top 20 list later today.

A "Seasonality - January 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) will be created and should be available for viewing/download later today. You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom