002 Weekly Market Report

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 28, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:33:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists have been updated and have been posted to our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The Key Manipulation spreadsheet has been updated through Friday, September 25, 2026. You can view and/or download this spreadsheet from our website.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Interest rates have been wearing on specific, interest-rate-sensitive areas of the stock market. However, the large cap S&P 500, thus far, has been largely unaffected. I see no reason to change our long-term stance.

The long-term secular bull market uptrend remains in place.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Money is rotating HEAVILY into the more aggressive NASDAQ 100, which is historically a very bullish signal.

IWM:QQQ

Personally, I believe the current weakness is setting the IWM up with a very attractive long-term entry point. There's no question that the IWM is moving inversely with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) and the TNX is moving straight up right now. When that changes, and I believe we're getting fairly close to a long-term top in the TNX, the IWM should represent a high quality investment. Perhaps it makes sense to wait for this relative weakness to reverse before entering, however. Early October has not been kind to small caps since the late 1980s, at least based on historical data.

XLY:XLP

I'd say the consumer is not particularly healthy after looking at 2026 performance of both the XLY and the XLP. But if you stretch out the chart to 5 years, you'll see that both the XLY and XLP are in longer-term uptrends. So let's continue to have patience here. When the stock market senses that interest rate hikes have ended, I look for consumer stocks to perform exceptionally well. Until then....

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

I think it's a good idea to watch this signal regularly (weekly), which is why it's on this Weekly Market Report and will continue to be. One thing is absolutely certain at the moment. Wall Street is NOT pouring into staples stocks. And that should happen at ANY significant market top. I'm not saying we couldn't pull back in our key indices temporarily, but I'm convinced we will not see a significant market selloff at least into Q1 2027. I'm not saying we'll have one then either, but we can re-evaluate at that time.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The 5-day CPCE is cause for concern near-term. Any time this signal hits 0.50 or lower, we've had tendencies to run into short-term market issues. Given that it's late September, I certainly don't want to rule out a bit of short-term weakness before potentially bottoming sometime in October. Historically, that makes a lot of sense.

The IWM, as I mentioned earlier, has been sold off hard and could look to rebound. Maybe we'll see a bit of short-term rotation from large caps to small caps in the near-term? It's something to think about.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction and the hesitation that traders have right now. A downtrend in this ratio generally accompanies a large secular bull market rally in the S&P 500, while an uptrend can spell trouble or, at the very least, lots of back and forth action of this benchmark index. That's been its history. Over the past year, this 253-day SMA can't make up its mind. I view this as neutral currently.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th:

JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: CCL ($30 billion)
Wednesday: MU ($1.22 trillion), JBL ($33 billion)
Thursday: ACN ($118 billion), NKE ($53 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: July Case-Shiller home price index, September consumer confidence, August JOLTS
Wednesday: September ADP employment report, Q2 GDP (final estimate), August wholesale & retail inventories, August personal income & spending, August PCE index
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, September PMI manufacturing, September ISM manufacturing, August construction spending
Friday: September employment report, unemployment rate & average hourly earnings, August factory orders

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 28: +67.63% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+14.17% over 53 trading days since 1950. +14.17% x 253/53 = +67.63%)
Sep 29: -86.65%
Sep 30: -19.23%
Oct 1: +53.74%
Oct 2: +38.36%
Oct 3: -11.03%
Oct 4: +45.76%
Oct 5: +66.17%
Oct 6: +36.20%
Oct 7: -36.76%
Oct 8: +9.31%
Oct 9: -61.11%
Oct 10: -1.68%
Oct 11: +28.18%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 28: +57.82%
Sep 29: -93.72%
Sep 30: +3.33%
Oct 1: +17.90%
Oct 2: -40.39%
Oct 3: -9.25%
Oct 4: +57.17%
Oct 5: +41.24%
Oct 6: +5.37%
Oct 7: -81.43%
Oct 8: +10.81%
Oct 9: -49.54%
Oct 10: -7.89%
Oct 11: +79.53%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 28: +78.91%
Sep 29: -48.31%
Sep 30: +45.33%
Oct 1: -29.34%
Oct 2: -72.07%
Oct 3: -79.80%
Oct 4: +85.41%
Oct 5: +31.68%
Oct 6: -23.34%
Oct 7: -156.30%
Oct 8: -63.96%
Oct 9: -139.03%
Oct 10: +98.17%
Oct 11: +30.34%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) spiked big time last week, surging above the key psychological 5.00% level with relative ease. That kept pressure on many interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market, which I spoke about last week. Small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), homebuilders (XHB), and transports (IYT) all were under serious pressure and remain there.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The pressure from higher yields remains a primary concern as the 10-year treasury yield has surged above 5.25%, the highest yield we've seen since the 2007 secular bear market top. I'm of the opinion that we can handle a TNX in the 5.00%-5.50% range, but above that becomes much dicier, in my opinion. Right now, there are few signs of Wall Street bailing on U.S. equities. Therefore, I believe it remains prudent for long-term investors to stick with stocks.

Sentiment. While the market has remained resilient, which should be construed as a positive, we've also seen the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) plummet. The 5-day moving average has fallen to nearly 0.50, the lowest level since early June, when we saw a significant top in many aggressive areas. While this indicator is not associated with long-term tops, it can be very instrumental in marking short-term tops. The 5-day CPCE is now in the bearish camp - at least for now.

Technical Conditions. One piece of really good news is that we've now negotiated much of September, including the worst part of it (September 21-27), without any significant deterioration in technical conditions. Small caps (IWM) have certainly been under pressure with rates rising, but many of the larger cap names have avoided significant selling. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is trading at its 20-day EMA, as of this writing, while the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) remains above both its 20-day and 50-day MAs.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 21, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 21 Sep 2026 12:45:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists have been updated and will be posted to our website later today, if they haven't already been:

Strong AD (SADCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The Strong Earnings (SECL), Strong Future Earnings (SFECL), and Raised Guidance (RGCL) ChartLists were updated within the same ChartList as last week. In order to get the updated version, simply re-download the ChartLists that you downloaded last week from our website. The same passwords will work.

The Key Manipulation spreadsheet has been updated through Friday, September 18, 2026. You can view and/or download this spreadsheet from our website.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since July 2023 this past week. While that may seem like an event that could impact the long-term secular bull market currently in place, history tells us this is not the case. We do, many times, weaken for a brief period after a new hiking cycle begins, but that typically wears off and the stock market pushes to new highs. Therefore, I'd continue to ignore the media noise and remain IN the market for the long-term.

Stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

This chart tells me that being bearish is NOT the proper call right now. Could we move lower in the near-term? Sure, anything can happen and we know it's September. But intraday rotation is showing that money is rotating INTO more large-cap growth-oriented stocks. That is NOT the type of behavior we see prior to a major market decline. I'll stick with my bullish long-term stance.

IWM:QQQ

The Fed rate hike squeezes interest margins at small to mid-size banks, potentially cutting borrowing capacity for smaller companies. That short-term issue has absolutely sent investors to the small cap sidelines, at least relative to larger caps. The above chart clearly reflects this, in my view. Small caps are likely to become a solid relative investment again, but Wall Street may need to see the end of the rate hike cycle at the end of the tunnel before that relative strength becomes a reality. I suspect that will be sometime during Q4, possibly the next 4-6 weeks. So long as this relative ratio is declining, the IWM is struggling to keep pace with its large cap counterparts.

XLY:XLP

While I wouldn't call this ratio "bullish", I also wouldn't say it's guaranteeing us a big market drop. The long-term ratio does remain in an uptrend, while it's been mostly sideways in 2026. The intraday behavior (top panel) over the summer shows a relative decline in consumer discretionary - perhaps because of growing expectations of a Fed rate hike cycle. We do remain above the April 2025 and February 2026 intraday ratio lows, though the ratio is approaching that February low. I'll be keeping a close eye on this ratio, but I believe we'll see a turn higher before any breakdowns occur.

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

I think it's a good idea to watch this signal regularly (weekly), which is why it's on this Weekly Market Report and will continue to be. We're squarely back in neutral near 100, so it's providing us nothing of use at the moment. For those of you thinking that we're about to have a major drop in the S&P 500, just understand that this signal does not agree with you. I'm a believer in the "there's always a first time for everything", but 106+ readings in this signal have been common place before major selloffs and it makes good common sense to me that we'd see major rotation into staples prior to a big selloff.

It would be fairly unusual for this signal to reach 106 and flash a major top as we move into Q4. I believe the time to keep an eye on this signal would be in the January/February time frame. We'll certainly keep you posted on what we're seeing.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

The current reading near 100 is neutral, so it can be ignored for now. It's not giving us a BUY or SELL signal. Always keep in mind that this is just one secondary indicator worth monitoring. It's part of my risk management strategy. My goal is to simply make these secondary indicators stronger and stronger and more reliable, not to provide us guarantees.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

There's been little change in this short-term indicator. It remains neutral and isn't signaling any directional clues.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th:

JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: AZO ($46 billion)
Wednesday: CTAS ($80 billion), PAYX ($41 billion), GIS ($20 billion)
Thursday: COST ($396 billion), DRI ($24 billion), SNX ($21 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August new home sales
Friday: August durable goods, September consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 21: -66.86% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-14.27% over 54 trading days since 1950. -14.27% x 253/54 = -66.86%)
Sep 22: -18.36%
Sep 23: -48.37%
Sep 24: -30.23%
Sep 25: -28.14%
Sep 26: -57.92%
Sep 27: +5.43%
Sep 28: +67.63%
Sep 29: -86.65%
Sep 30: -19.23%
Oct 1: +53.74%
Oct 2: +38.36%
Oct 3: -11.03%
Oct 4: +45.76%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 21: -95.89%
Sep 22: -56.66%
Sep 23: -67.66%
Sep 24: -23.00%
Sep 25: -32.24%
Sep 26: -58.92%
Sep 27: -31.75%
Sep 28: +57.82%
Sep 29: -93.72%
Sep 30: +3.33%
Oct 1: +17.90%
Oct 2: -40.39%
Oct 3: -9.25%
Oct 4: +57.17%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 21: -172.80%
Sep 22: -93.93%
Sep 23: -81.42%
Sep 24: -51.74%
Sep 25: -28.38%
Sep 26: -47.06%
Sep 27: +29.24%
Sep 28: +78.91%
Sep 29: -48.31%
Sep 30: +45.33%
Oct 1: -29.34%
Oct 2: -72.07%
Oct 3: -79.80%
Oct 4: +85.41%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The Fed did exactly what both the bond and stock markets believed they would do. They raised the fed funds rate by a quarter point, initiating the first interest-rate-hiking cycle since July 2023. Is it a bad thing? Not necessarily, but there is some historical precedent to seeing short-term weakness on the S&P 500 for a period of time after that first rate hike. Yahoo Finance reported last week that the average loss on the S&P 500 6 weeks after the first rate hike is roughly 4%, dating back to the 1990s. I did not verify these numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're correct. The article went on to say that one year after the first hike, the S&P 500 averaged gaining 9% from the date of that first hike. That also doesn't surprise me.

If our economy is strengthening or expected to strengthen, I believe the proper investment move is to allocate more to the stock market and less to the bond market. That strategy sends bond prices lower and corresponding yields higher. That strategy also sends stock prices higher. I believe the real question is......did the Fed raise rates due to rising inflation and an expected continuation of inflationary pressures.....or did the Fed raise rates due to a resilient and potentially-strengthening economy that could derail all prior steps taken to contain inflation? Personally, I believe it's the latter. If the US-Iran war ended tomorrow and crude oil dropped, I do not believe this rate-hiking campaign would last long. I view the Fed's move as somewhat "preventative", not reactionary. But as long as the threat of the current rate-hiking cycle continues, interest-sensitive areas could remain under pressure. They include small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), homebuilders (XHB), transporation (IYT), and others. All of those areas have underperformed since the Fed announcement at 2pm ET on Wednesday. I plan to keep watching these areas for clues that the Fed is ending or approaching the end of its rate hiking.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. I know the Fed has come and gone, but this will be a lingering concern. Will we see a definitive break of 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) resistance at 5.00%. That yield resistance level has held for nearly two decades. A sustained move above it could be a contributing factor in any short-term stock market weakness.

Seasonality. As mentioned last week, the second half of September typically produces much worse results than the first half. The second worst week of the year historically (since 1950) is September 21-27, which starts TODAY. If we're going to see a declining S&P 500, I firmly believe it'll happen over the next 4-6 weeks.

Max Pain. Yes, monthly options expired on Friday. But if you've been an EB member for awhile, or have even been a follower of EB for awhile, then you know that the Monday that follows monthly-options-expiration Friday is the worst day of the calendar month, bar none. That is TODAY.

Technical Conditions. While I believe it still makes sense to be cautious from a short-term trading perspective (I'm always somewhat cautious in the August/September/October time frame), we haven't seen any technical confirmation of a significant selloff. We have mostly been trading sideways, with many areas even moving back up above where they were when the Fed announced its hike on Wednesday afternoon.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 14, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:12:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, September 11, 2026. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

IMPORTANT NOTE - There will be very few earnings reports this week, so we will not update our ChartLists again until Friday, September 25th.

Weekly Market Recap

Normally, the following 6 images are captured PRIOR to the Monday opening bell. However, this week, the images were captured after the market opened, so they will not depict only last week's action. Instead, today's early market action is reflected in the results.

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

September is well underway and we know the history of the month isn't great, particularly the second half of the month. But historical performance is no different than technical conditions or fundamental news, when it comes to the long-term. None of it matters if you're most interested in the long-term performance of the S&P 500.

Stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The intraday rotation last week was fairly solid, especially considering the relative strength we saw the week before in the QQQ. I'd say, overall, the more aggressive QQQ held up quite well as we've managed to navigate the first half of September. The second half of September, however, is where damage is typically inflicted.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM is the ETF that tracks the Russell 2000) has been in an uptrend throughout 2026, but there've been a few cracks in the foundation of small caps lately, possibly because of the prospects of an upcoming rate hike in the fed funds rate on Wednesday. I'd feel better about the stock market if the IWM regains its earlier absolute and relative momentum. Until then, it probably makes sense to remain a bit cautious.

XLY:XLP

I continue to watch this ratio very closely as it's one of my favorite sustainability ratios. If the S&P 500 can move higher and break to new all-time highs with a rising XLY:XLP ratio, I grow much more bullish. We did see a bit of upside in the ratio last week, but we'd need a lot more for me to turn overwhelmingly bullish in the near-term.

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

Here's where this signal currently resides:

The current reading near 100 is neutral, so it's basically telling us nothing. It's not giving us a BUY or SELL signal. Always keep in mind that this is just one secondary indicator worth monitoring. It's part of my risk management strategy. My goal is to simply make these secondary indicators stronger and stronger and more reliable, not to provide us guarantees.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

I'm watching this indicator week to week, but it currently remains in neutral territory.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction that traders have right now when considering future market direction. The back and forth represents indecision. Nothing has changed here over the past several weeks.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th:

JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: LEN ($19 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, September empire manufacturing survey
Wednesday: August retail sales, September NAHB housing market index, FOMC policy decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August housing starts & building permits, September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, August pending home sales
Friday: August industrial production & capacity utilization, August leading indicators

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 14: +35.62% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+7.46% over 53 trading days since 1950. +7.46% x 253/53 = +35.62%)
Sep 15: -15.42%
Sep 16: +75.14%
Sep 17: -59.17%
Sep 18: +24.46%
Sep 19: +19.39%
Sep 20: -48.24%
Sep 21: -66.86%
Sep 22: -18.36%
Sep 23: -48.37%
Sep 24: -30.23%
Sep 25: -28.14%
Sep 26: -57.92%
Sep 27: +5.43%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 14: +65.92%
Sep 15: -43.31%
Sep 16: +37.98%
Sep 17: -90.41%
Sep 18: +33.87%
Sep 19: +93.70%
Sep 20: -37.69%
Sep 21: -95.89%
Sep 22: -56.66%
Sep 23: -67.66%
Sep 24: -23.00%
Sep 25: -32.24%
Sep 26: -58.92%
Sep 27: -31.75%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 14: +58.36%
Sep 15: -34.36%
Sep 16: +82.55%
Sep 17: -124.30%
Sep 18: +75.90%
Sep 19: +2.34%
Sep 20: -97.95%
Sep 21: -172.80%
Sep 22: -93.93%
Sep 23: -81.42%
Sep 24: -51.74%
Sep 25: -28.38%
Sep 26: -47.06%
Sep 27: +29.24%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The likelihood of a rate hike has spiked after inflation reports were released last Thursday and Friday. I don't necessarily see this as a problem, especially in the long-term. However, it's certainly possible that it could provide some anxious moments in the second half of September and into October, especially if there's a definitive break in the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) above 5.00% (it moved to 5.01% briefly this morning)

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. Well, what will the Fed do on Wednesday? And what type of language might we see about the next meeting? Might another rate hike be in order? Wall Street will definitely be watching for clues and so will we.

Seasonality. The second half of September typically produces much worse results than the first half. Today is the 14th. The second worst week of the year is September 21-27, which encompasses ALL of next week.

Max Pain. Monthly options expire this Friday. We sent out our September Max Pain Report earlier, so check out the potential upside/downside for many popular names, including all of the stocks in our Portfolios. Our current Portfolios remain invested throughout the quarter and until November 19th, 2026, but if you trade, you should certainly be aware of max pain levels of stocks that you own to make conscious decisions about risk you're willing to take.

Technical Conditions. The S&P 500 lost 7609.78 support last week, but then subsequently recovered back above that level. The 50-day SMA is currently at 7610.50 and the closing low established last week was 7591.70. The combination of those two levels is the approximate 20-point range where I'd be looking for support.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Tom Bowley` — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:42:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, September 4, 2026. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Any time an RSI moves above 70, it's a signal of overbought conditions. However, during secular bull market advances, it's quite common to see the monthly RSI move above 70 - and even stay there for awhile. The late 1990s saw the monthly RSI push above 70 and stay there for a few years. Using the monthly RSI as a primary indicator and selling and moving to cash when it hits 70 is, more often than not, a mistake. In fact, if you look at the chart above, even brief stays above 70 tend to result in more sideways, consolidation behavior, as opposed to outright selling. Monthly readings at or near 70 during secular bear markets, though, mark significant tops.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The intraday rotation last week was solidly in favor of QQQ. In fact, I'd go as far as to say it was one of the best weeks of intraday rotation that we've seen in months. The bottom panel shows that if we include opening gaps, the rotation was relatively flat. Continuation of this rotational behavior should be viewed quite bullishly.

IWM:QQQ

Last week, we saw a continuation of IWM weakness from the prior week. The good news, however, was that the IWM was the primary focus of buying on Friday. After gapping down at the open, the IWM rose throughout the trading day, finishing near its high of the day. It's way too early to tell whether this is a significant reversal, or just a relative bounce in a downtrend.

XLY:XLP

As the S&P 500 rebounded last week to approach all-time highs again, we saw a similar problem. The XLY vs XLP ratio barely budged, leaving us to question if a breakout to an all-time high can be sustained. I can only tell you from history that S&P 500 breakouts with a lagging XLY:XLP ratio usually don't end well. Based on this, watch to see if this ratio picks up to accompany an S&P 500 breakout, if one occurs.

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

Questions from members arose after I posted this chart last week, and understandably so. Many of those questions dealt with the behavior of this signal moving up and down during various bullish and bearish periods. I want to emphasize that high readings in this signal (ie, above 106) are not expected to be bearish every time. In fact, during secular bull market advances, a "rising tide lifts all boats", meaning that consumer staples can be expected to rise at times during secular bull markets. If everything is going up, the fact that consumer staples are rising doesn't necessarily provide a bearish warning. Again, consider this signal as SECONDARY, not PRIMARY. Every significant selloff since 1999 occurred with this signal printing 106 or higher just prior to the selloff. The only exception was in 2020 during the pandemic. This makes sense to me, because my belief is that Wall Street sees major weakness ahead, which is why the staples accumulation occurs in the first place. No one could have seen the pandemic and its effects a month or two in advance.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Please note that the signal does move above 100 quite often, so readings above 100 should not be considered overly alarming. I'm planning to calculate a similar signal for the consumer discretionary area (XLY). It may turn out that a combination of the XLY and XLP cumulative signals proves to be extraordinarily accurate in forecasting trouble ahead. That's my goal, to establish a reliable SECONDARY indicator to warn us ahead of time. I want to stress that NO SIGNAL developed will replace the obvious PRIMARY signal, which is the combination of price action and volume.

Every secondary indicator that I use is part of my risk management strategy. My goal is to simply make these secondary indicators stronger and stronger and more reliable, not to provide us guarantees.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

I'm watching this indicator week to week, but it currently remains in neutral territory.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th:

JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: CASY ($28 billion)
Wednesday: None
Thursday: ORCL ($444 billion), ADBE ($114 billion)
Friday: KR ($36 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None - Market Closed (Labor Day Holiday)
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August PPI, August existing home sales
Friday: August CPI, September consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 7: -8.58% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-1.46% over 43 trading days since 1950. -1.46% x 253/43 = -8.58%)
Sep 8: +9.40%
Sep 9: -39.40%
Sep 10: -19.21%
Sep 11: +26.07%
Sep 12: +14.42%
Sep 13: +14.64%
Sep 14: +35.62%
Sep 15: -15.42%
Sep 16: +75.14%
Sep 17: -59.17%
Sep 18: +24.46%
Sep 19: +19.39%
Sep 20: -48.24%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 7: +38.60%
Sep 8: -3.15%
Sep 9: -4.94%
Sep 10: -2.38%
Sep 11: +69.43%
Sep 12: +2.47%
Sep 13: +1.53%
Sep 14: +65.92%
Sep 15: -43.31%
Sep 16: +37.98%
Sep 17: -90.41%
Sep 18: +33.87%
Sep 19: +93.70%
Sep 20: -37.69%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 7: +31.72%
Sep 8: +48.76%
Sep 9: -22.42%
Sep 10: +2.18%
Sep 11: +82.44%
Sep 12: +63.15%
Sep 13: +44.65%
Sep 14: +58.36%
Sep 15: -34.36%
Sep 16: +82.55%
Sep 17: -124.30%
Sep 18: +75.90%
Sep 19: +2.34%
Sep 20: -97.95%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It was jobs week last week and while the numbers were better than expected, they cleared up nothing as far as interest rates go. In fact, a stronger-than-expected jobs number would add to the "raise rates" argument. It's an interesting debate, because if the economy is in the process of strengthening, it could very easily handle a 5% 10-year treasury yield. But, if the economy were strengthening, why would many cyclical areas of the market be so weak right now? Most discretionary areas are downtrending, not uptrending and prepping for a strong economy. So I hesitate to buy that argument.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. This remains my biggest concern. There is a precedence in place suggesting that a rapid rise in the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) could spark a U.S. stock selloff. My current signals suggest any such selloff would be a great opportunity to buy. I see just as many signals, however, that tell me a deep selloff (>5%) is unlikely. So what do we do? Well, from a long-term perspective, I would not chance trying to time a top, then bottom. I do believe it's quite possible that we have another solid September. I cannot rule it out, even though history tells us it isn't likely.

Seasonality. September is not a good month historically. I think we all know that by now. The most bearish part of the month is from the September 19th close through the September 26th close. It's the second worst week of the year, producing an ANNUALIZED return of -42.72% since 1950 on the S&P 500. That equates to roughly 0.80% per week. So don't think we're going to drop 42%. Again, that's an annualized number. The actual average loss each year is less than 1%. But that's an AVERAGE, so clearly there are years that have produced much bigger losses that week. The last two Septembers have ended HIGHER than they began, but results during the September 19-26 week were mixed. In September 2025, this period lost roughly 0.3%, while in September 2024, this period saw a gain of about 0.5%. To give you an idea of what can happen, however, consider this one week period in September 2023, when the S&P 500 lost nearly 4%. 4% would represent 300 S&P 500 points currently.

Economic Reports. There will be no economic reports of consequence during this upcoming holiday-shortened week until Thursday, when initial jobless claims, August PPI, and August existing home sales come out. Then, on Friday, we'll get the biggest report of the week, the August CPI. Tame inflation reports would likely lead to a more difficult and hotly-debated Fed verdict later this month. However, if inflation is reported higher than expected, especially if it's at the consumer level (CPI), then I expect the Fed to raise the fed funds rate by a quarter point when they meet. I don't believe it'll be the start of a series of hikes, however. Instead, I believe it would simply be the Fed sending a message that they will not tolerate higher inflation. I think it would also help to establish Fed Chief Warsh's credibility among his more-hawkish peers on the FOMC.

Technical Conditions. First and foremost, the S&P 500 fell back to test 7610 price support almost exactly. The low was 7611. That remains the first major price support level to watch. Obviously, the S&P 500 cannot have a big move lower in September/October without first clearing this important technical hurdle. There are technical reasons why we should expect that to happen. The S&P 500 has printed a negative divergence on its weekly chart. Any time I see a negative divergence, I immediately think, "50-period SMA test and/or PPO centerline test". The 50-week SMA is currently at 7070 and rising. Does that mean that I'm saying we're heading to 7070? NO. It means that the RISK of a selloff is higher, not that one will occur. Again, as I say quite often, technical analysis to me means "evaluation of risk", not guaranteed outcomes. Knowing that there's a negative divergence during a historically-bearish calendar period adds to the risk, that's all.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 31, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:39:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, August 28th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

It seems like we're continually climbing an uphill battle, based upon all the news and the negativity, but this chart says otherwise. It's telling long-term investors to ignore all the noise and stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

From a big picture perspective, this ratio topped in early June at the S&P 500 top then. The S&P 500 broke out again in August, but these ratios fell quite a bit between these two S&P 500 highs. It doesn't have a great look, and it could cause problems during the historically-bearish month of September, but I suppose, at the same time, it's encouraging that U.S. stocks have held up with the S&P 500 still very close to an all-time high.

IWM:QQQ

Last week's relative action was not good for small caps. Both of the ratios above hit new August lows as we closed out last week. I guess we'll find out if this was simply a "one off" or if it's the start of deeper relative weakness in the small cap area as we move through September.

XLY:XLP

It's not exact, but there are definitely some similarities between the action in our XLY:XLP ratios now and how they acted before both recent market tops in early 2025 and early 2026. I've shaded the two ratios in red to highlight their downtrends at a time when the S&P 500 is trying to move higher (blue-shaded areas).

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

Over the past week or two, I've been discussing a new consumer staples (XLP) signal that has triggered at major market tops in the past. These tops have occurred in the recent past when the 30-day cumulative consumer staples intraday signal reaches 106 or higher, suggesting a significant potential increase in Wall Street accumulation - the type of accumulation that would likely occur before a correction or cyclical bear market.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Please note that the signal does move above 100 quite often, so readings above 100 should not be considered overly alarming. It's also important to note that even a 106+ reading doesn't necessarily mean, "run for the hills!" I view it as a reason to consider the possibility of a market top. This signal is absolutely a SECONDARY indicator, not a PRIMARY indicator. It alerts us to potential trouble ahead. If it combines with many other signals, then the odds of a pullback (or worse) would grow.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

We remain in neutral. If we do see accelerated selling in September, we could see a significant move higher in this reading, possibly in the .70-.75 area, where a major market bottom could print.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction that traders have right now when considering future market direction. The back and forth represents indecision.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd:

JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: PANW ($312 billion), DELL ($306 billion), MDT ($115 billion), CRDO ($45 billion), MDB ($35 billion)
Wednesday: AVGO ($1.77 trillion), SNOW ($114 billion), HPE ($72 billion), NTAP ($37 billion)
Thursday: CIEN ($57 billion), ZS ($30 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: August PMI manufacturing, July construction spending, July JOLTS
Wednesday: August ADP employment report, July factory orders, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August PMI services
Friday: August nonfarm payrolls, unemployment report, & average hourly earnings

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Aug 31: +9.88% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+2.07% over 53 trading days since 1950. +2.07% x 253/53 = +9.88%)
Sep 1: +27.13%
Sep 2: +56.89%
Sep 3: -5.35%
Sep 4: -34.19%
Sep 5: -20.53%
Sep 6: +16.31%
Sep 7: -8.58%
Sep 8: +9.40%
Sep 9: -39.40%
Sep 10: -19.21%
Sep 11: +26.07%
Sep 12: +14.42%
Sep 13: +14.64%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Aug 31: +16.28%
Sep 1: +57.15%
Sep 2: +66.09%
Sep 3: -78.51%
Sep 4: -42.03%
Sep 5: -48.65%
Sep 6: -8.20%
Sep 7: +38.60%
Sep 8: -3.15%
Sep 9: -4.94%
Sep 10: -2.38%
Sep 11: +69.43%
Sep 12: +2.47%
Sep 13: +1.53%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Aug 31: +1.28%
Sep 1: +39.71%
Sep 2: +90.17%
Sep 3: -92.09%
Sep 4: +33.01%
Sep 5: -61.95%
Sep 6: -15.74%
Sep 7: +31.72%
Sep 8: +48.76%
Sep 9: -22.42%
Sep 10: +2.18%
Sep 11: +82.44%
Sep 12: +63.15%
Sep 13: +44.65%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

We started off last week a bit slow, but that wasn't too surprising when we consider that the Monday following monthly-options-expiration Friday is the worst day of the calendar month historically. Last week's low was on Monday, before we did see a bit of strength into week's end.

It's always a bit daunting as we head into September. The last two Septembers have shown strength, but the longer-term track record isn't bullish. Currently, the S&P 500 resides squarely on its 20-day EMA. Loss of that key moving average, along with key short-term price support at 7610, could lead to further technical selling, so keep that in mind.

For longer-term investors, however, I really don't see significant warning signs to suggest a lengthy decline or one that would potentially fall more than 10%. I think it makes much more sense to stay the course on the long side, rather than try to time potential selloffs.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. This remains my biggest concern. Higher interest rates could spook Wall Street near-term. The TNX is at 4.76% right now, the highest level we've seen since piercing 4.80% in January 2025. After that last move higher in the TNX in late 2024 and into early 2025, the S&P 500 saw a decline of roughly 20%, though the last 3 days of the drop represented half of the fall. Also, during the big TNX run up during Q3 2023 to 5.0%, the S&P 500 experienced a brief correction, losing more than 10%. An S&P 500 decline occurring simultaneously with a TNX spike is not unprecedented and something we need to watch for.

The Economy. Nonfarm payrolls will be out on Friday. They're expected to rebound in August to 50,000 after posting a negative 23,000 for July. Another negative surprise, however, could begin to spark talk of a recession, leaving the Fed in somewhat of a box.

Software. This group is emerging once again as a leader. Its relative strength has turned much more bullish and there are additional software companies reporting quarterly results this week, including SNOW, MDB, and PATH. I expect more solid results from the group.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 24, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 10:19:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL) - no changes from last week, same 20 stocks
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, August 21st. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The bottom panel in this chart represents a 20-year rate of change (ROC). I expect that we'll likely see this ROC peak in March 2029, which will be 20 years from the secular bear market low in March 2009.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Given the fact that it was monthly options expiration week and it's also light volume from last summer vacations, the slightly lower movement in this ratio isn't overly concerning. Also, we do continue to hold onto recent relative lows as support.

IWM:QQQ

This chart remains pretty solid. We're seeing small caps remain in an uptrend and their relative performance to the aggressive NASDAQ 100 is formidable as well. I'm not seeing anything to worry about from a technical perspective at this point.

XLY:XLP

I'm growing a bit more concerned about the short-term market prospects as this ratio continues to deteriorate. As I mentioned in the Live Trading Room this past Wednesday, I'm working on an analysis of intraday consumer staples (XLP) performance and how it relates to market tops. Historically, money rotates fairly heavily towards consumer staples as we approach significant market tops. Specifically, I'm watching the 30-day cumulative gains (losses) in the XLP. This 30-day cumulative performance has strongly correlated with significant tops and bottoms. Currently, the 30-day cumulative gain in the XLP is at +2.61%. That's not the type of reading associated with tops before cyclical bear markets, but it is consistent with the type of reading I might expect before a correction, especially if it continues to grow over the next couple weeks. Here's what the XLP is doing today:

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

We're in neutral right now, so I don't see sentiment playing a role in market direction at the moment.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

I still don't see a definitive signal here. This 253-day SMA has been quite choppy, reversing directions as options traders move back and forth from complacent to pessimistic.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd:

JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: PDD ($127 billion)
Tuesday: BMO ($121 billion), BNS ($105 billion), INTU ($99 billion), ZM ($31 billion)
Wednesday: NVDA ($5.25 trillion), CRWD ($194 billion), CRM ($168 billion), SNPS ($76 billion), VEEV ($41 billion)
Thursday: RY ($285 billion), MRVL ($220 billion), TD ($192 billion), ADSK ($53 billion), WDAY ($49 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: June Case-Shiller home price index, July new home sales
Wednesday: July durable goods, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), July personal income & spending, July PCE index
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, July wholesale inventories, July retail inventories
Friday: August Chicago PMI, August consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Aug 24: +3.37% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+0.72% over 54 trading days since 1950. +0.72% x 253/54 = +3.37%)
Aug 25: -22.28%
Aug 26: -1.75%
Aug 27: -1.57%
Aug 28: -7.53%
Aug 29: +28.52%
Aug 30: -22.73%
Aug 31: +9.88%
Sep 1: +27.13%
Sep 2: +56.89%
Sep 3: -5.35%
Sep 4: -34.19%
Sep 5: -20.53%
Sep 6: +16.31%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Aug 24: +11.28%
Aug 25: +25.58%
Aug 26: +27.04%
Aug 27: +13.91%
Aug 28: -16.97%
Aug 29: +66.05%
Aug 30: -34.86%
Aug 31: +16.28%
Sep 1: +57.15%
Sep 2: +66.09%
Sep 3: -78.51%
Sep 4: -42.03%
Sep 5: -48.65%
Sep 6: -8.20%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Aug 24: +32.69%
Aug 25: +5.58%
Aug 26: +2.36%
Aug 27: +31.06%
Aug 28: +14.19%
Aug 29: +152.41%
Aug 30: -69.37%
Aug 31: +1.28%
Sep 1: +39.71%
Sep 2: +90.17%
Sep 3: -92.09%
Sep 4: +33.01%
Sep 5: -61.95%
Sep 6: -15.74%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Max pain for the month of August is coming to an end. Yes, I know options expired on Friday, but the option effect can carry over into the following week. If calls are exercised rather than sold, market makers remain on the short side and still have incentive to take prices down. That's why the Monday that follows monthly-options-expiration Friday has such an ominous track record. How long does this options-related selling last? It's hard to say, but I believe there's an impact at least into the first couple days after monthly options expire.

Now we have September upon us. We've seen strong Septembers before. In fact, the S&P 500 has gained nice ground in each of the past two Septembers. But the tendency is to see lower prices in September.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. This is probably my biggest concern right now, along with the rotation into consumer staples. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down to 4.70% today, but it's close to key overhead yield resistance at 4.75%. Over the past four years, there's been a distinct inverse, or negative, correlation between the direction of the TNX and the direction of the S&P 500. And it's worked in both directions. I discussed this in our LiveStream event on Saturday. So which way is the TNX heading? If it spikes again and approaches 5% as we near the next Fed meeting, I don't believe stocks will handle it well. If inflation continues to be mostly benign and the TNX drops, that could provide the impetus for another stock rally into all-time high territory.

The Economy. We saw a negative jobs report for July and the August report will be out next week. I know the Fed has said it's focusing on ending the inflation threat and I'm taking Fed Chief Warsh at his word. That suggests to me that jobs could suffer in the short-term. We'll see.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term. I believe the longer-term picture remains quite bullish, so as a long-term investor, I'd stick with my long positions and ride out any near-term uncertainty. It's a bit different as a short-term trader, where preservation of capital is a much bigger priority.

Technical Conditions. The S&P 500 broke below its 20-day EMA on Thursday, but managed to climb back over it on Friday. Bouncing off a rising 20-day EMA is bullish. However, today, we've seen the S&P 500 move back below that 20-day EMA. We do have price support near the 7610 level, but that's only about 0.5% away from current price. The odds of a larger decline increase significantly if the S&P 500 fails to hold 7610 on a closing basis, in my opinion. Again, it does not change my long-term view, only the odds of a further short-term decline.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 10, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:04:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL) - no changes from last week, same 20 stocks
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists have been updated through Friday, August 14th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

The Key Manipulation spreadsheet was not updated last weekend, because of the massive number of earnings reports. It was updated this weekend, however, and will be updated on our website later this evening as well.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

We saw new all-time highs last week on the S&P 500, continuing the long-term secular bull market that's currently in play. Long-term investors should stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

This ratio was mostly flat last week, not really providing any significant clues as to future market direction. In addition to lowering our expectations for the overall market indices, we probably should lower our expectations for our sustainability ratios as well. It would be fairly unusual for these ratios to go screaming higher in August and September. Normally, the stock market is a bit more defensive in late summer as volumes decline with vacations.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps continue to perform well. I'd feel comfortable having them as part of my short-term or long-term trading/investing strategy right now. I still believe the interest rate environment over the next couple years will favor this asset class, even if we do have short-term interest rate "hiccups."

XLY:XLP

It was not a great week for this ratio. Wednesday was a particularly bad day as consumer discretionary stocks (XLY) were mostly moving down throughout the day, while consumer staples stocks (XLP) were moving higher. A couple more days like that and we could see a meaningful breakdown in this ratio - at least on an intraday basis (excluding gaps). While this is just one secondary signal, it is an important one to me. Consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of GDP, so a poorly performing discretionary group can be an indication of economic weakness ahead. Therefore, we want to always keep a close eye on the group technically and how it trades on a relative basis to staples.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Last week, this 5-day SMA bounced as it neared what I consider to be a key level of complacency near 0.55. It's currently in neutral territory and isn't really providing us much of a short-term signal.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

I'll be honest, I don't know what to think as I look at this chart. It looks very similar to 2019 into 2020 when the stock market couldn't decide which way it wanted to go. So I'm just watching it for now, not really trying to determine what signal it's sending. This 253-day SMA moves very, very slowly, so it'll take some patience. This is what I wrote last week and nothing has changed.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd:

JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: FN ($20 billion)
Tuesday: HD ($341 billion), KEYS ($60 billion), BIDU ($36 billion)
Wednesday: ADI ($186 billion), TJX ($170 billion), LOW ($122 billion), TGT ($71 billion)
Thursday: WMT ($921 billion), BABA ($293 billion), DE ($165 billion), ROST ($79 billion)
Friday: BEKE ($19 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: August empire state manufacturing survey, August NAHB housing market index
Tuesday: July housing starts & building permits, July industrial production & capacity utilization, July pending home sales
Wednesday: FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, July leading indicators
Friday: None

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Aug 17: +48.47% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+10.35% over 54 trading days since 1950. +10.35% x 253/54 = +48.47%)
Aug 18: -40.46%
Aug 19: -46.99%
Aug 20: +52.91%
Aug 21: -10.18%
Aug 22: +1.09%
Aug 23: +14.15%
Aug 24: +3.37%
Aug 25: -22.28%
Aug 26: -1.75%
Aug 27: -1.57%
Aug 28: -7.53%
Aug 29: +28.52%
Aug 30: -22.73%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Aug 17: +22.01%
Aug 18: -7.31%
Aug 19: -80.72%
Aug 20: +24.20%
Aug 21: -13.88%
Aug 22: +30.93%
Aug 23: +11.22%
Aug 24: +11.28%
Aug 25: +25.58%
Aug 26: +27.04%
Aug 27: +13.91%
Aug 28: -16.97%
Aug 29: +66.05%
Aug 30: -34.86%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Aug 17: -18.35%
Aug 18: +5.90%
Aug 19: -80.03%
Aug 20: +15.80%
Aug 21: +2.60%
Aug 22: +11.57%
Aug 23: -21.80%
Aug 24: +32.69%
Aug 25: +5.58%
Aug 26: +2.36%
Aug 27: +31.06%
Aug 28: +14.19%
Aug 29: +152.41%
Aug 30: -69.37%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It's great to see all-time highs continue to print, especially after two encouraging inflation reports last week. From a sector leadership perspective, however, there are only two sectors outperforming the S&P 500 - technology (XLK) and energy (XLE). I feel that energy's relative strength isn't as reliable, because it's dependent on the continuation of Middle East tensions, in my opinion. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm open to that possibility. However, the XLE does struggle during weeks where crude oil prices decline and that's been the long-term correlation as well.

Meanwhile, semiconductors (SOXX) are heating up again. I mentioned this in last Wednesday's Live Trading Room, indicating that the group was regaining strength technically. Over the past week, semiconductor stocks like SNDK (+46%), AEHR (+30%), COHU (+28%), MXL (+27%), AXTI (+27%), and FORM (+24%) have all gained north of 20%.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. I believe the biggest short-term threat to U.S. stocks remains the rise in the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX). It's been on the rise again since midday on Thursday, moving from 4.61% then to 4.71% at last check. Keep in mind that the TNX dropped last week on Wednesday and Thursday, after the July CPI and July PPI reports were mostly benign. Temporarily, that may have satisfied traders, but the movement higher again, I believe, recognizes that Fed Chief Warsh still may hike rates in September to MAKE SURE inflation isn't a problem.

The Economy. July jobs came in weak earlier this month and the discretionary sector remains particularly weak. That's concerning. I'm certainly not in panic mode, but it makes feel a bit more queasy about this rally when discretionary stocks are out of favor on a relative basis. On an absolute basis, the XLY is testing its August 4th low right now.

Seasonality. I keep reminding myself this is August. September has a propensity for driving the S&P 500 lower - unlike any other month. We've seen the S&P 500 drop 41 times in September since 1950, only rallying 34 times. That's a 45% chance over the past 75 years. The odds in September do NOT favor the bulls. Meanwhile, the odds of the S&P 500 rallying in ANY other month is just over 62%. I am open to the possibility that higher interest rates could spook the market temporarily, causing some short-term pain. The odds are not strong enough to sell as a long-term investor, but short-term traders need to remain on their toes.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 10, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 10:48:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists have been updated through Friday, August 7th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Last week was an extremely heavy week for earnings reports. The SECL is completely updated. However, the RGCL was only updated through Monday's guidance. I'll continue updating this ChartList throughout the week, so it would be advisable to download it repeatedly throughout this week to get the latest list. By this weekend, all ChartLists should be fully updated.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week was a big week from a trading perspective, as many of our major indices moved back into all-time high territory. It's always great to see fresh all-time highs in a lengthy secular bull market. But it's hard to even notice anything on the long-term, BIG PICTURE, 100-year chart. It was another ho-hum week within a very long-term uptrend.

That's the beauty of this chart for long-term investors - its simplicity. Could we be in for a rough period to end the summer, like so many late-summer swoons in the past? That's a question for short-term traders. Looking through a long-term lens, it just doesn't matter.

The trend is our friend and the trend clearly remains UP.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Do I look at this chart and think "perfection"? No, not even close. But there was one thing that I loved about last week. When the S&P 500 rallied to close at an all-time high again, market participants were in "risk on" mode, meaning that money was rotating to more aggressive areas of the market. In my experience, there aren't many signs out there that are much more corroborating than seeing ratios, like our sustainability ratios, rising strongly to support an all-time high breakout.

Should the S&P 500 continue rising and our sustainability ratios, like the QQQ:SPY, roll over and near recent lows, that would be a totally different story. For now, though, I fully embrace the bullish signal associated with this rising ratio.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps also broke out to an all-time high, but this asset class did take a back seat to the NASDAQ 100, which is where much of the money rotated. Still, the IWM is a higher risk investment in its own right, so breaking out to confirm the "risk on" mentality is a positive, in my view.

XLY:XLP

Last week, I indicated that I wanted to see this ratio, in particular, rally to support an S&P 500 breakout. Well, you can see in the above chart that money rotated rather strongly back into the XLY to coincide with the S&P 500's push back to its all-time high. This is very bullish behavior that makes it very difficult to bet against U.S. stocks.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

"The 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) remains a big positive for U.S. stocks. There's a healthy level of skepticism, as evidenced by the recent spike in this 5-day ratio. Since this is a contrarian indicator, this increasing level of skepticism is actually bullish for stocks."

This is what I wrote last week. I wanted to repeat it here, because it's very easy to see how sentiment plays such a significant role in stock market performance. The S&P 500 consolidated and went through periods of weakness while the 5-day SMA of the CPCE was at low levels, reflecting complacency or optimism. Look at where the S&P 500 was when this 5-day SMA was at its lowest level of the past couple years at the beginning of June. At that point, the S&P 500 topped when options traders were at their most bullish, buying calls hand over fist. But after wallowing around for two months, nervousness and skepticism took over, sending this 5-day SMA back up towards 0.70 and multi-month highs. And THEN the S&P 500 broke out. This is why sentiment indicators are viewed as contrarian indicators. We want to think about doing OPPOSITE of the masses, especially when it comes to options traders.

You've probably heard me talk about options-expiration week as Opposite George week, a Seinfeld reference. In this comedy, Jason Alexander plays the character, George Costanza, where he's always negative and down on his life. Jerry Seinfeld points out to George that if every decision he makes in life is the wrong decision, then maybe he should just do the opposite. Well, as you might have already guessed, when George takes on this approach, his world suddenly becomes much brighter and more positive.

This is just an analogy that highlights the importance of sentiment and trying to avoid the mistake of following the masses, especially when we reach higher levels of pessimism.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd:

JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: SPG ($72 billion), RKLB ($44 billion)
Tuesday: SE ($68 billion), LITE ($65 billion), CAH ($56 billion), CRWV ($38 billion)
Wednesday: CSCO ($476 billion), COHR ($65 billion), NBIS ($48 billion)
Thursday: AMAT ($419 billion), BN ($108 billion), TPR ($33 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: July existing home sales
Wednesday: July CPI
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, July PPI
Friday: July retail sales, June business inventories, August consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Aug 10: -34.27% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-7.31% over 54 trading days since 1950. -7.31% x 253/54 = -34.27%)
Aug 11: +41.84%
Aug 12: +4.91%
Aug 13: +9.96%
Aug 14: +1.34%
Aug 15: +7.60%
Aug 16: +20.23%
Aug 17: +48.47%
Aug 18: -40.46%
Aug 19: -46.99%
Aug 20: +52.91%
Aug 21: -10.18%
Aug 22: +1.09%
Aug 23: +14.15%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Aug 10: -55.12%
Aug 11: +26.38%
Aug 12: +48.71%
Aug 13: +29.29%
Aug 14: +34.42%
Aug 15: -2.66%
Aug 16: +33.28%
Aug 17: +22.01%
Aug 18: -7.31%
Aug 19: -80.72%
Aug 20: +24.20%
Aug 21: -13.88%
Aug 22: +30.93%
Aug 23: +11.22%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Aug 10: -58.63%
Aug 11: +26.27%
Aug 12: +15.57%
Aug 13: -32.17%
Aug 14: +23.16%
Aug 15: +14.83%
Aug 16: +54.99%
Aug 17: -18.35%
Aug 18: +5.90%
Aug 19: -80.03%
Aug 20: +15.80%
Aug 21: +2.60%
Aug 22: +11.57%
Aug 23: -21.80%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

One positive signal from last week that suggests this breakout is for real is the new low set on the Volatility Index ($VIX). If the S&P 500 sets a series of new highs with a series of higher corresponding lows on the VIX, that's typically a signal that we're not likely to sustain the move higher. But that wasn't the case last week. The Volatility Index ($VIX) on Friday closed at its lowest level (14.90) since the January 9th low of 14.49. That's bullish confirmation.

A potential problem could be brewing with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) creeping back up before two key inflation reports this week - the July CPI and the July PPI. Personally, I believe the market is already prepping itself for what could be a rate hike in September. The odds of a hike were above 50%, until Friday's jobs report showed a slightly negative number. Still, current Fed Chief Warsh has made it clear that defeating inflation is his Fed's #1 goal. So, the inflation reports carry a bit more weight, in my view. Those two inflation reports will be out on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, in pre-market action.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The TNX is moving higher again, with two critical yield resistance levels at 4.75% and 5.00%. I believe the 5.00% level is more important, simply due to the psychological impact. We haven't seen a 5%+ TNX in nearly two decades, dating all the way back to July 2007. Higher interest rates can also stall, or even reverse, economic growth. As long as we're only looking at maybe one or two hikes, before further rate cuts are expected, I'm not overly concerned. But if inflation does, in fact, begin to heat up, that could be a problem, so it's worth discussing and monitoring.

Inflation. Is inflation really a problem? The long-term chart of the Core CPI would suggest NO, as it's been steadily declining since peaking in 2022. But plenty of market pundits keep talking it up and 3 Fed governors voted for a rate hike last month, because they believe inflationary conditions remain. It's not really about what I think, but rather what the stock market collectively believes. I'll continue to watch for inflationary signs that could begin to impact the stock market in a negative way. I just don't see any at this juncture. Wednesday and Thursday will provide us a better idea.

Earnings. Well, we've made our way through most of the Q2 earnings season. There will be large, influential companies reporting periodically over the next couple weeks, but nearly all of the major companies have now reported. One exception is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), which will report results on Wednesday, August 26th. Overall, earnings have been quite strong once again, underpinning the latest market rally and all-time highs.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, August 3, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:37:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 31st. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

The EB Monthly Seasonality Report - August 2026 was sent out earlier today and I should have the August Seasonality ChartList completed by this evening.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The S&P 500 is up over 1% today (at last check), which takes this benchmark index to within a stone's throw of another all-time high. Clearly, the leadership is no longer coming from semiconductors ($DJUSSC), as it was for many months, but other key areas of the market have picked up, including many of the Mag 7 stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon.com (AMZN), in particular, lifted stocks after reporting quarterly results late last week.

The good news is that on our long-term weekly chart, nothing has changed. Everything we've been through since the early-June high has been noise - from a longer-term perspective. Will we make another all-time high breakout? Yes, but will it be this week, next week, next month, or next quarter? In the long-term, does it really matter?

Stay long and strong.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

This ratio remains under pressure, which, in my opinion, would favor more market consolidation ahead. There will be a ton of earnings out this week and next, especially among the influential semiconductor group. I expect most of these earnings to be very strong, so let's see how Wall Street reacts and where the money goes. There is no doubt, however, that this ratio needs to improve to fully support another secular bull market advance.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps are also back on the move today, attempting to clear its 1-month downtrend line. I see this asset class as very healthy and its relative performance chart above would corroborate this.

XLY:XLP

Early last week, this ratio hit its lowest level in over a year, which is never a great signal. Fortunately, relative strength in the XLY began just before AMZN reported its quarterly results, and since then, this ratio has exploded back to the upside. We need to see more relative strength in the XLY to support an all-time high breakout in the S&P 500, should it occur.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

The 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) remains a big positive for U.S. stocks. There's a healthy level of skepticism, as evidenced by the recent spike in this 5-day ratio. Since this is a contrarian indicator, this increasing level of skepticism is actually bullish for stocks.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

The last 9 months or so has been confusing, at least based on this signal. We've seen this longer-term ratio turn higher, then lower, now higher again. But which way will be sustained? That's the question I'm asking right now and, until that question is answered, I'd consider this signal to be neutral.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd:

JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: PLTR ($293 billion), VRTX ($122 billion), MAR ($99 billion)
Tuesday: SPCX ($1.47 trillion), AMD ($791 billion), CAT ($372 billion), MRK ($321 billion), ANET ($215 billion)
Wednesday: LLY ($1.09 trillion), SNDK ($190 billion), WDC ($184 billion), DIS ($167 billion), SHOP ($159 billion)
Thursday: COP ($145 billion), PBR ($123 billion), PH ($121 billion), NET ($100 billion), DDOG ($196 billion)
Friday: VST ($50 billion), TTWO ($46 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: July ISM manufacturing, June construction spending
Tuesday: June factory orders, June JOLTS
Wednesday: July ADP employment, July PMI services, July ISM services
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 productivity, June wholesale inventories
Friday: July nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & hourly wages

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Aug 3: +21.48% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+4.50% over 53 trading days since 1950. +4.50% x 253/53 = +21.48%)
Aug 4: -55.24%
Aug 5: -47.27%
Aug 6: +11.65%
Aug 7: +57.34%
Aug 8: -3.41%
Aug 9: -10.48%
Aug 10: -34.27%
Aug 11: +41.84%
Aug 12: +4.91%
Aug 13: +9.96%
Aug 14: +1.34%
Aug 15: +7.60%
Aug 16: +20.23%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Aug 3: +32.33%
Aug 4: -71.72%
Aug 5: -88.71%
Aug 6: +41.00%
Aug 7: +68.35%
Aug 8: -12.50%
Aug 9: +2.58%
Aug 10: -55.12%
Aug 11: +26.38%
Aug 12: +48.71%
Aug 13: +29.29%
Aug 14: +34.42%
Aug 15: -2.66%
Aug 16: +33.28%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Aug 3: -31.43%
Aug 4: -104.87%
Aug 5: -94.59%
Aug 6: +1.35%
Aug 7: +60.00%
Aug 8: +6.28%
Aug 9: +12.38%
Aug 10: -58.63%
Aug 11: +26.27%
Aug 12: +15.57%
Aug 13: -32.17%
Aug 14: +23.16%
Aug 15: +14.83%
Aug 16: +54.99%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It was very interesting that the Volatility Index - CBOE NASDAQ 100 ($VXN) was FALLING, even though the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) was falling. That's unusual behavior, as you can see below:

Whenever I see this with the S&P 500 (going down) and the VIX (going down also), it's a signal that fear is falling, despite the stock market's weakness. Many times, the market weakness doesn't last and prices reverse to the upside. That's what we're seeing with the NASDAQ 100 now.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The Fed met last week and 3 Fed officials voted for a hike. Clearly, the overall committee is turning more hawkish and Fed Chief Warsh has been quite adamant that inflation will NOT be a problem. Personally, I believe the stock market is beginning to expect a rate hike to establish, if nothing else, that this Fed is serious about ending inflationary threats. In the end, that's a great outcome for U.S. equities, which is perhaps why we're seeing less fear (based on the VIX), despite market weakness.

Jobs. We'll get the latest jobs numbers this week, first in the form of the July ADP employment report on Wednesday, then the July nonfarm payrolls on Friday. If jobs remain relatively resilient, I think U.S. stocks will be able to maintain "status quo", even if the fed funds rate is hiked a quarter point at the September meeting.

Semiconductors. The SOXX moved up last week to challenge the declining 20-day EMA, but failed. To the downside, last Wednesday's close set a key price support level. If that level breaks down, it could trigger further de-leveraging in this space. Therefore, I'll watch this level very closely. If that level holds and the SOXX can reclaim its 20-day EMA, the worst could be behind the group. That obviously would be best for our key major indices. Nearly every semiconductor intraday low over the past few weeks has occurred at the open or during the early morning trading hours. That's a sign of a de-leveraging and manipulative market. I'm hopeful that's behind us.

Earnings. There are over 1000 companies reporting this week, many of which reside in the very influential technology sector (XLK). I expect earnings to be strong, but what I'm not so sure about is whether we'll get positive reactions from Wall Street. Many semiconductor, data center, and AI-related stocks were priced for perfection. Will they live up to those lofty expectations? It's hard to say. One stock that I've bought in anticipation of a possible earnings-related run up is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA). It's been an underperformer among semis, but it has a long history of performing exceptionally well during its earnings months - February, May, August, and November. It's off to a great start on its first trading day in August. Earnings will be out on 8/26 AMC (after market close).

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 24, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 11:20:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 24th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I continue to receive a number of emails, asking if this is the start of a significant correction, or even a cyclical bear market. First of all, let me say that if you're a long-term investor, I'd stick with the above chart and ignore all of the short-term noise. The ONLY time I'd consider getting out of the market is if I see MANY warning signs simultaneously, while the S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high. After the market goes through a decline, similar to what the NASDAQ has already done, I believe it's a MAJOR risk to exit the market - again, from a long-term perspective. The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is down 9%+ since its high in early June, mostly due to the weakening semiconductors ($DJUSSC).

Lowering the bar of expectations during the summer months makes a ton of sense, because that's been the weakest time of the calendar year for U.S. stocks since 1950. I've mentioned this several times recently, but July 17th through September 26th presents historical headwinds. After the major advance that we saw off of the late-March low, a period of selling and consolidation is healthy for the market. I actually welcome it. Short-term, the selling could accelerate, especially given the fact that the NDX closed at its lowest level in nearly 3 months on Friday. I thought we might see a gap lower. Instead, we saw brief strength at the opening bell and substantial selling since. For me, this is all short-term noise. But I understand it's still painful for now.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The downtrend in this ratio is accelerating, which is problematic near-term. It's an indication that market participants are avoiding risk for the moment, while we search for a short-term bottom.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps remain a solid alternate to the risky, high-growth stocks found in the NASDAQ 100. It's those latter stocks that tend to drive the market higher over time, but during the summer months, especially August and September, parking some additional money in other areas and diversifying makes a bit more sense.

XLY:XLP

This is my favorite relative ratio and it's not very bullish right now. I wouldn't say it's overly bearish, but there's no doubt that we need to continue watching it. If we see the S&P 500 break down, with the XLY:XLP ratio downtrending, that would be a bad combination - at least in the near-term. Personally, I'm still not looking for any type of major selloff in our major indices, so I'd need to see a significant price breakdown to grow more cautious.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

The 5-day SMA of the CPCE has been on the rise and definitely provides some hope to the bulls. We know that 5-day readings above 0.70, and especially 0.75, tend to provide the bulls a lot of ammunition to take prices higher.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

I've circled the indecision in this 253-day CPCE reading from 2019, because we seem to be shaping up the same way in 2026. A definitive break to a new low would be bullish and suggest further all-time highs ahead in our major indices. A more significant rise, however, would indicate the potential for storm clouds ahead. (No changes from the past two weeks)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of the end of June (I'll provide my next update next week):

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA
TSCO - adding below.

We are adding Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) as another stock that we like from a long-term, dividend-paying perspective. Its monthly RSI has approached 30 for only the third time in its history. It's lost half its value in just the last year and its dividend has been growing and appears quite safe to me. Here's the long-term monthly chart:

Because of the recent price weakness, TSCO now sports a solid 3% dividend yield. That, combined with an annual dividend growth rate of roughly 20% over the past 15 years, suggests that TSCO is an excellent addition to any growth & income or even just income portfolio for the future.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: AZN ($261 billion), CDNS ($91 billion), NUE ($55 billion), CLS ($38 billion)
Tuesday: V ($631 billion), KO ($349 billion), KLAC ($286 billion), STX ($205 billion), BA ($165 billion)
Wednesday: MSFT ($2.83 trillion), META ($1.53 trillion), LRCX ($400 billion), ARM ($302 billion), APH ($194 billion)
Thursday: AAPL ($4.72 trillion), AMZN ($2.51 trillion), MA ($469 billion), BMY ($126 billion), SYK ($122 billion)
Friday: XOM ($650 billion), ABBV ($454 billion), CVX ($387 billion), ETN ($161 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: June durable goods
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, May Case-Shiller home price index, July consumer confidence
Wednesday: FOMC policy decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP (Initial reading), June personal income & spending, June PCE index
Friday: July Chicago PMI, July consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 27: +9.03% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+1.89% over 53 trading days since 1950. +1.89% x 253/53 = +9.03%)
Jul 28: -21.24%
Jul 29: +35.55%
Jul 30: +59.54%
Jul 31: +19.78%
Aug 1: -24.59%
Aug 2: +10.21%
Aug 3: +21.48%
Aug 4: -55.24%
Aug 5: -47.27%
Aug 6: +11.65%
Aug 7: +57.34%
Aug 8: -3.41%
Aug 9: -10.48%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 27: -16.15%
Jul 28: -50.31%
Jul 29: +17.57%
Jul 30: +30.33%
Jul 31: +12.25%
Aug 1: -65.00%
Aug 2: -2.93%
Aug 3: +32.33%
Aug 4: -71.72%
Aug 5: -88.71%
Aug 6: +41.00%
Aug 7: +68.35%
Aug 8: -12.50%
Aug 9: +2.58%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 27: -61.56%
Jul 28: +10.09%
Jul 29: +96.80%
Jul 30: +59.48%
Jul 31: -23.30%
Aug 1: -78.14%
Aug 2: -88.19%
Aug 3: -31.43%
Aug 4: -104.87%
Aug 5: -94.59%
Aug 6: +1.35%
Aug 7: +60.00%
Aug 8: +6.28%
Aug 9: +12.38%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

There is one very interesting part of the selling that has taken place in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX). While the NDX has been selling off rather harshly, it's been accompanied by a lower Volatility Index - CBOE NASDAQ 100 ($VXN). That's unusual. Check out this chart:

Previously, when the NDX has been rising AND the VXN has been rising with it, we've subsequently seen a fairly significant selloff. But now the NDX is selling off and breaking down with the VXN much lower than it was. Interesting. Does that mean this selloff likely won't last and we'll soon see a large rebound? That's what this story tells me, but, quite honestly, there are a lot of conflicting signals in the market right now.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The Fed meets this week and some believe we could see a 0.25 basis point hike. I'm not in that camp, but I will say that Fed Chief Warsh has been adamant that inflation will be crushed by Fed policy. If he truly wants to make a statement, a hike on Wednesday would be it. I actually think the stock market might react quite positively to it, believe it or not. The previous Fed, in my humble opinion, was incredibly "wishy-washy". I'm not sure what they stood for. If the current Fed's goal is to demonstrate to everyone that they're serious about ensuring low inflation ahead, then a hike is possible. We'll see.

Earnings. Earnings season is about to get really interesting. The market did not like Alphabet's (GOOGL) quarterly results last week, despite the better-than-expected revenues and EPS. It certainly didn't like Tesla's (TSLA) earnings miss. So what will happen later this week when Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) hit the stage? I believe AAPL will report excellent results. The rest? Hhhmmmm, not so sure. Expectations have diminished considerably for both MSFT and META, so perhaps that will help them. AMZN is a big question mark, in my view.

Semiconductors. More and more companies within this influential group will be reporting results over the next 1 to 3 weeks. I believe results will be very strong again, but the way the group is trading, it's an indication that they were already priced for excellent results. Picking the right semiconductor stocks will likely be very important during the balance of 2026. Previously, you could buy just about any semiconductor stock and make money. I believe that's changed, so stock selection in the group will be critical. Continue to look for those stocks showing leadership relative to the rest of the group.

Technical Conditions. We can talk about a lot of warning signs and whether they signal a potential top in the market. But the key is ALWAYS price action. If price action doesn't confirm those warning signs, then the warning signs don't matter. On the S&P 500, I see two MAJOR price support levels, the first at the recent price low and rising 20-week EMA. They're currently at 7266.99 and 7285.06, respectively. The second major price support level is at 7000. It's a psychological number and it's also the level where the S&P 500 made a big breakout in April.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 20, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:25:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 17th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

One common ingredient of EVERY secular bear market is a monthly PPO that turns negative, or drops below the monthly PPO centerline. There MUST be sustained weakness over an extended period of time in order for this to occur. The problem is that many market pundits want to call a secular bear market every time we have a normal period of profit taking and consolidation. There have only been 2 secular bear markets in my lifetime and I'd say that most folks will never witness 4 secular bear markets in their lifetime. Stop trying to call them. It's a waste of time and energy and the opportunity costs are tremendous.

We're in a secular BULL market. Enjoy it.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The recent QQQ:SPY relative downtrend remains in play as money rotates into more value-oriented stocks during this consolidation phase. This will likely continue so long as semiconductor stocks struggle, because of their huge impact.

IWM:QQQ

There was a clear bounce last week in small caps on a relative basis. While that was good to see, I doubt that it continues unabated. There are still concerns as to what the Fed's next move will be. That uncertainty will likely keep a lid on the IWM's relative outperformance. At least, that's what I'm expecting at this point. Regional banks (KRE) are the most influential area of small caps and a negative divergence printed on KRE's latest daily high. If that slowing momentum plays out and the KRE consolidates, or sells off briefly, it will make IWM outperformance less likely - for now.

XLY:XLP

This relative ratio remains a challenge for the bulls as well. I find it slightly encouraging that the INTRADAY XLY:XLP ratio (Ignores Gaps) in the top panel remains close to a 6-month high. Ultimately, a break out above this red relative resistance line would argue for higher S&P 500 prices.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

The 5-day SMA of the CPCE has moved above 0.70. Historically, any readings at .75 or higher tend to mark significant bottoms in the secular bull market, so this is an indication to me that we are probably closing in on a short-term bottom.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of the end of June:

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: NVS ($291 billion), SCHW ($179 billion), IBKR ($156 billion), DHR ($145 billion), COF ($132 billion)
Wednesday: GOOGL ($4.29 trillion), TSLA ($1.47 trillion), GEV ($278 billion), TXN ($265 billion), IBM ($206 billion)
Thursday: INTC ($487 billion), RTX ($262 billion), TMUS ($209 billion), TMO ($202 billion), SAP ($199 billion)
Friday: AXP ($247 billion), NEE ($186 billion), VZ ($183 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: June leading economic indicators
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June retail sales, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, June pending home sales, May business inventories
Friday: July PMI manufacturing, July PMI services, June new home sales

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 20: -3.71% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-0.79% over 53 trading days since 1950. -0.79% x 253/53 = -3.71%)
Jul 21: -27.81%
Jul 22: -9.16%
Jul 23: -25.38%
Jul 24: -4.25%
Jul 25: +19.06%
Jul 26: +30.43%
Jul 27: +9.03%
Jul 28: -21.24%
Jul 29: +35.55%
Jul 30: +59.54%
Jul 31: +19.78%
Aug 1: -24.59%
Aug 2: +10.21%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 20: +22.38%
Jul 21: -54.01%
Jul 22: -2.53%
Jul 23: -86.23%
Jul 24: -47.40%
Jul 25: +32.54%
Jul 26: +18.91%
Jul 27: -16.15%
Jul 28: -50.31%
Jul 29: +17.57%
Jul 30: +30.33%
Jul 31: +12.25%
Aug 1: -65.00%
Aug 2: -2.93%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 20: +25.11%
Jul 21: -95.09%
Jul 22: +42.13%
Jul 23: -71.17%
Jul 24: -91.83%
Jul 25: +46.35%
Jul 26: +56.13%
Jul 27: -61.56%
Jul 28: +10.09%
Jul 29: +96.80%
Jul 30: +59.48%
Jul 31: -23.30%
Aug 1: -78.14%
Aug 2: -88.19%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Clearly, the market's appetite for risk has diminished in recent weeks. It's evident when we look at the riskiest area of the market - semiconductors - and the plunge they've taken. The long-term trend in the group most definitely remains higher, so I'd be careful growing too pessimistic. I understand the short-term downtrend that's taken place, but as long as price action remains above its rising 20-week EMA, I'd give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

This past week was also July monthly options-expiration week. That can create a bearish environment for U.S. stocks, especially those that previously had been up trending. It'll be more telling to watch to see how we end the month as huge earnings reports are released.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Earnings. We haven't really seen the pre-earnings run up that we typically see during the first half of July. That could be a function of the massive push higher earlier in Q2. It's hard to tack on gains after we see more than a 10% move higher in one month. Consolidation is normal.

Seasonality. We're in a rough week historically. The July 17th close through the July 24th close has been the 3rd worst week of the year, dating back to 1950, trailing only one-week periods in September and October. This certainly doesn't guarantee us lower prices this week, but I'm always aware of historical tendencies.

Technical Conditions. This is a very light week in terms of economic reports. And while earnings reports will be accelerating, the really big companies will mostly start reporting next week. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) are two exceptions as they will both report their latest quarterly results on Wednesday, after the closing bell.

Interest Rates. This is one of our best clues as to what Wall Street is thinking about inflation. If inflation expectations rise, so too should the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX). Currently, I view the TNX to be in a range from 4.25-4.35% to the downside and 4.70-4.80% to the upside. I'd grow much more concerned if the TNX were to pierce 4.80% and begin to challenge major yield resistance at 5.00%, set in October 2023.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 13, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 05:19:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 10th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The long-term secular bull market remains intact. One thing I'm watching is the monthly PPO, which is currently beneath 9. At many recent tops, where the S&P 500 has consolidated for extended periods, or sold off, the monthly PPO was well above 10. So based on this signal alone, it would seem as though there's still plenty of room on the PPO before we become overly extended.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The longer-term ratio remains in an uptrend, in my view, but I will continue to watch the more recent downtrend that has started.

IWM:QQQ

This ratio tends to struggle a bit when the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) rises and, unfortunately, the TNX has been rising now for the past couple weeks, moving from 4.37% to 4.57%. I don't believe this trend higher extends for very long, but the Fed still must weigh its options regarding policy and its interpretation of inflationary concerns. While I expect the IWM to perform well, I doubt that it will significantly outperform the S&P 500 or NASDAQ 100, unless it becomes clearer that the Fed's next step will be a rate cut.

XLY:XLP

The red ratio resistance lines on both chart panels above are key relative levels to watch. Should the XLY:XLP ratios break above these levels, while simultaneously seeing a breakout in the S&P 500, I'd view that development bullishly. If we don't see a breakout in these relative ratios with an S&P 500 breakout, it'd be more of a cautious signal - not necessarily bearish.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Short-term, options traders have grown a bit more cautious with the 5-day SMA of the CPCE rising up near 0.70. Historically, any readings at .75 or higher tend to mark significant bottoms in the secular bull market.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of the end of June:

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: JPM ($899 billion), BAC ($420 billion), GS ($312 billion), WFC ($266 billion), C ($238 billion)
Wednesday: ASML ($710 billion), JNJ ($624 billion), MS ($350 billion), BLK ($158 billion), PNC ($101 billion)
Thursday: TSM ($2.27 trillion), UNH ($392 billion), GE ($375 billion), NFLX ($318 billion), ABT ($164 billion)
Friday: TRV ($72 billion), TFC ($64 billion), FITB ($51 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: June CPI
Wednesday: June PPI, July empire state manufacturing survey, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June retail sales, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, June pending home sales, May business inventories
Friday: June housing starts & building permits, June industrial production & capacity utilization, July consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 13: -5.67% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-1.21% over 54 trading days since 1950. -1.21% x 253/54 = -5.67%)
Jul 14: +60.27%
Jul 15: +15.66%
Jul 16: +10.16%
Jul 17: +17.09%
Jul 18: -30.14%
Jul 19: +2.72%
Jul 20: -3.71%
Jul 21: -27.81%
Jul 22: -9.16%
Jul 23: -25.38%
Jul 24: -4.25%
Jul 25: +19.06%
Jul 26: +30.43%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 13: +61.52%
Jul 14: +72.33%
Jul 15: +47.81%
Jul 16: -15.09%
Jul 17: +53.00%
Jul 18: -54.75%
Jul 19: -13.47%
Jul 20: +22.38%
Jul 21: -54.01%
Jul 22: -2.53%
Jul 23: -86.23%
Jul 24: -47.40%
Jul 25: +32.54%
Jul 26: +18.91%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 13: +63.13%
Jul 14: -1.02%
Jul 15: +88.41%
Jul 16: -53.53%
Jul 17: +6.57%
Jul 18: -49.23%
Jul 19: +20.86%
Jul 20: +25.11%
Jul 21: -95.09%
Jul 22: +42.13%
Jul 23: -71.17%
Jul 24: -91.83%
Jul 25: +46.35%
Jul 26: +56.13%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Well, it's earnings season once again. It's hard to believe that the big banks are set to kick things off, but that's exactly what's going to happen on Tuesday morning. Earnings are expected to be strong and banks ($DJUSBK), in particular, have been trading bullishly as we approach their quarterly results. That's the good news. During this secular bull market advance, banks have tended to outperform the S&P 500 during July as earnings are reported. It's worth mentioning, however, that the DJUSBK performs its worst, at least historically, during the month of August and once July earnings reports dry up. The group also shows a negative divergence on its daily chart, so if that's not eliminated with a solid surge after earnings reports are released, that could add to the August selling pressure.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Pre-Earnings Run Up? I mentioned this last week. We normally see prices rise the 2-3 weeks heading into earnings season. That's been the historical norm for more than seven decades. We did finally see the S&P 500 begin to rally last week and it's now roughly 0.5% away from a new all-time high.

Seasonality. While July tends to be a bullish month for U.S. equities, the period from the July 17th close through the July 24th close is one of the worst weeks of the year historically. That doesn't mean we see crashes, just that the tendencies tend to favor the bears a bit more throughout that week.

Inflation. The June CPI and PPI reports will be released on Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, respectively. Consensus estimates point to be a big drop in the Core CPI and Core PPI from the May readings. If that holds true, or we see an even bigger drop than expected, interest-rate-sensitive areas like banks, homebuilders, and small caps could see a solid bump to the upside, while the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) falters. We have to also be alert for the opposite reaction if the number is hotter than expected, especially the Core CPI number.

Technical Conditions. Negative divergences on daily charts have mostly played out, meaning that price action is now free to move in either direction, as momentum issues have been resolved. The weekly charts remain extremely bullish in my view, with 20-week EMAs rising and potentially offering solid support on any further short-term weakness.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 6, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 07:27:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
July Seasonality (SEASCL)

Matt's Hot Stocks, July Seasonality, and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Thursday, July 2nd. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

)

Big Picture

Despite the short-term anxieties, the S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market advance, as is reflected in the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

There's no doubt that questions remain and that this ratio has been fairly volatile. Still, the overall trend remains higher and supports the current secular bull market.

IWM:QQQ

I was a little surprised by the bond market's reaction to the June ADP employment report, released on Wednesday, and the June nonfarm payrolls report, released on Thursday morning. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) jumped higher on both days, though I believe the gap higher will be short lived. With yields moving up, the IWM:QQQ ratio struggled a bit. I don't see a long-term issue, but I do recognize there's some additional "data gathering" required as we move into Q2 earnings season.

XLY:XLP

There was strength in this ratio last week, which is at least encouraging. The ratio has moved mostly lower in 2026, especially since mid April, and that gives me some reason to question the strength. In the end, however, I simply don't see enough corroborating information to support a topping process. I remain "cautiously optimistic" and believe we'll see further all-time highs in Q3 and Q4.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

This is a sentiment signal that I value considerably. We've moved back into neutral territory, even starting to approach overly pessimistic territory (0.75 or above) - great news for the bulls. We're definitely not extended, however, so there could be more short-term downside. We can't rule that out.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Are we starting to turn back higher? This looks very much like 2019, when this long-term sentiment indicator flashed conflicting signals. If the message isn't clear, then IGNORE it. That's my philosophy.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of late June:

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: PEP ($197 billion)
Friday: DAL ($61 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: May wholesale inventories, FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June existing home sales
Friday: None

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 6: +22.32% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+4.68% over 53 trading days since 1950. +4.68% x 253/53 = +22.32%)
Jul 7: +13.61%
Jul 8: -16.33%
Jul 9: +77.99%
Jul 10: -14.99%
Jul 11: +11.48%
Jul 12: +36.89%
Jul 13: -5.67%
Jul 14: +60.27%
Jul 15: +15.66%
Jul 16: +10.16%
Jul 17: +17.09%
Jul 18: -30.14%
Jul 19: +2.72%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 6: -10.79%
Jul 7: +52.71%
Jul 8: -9.65%
Jul 9: +90.35%
Jul 10: -26.62%
Jul 11: +9.52%
Jul 12: +128.28%
Jul 13: +61.52%
Jul 14: +72.33%
Jul 15: +47.81%
Jul 16: -15.09%
Jul 17: +53.00%
Jul 18: -54.75%
Jul 19: -13.47%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 6: -76.61%
Jul 7: +42.32%
Jul 8: +35.86%
Jul 9: +30.65%
Jul 10: -16.74%
Jul 11: +28.65%
Jul 12: +89.15%
Jul 13: +63.13%
Jul 14: -1.02%
Jul 15: +88.41%
Jul 16: -53.53%
Jul 17: +6.57%
Jul 18: -49.23%
Jul 19: +20.86%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The back and forth action in June was to be somewhat expected. The third month of every calendar quarter tends to be more value-driven and we tend to see profit taking in aggressive growth areas. Still, it's hard not to be disappointed by the weakness in those growth areas as we opened a brand new calendar month. Historically, two of the best three days of the calendar month are the 1st and 2nd. Unfortunately, July 1st and 2nd were anything but bullish days, especially in aggressive areas like semiconductors, where selling accelerated into the holiday weekend.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Pre-Earnings Run Up? We normally see prices rise the 2-3 weeks heading into earnings season. That's been the historical norm for more than seven decades. If last week was any indication, though, we could be in for a lot more disappointment.

Interest Rates. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) moved higher last week, particularly after both jobs reports on Wednesday and Thursday came in lighter than expected. That normally would have the opposite effect. I don't really pay attention to what I believe should happen. Rather, I pay attention to what IS happening. If the TNX continues to climb next week, many of the interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market that have risen considerably in recent weeks, could be in trouble.

Divergences. While many negative divergences still remain on daily charts, the weekly charts are very strong and PPOs are showing little in the way of slowing momentum. I put more weight on the look of the weekly charts, so I'm expecting stock prices to rise, as they typically do, ahead of the start of Q2 earnings season.

Cryptocurrencies. I discussed last week the positive divergence on the bitcoin chart ($BTCUSD). We promptly saw bitcoin jump 5% or so in a week and I believe it could just be the beginning. Keep a close eye on the recent low just beneath 58000. If that holds, a major move could be right around the corner.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 29, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 10:51:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, June 26th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The secular bull market uptrend remains perfectly intact and doesn't get swayed by all of the short-term news stories and hype. It's always comforting to look at this Big Picture chart to start every week.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

We saw more consolidation in this ratio, but after the straight-up move we saw in the relative performance of the QQQ, that's not anything to worry about at this point.

IWM:QQQ

As the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) has fallen, the relative strength of small caps (IWM) has risen. It's something I've talked about the past few years. If I'm right that the Fed cuts before they hike, I assume we'll see more relative strength in the IWM. Hopefully, with the new Fed chair, we'll see less frequent rotation and reduced volatility, when it comes to the small cap area.

XLY:XLP

This ratio has weakened and is testing lows set in May and earlier in June. There's also a triple bottom in February and March just below the more recent relative lows. While one ratio breaking down is reason to at least consider a potential topping process, I want to see a number of warning signs. Panicking every time one piece of the jigsaw puzzle turns cautious or bearish will have us overreacting way too often. Just keep in mind that we need to see a series of bearish signals arising simultaneously to truly grow worried about an impending cyclical bear market approaching.

For what it's worth, and it's only two days, but the XLY has a very nice recovery on Friday and we're seeing follow through today. AMZN and TSLA are both strong intraday.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

We saw a bit of a pullback in our major indices and this short-term signal has quickly moved back into neutral territory. This sentiment signal is telling us absolutely nothing at the moment.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

The fact that this long-term 253-day SMA has rolled back over and is now moving lower is bullish. If it breaks to a new low, clearing the Q4 2025 low, it would only add more confidence to the secular bull market scenario moving forward. (This was written last week and nothing has changed, in my view.)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I currently view each weekly chart heading into July:

JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: NKE ($61 billion), STZ ($25 billion)
Wednesday: GIS ($19 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None - Market Closed

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: April Case-Shiller home price index, June Chicago PMI, June consumer confidence, May JOLTS
Wednesday: June ADP employment report, June ISM manufacturing, May construction spending
Thursday: June nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, & hourly wages, initial jobless claims
Friday: None - Market Closed

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 29: +6.42% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+1.35% over 53 trading days since 1950. +1.35% x 253/53 = +6.42%)
Jun 30: +36.16%
Jul 1: +70.86%
Jul 2: +18.71%
Jul 3: +80.16%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: +39.40%
Jul 6: +22.32%
Jul 7: +13.61%
Jul 8: -16.33%
Jul 9: +77.99%
Jul 10: -14.99%
Jul 11: +11.48%
Jul 12: +36.89%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 29: +51.99%
Jun 30: +74.50%
Jul 1: +56.06%
Jul 2: -40.11%
Jul 3: +52.86%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: +7.04%
Jul 6: -10.79%
Jul 7: +52.71%
Jul 8: -9.65%
Jul 9: +90.35%
Jul 10: -26.62%
Jul 11: +9.52%
Jul 12: +128.28%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 29: +66.61%
Jun 30: +95.47%
Jul 1: +29.36%
Jul 2: -108.70%
Jul 3: +42.54%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: -4.89%
Jul 6: -76.61%
Jul 7: +42.32%
Jul 8: +35.86%
Jul 9: +30.65%
Jul 10: -16.74%
Jul 11: +28.65%
Jul 12: +89.15%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

We have two more trading days in June, but performance this month has followed typical seasonal behavior. Defensive groups tend to make up ground in June (also in March, September, and December - 3rd months within each calendar quarter) and that's exactly what we've seen in June 2026. If this behavior continues well into July and as the S&P 500 makes new highs, then we could have potential topping signs forming. It's way too early to go there, however.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Crude Oil. Oil prices took another big hit last week as crude ($WTIC) fell another 8.27% to $70 per barrel. As a result, the XLE (energy sector ETF) has retreated and tested a 4-month low at 53.03.

Volatility. The Volatility Index ($VIX) rose last week above 20 on 3 of the 5 trading days, but didn't close above 20 on any single day. That followed a move higher in the VIX earlier in June to the 23 level. It's not unusual to see a rising VIX during June. In fact, the VIX has risen during June in 13 of the last 20 years, or 65% of Junes. That is tied with January's 65% for the most among all calendar months. July, however, sees the opposite trend and lower VIX readings more often than not, especially during the first half of the month as the stock market typically has a pre-earnings run in anticipation of strong earnings.

Cryptocurrencies. Speaking of divergences, bitcoin ($BTCUSD) shows a positive divergence on its daily AND weekly charts, just as it tests key price support at 60000. I'm looking for bitcoin to turn higher sooner rather than later, and if the weekly positive divergence plays out to the 50-week SMA, bitcoin could be looking at a very significant potential gain of 30%-50%.

Jobs. The bond and stock markets are closed on Friday, July 3rd in observance of the July 4th holiday, which falls on a Saturday this year. So that means that the June Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on Thursday morning, one day after the June ADP employment report. Both reports are expected to show jobs coming in between 110,000-120,000. A number significantly higher than 120,000 could increase the inflation and possible rate hike talk, while a number below 110,000 could continue to spark many interest-rate-sensitive areas like regional banks, homebuilders, and small caps.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 22, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 17:32:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated Friday and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Thursday, June 18th (Market was closed on Friday, June 19th). You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

This chart doesn't change much, does it? If you're a long-time member of EB, then you know it's easy to remain on the long side as a long-term investor, if you concentrate on a chart like this one, instead of a 1-year chart. And you especially don't want to listen to all the noise in the headlines. Every "expert" in the world is trying to explain the positives and negatives and it definitely gets confusing.

Now, for a trader, this chart isn't all that useful.

But if you're a long-term investor, stick with this one chart and sleep better at night.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

If we include gaps, the QQQ:SPY ratio broke out again last week, even though the benchmark S&P 500 did not. That's generally a pretty good sign. The intraday QQQ:SPY ratio, which excludes gaps and focuses entirely on what happens after the opening bell, continued to consolidate.

Nothing here is bearish.

IWM:QQQ

While small caps (IWM) broke out last week to an all-time high on its absolute chart, its relative performance vs. the large cap growth NASDAQ 100 index (QQQ is ETF that tracks this index) was simply okay, nothing special. The lack of clarity on the future direction of interest rates is weighing on small caps (on a relative basis) for now, in my opinion.

XLY:XLP

The consolidation in the XLY:XLP ratio continues for now. I don't view this ratio as either bullish or bearish. I grow much more cautious when the S&P 500 breaks out with this ratio declining. Currently, both the SPX and this ratio are trading sideways. Furthermore, even if I wanted to consider this ratio a bit bearish, none of my other sustainability ratios are performing that poorly. I don't like to force a bearish opinion, it should come naturally from simply looking at these charts.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Now that the 5-day SMA of the CPCE has moved back into the .50s, there's really no directional clues being provided. It's neutral.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each chart as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a yr
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years
MKC - added last week; searching for a bottom with its monthly RSI at 32

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: FDX ($78 billion), CCL ($38 billion)
Wednesday: MU ($1.28 trillion), PAYX ($35 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: May new home sales, May leading economic indicators
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP (final revision), May personal income & spending, May PCE index, May durable goods orders
Friday: June consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 22: -25.23% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-5.28% over 53 trading days since 1950. -5.28% x 253/53 = -25.23%)
Jun 23: -4.16%
Jun 24: -35.49%
Jun 25: -14.47%
Jun 26: -69.28%
Jun 27: +2.62%
Jun 28: +41.58%
Jun 29: +6.42%
Jun 30: +36.16%
Jul 1: +70.86%
Jul 2: +18.71%
Jul 3: +80.16%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: +39.40%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 22: -33.43%
Jun 23: +19.56%
Jun 24: -26.05%
Jun 25: -9.22%
Jun 26: -32.16%
Jun 27: +1.35%
Jun 28: +81.88%
Jun 29: +51.99%
Jun 30: +74.50%
Jul 1: +56.06%
Jul 2: -40.11%
Jul 3: +52.86%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: +7.04%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 22: -75.31%
Jun 23: -7.82%
Jun 24: -117.15%
Jun 25: +15.68%
Jun 26: -10.46%
Jun 27: +44.32%
Jun 28: +122.28%
Jun 29: +66.61%
Jun 30: +95.47%
Jul 1: +29.36%
Jul 2: -108.70%
Jul 3: +42.54%
Jul 4: +0.00% (Market closed)
Jul 5: -4.89%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Small caps (IWM) managed to eke out new all-time highs last week, while we saw further consolidation in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Crude oil ($WTIC, -9.75%) tumbled to close well beneath key price support near the $84 per barrel level. Crude oil bounced a bit early in today's session, but has retreated again this afternoon, adding to last week's big drop.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

The Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh officially began his term on May 22nd and, last week, presided over his first FOMC meeting. He put his stamp on this new era by significantly cutting the wording in the Fed statement. Most market watchers widely believe the Fed's communication regarding future policy will be drastically reduced. At this latest meeting, the Fed Chair refrained from giving his interest rate forecast (dot plot), with others split 9 to 9 regarding a potential rate hike later in 2026.

Options Max Pain. Today's weakness isn't all that unusual for the Monday that follows monthly options expiration Friday. In fact, I routinely talk about the bearishness of this day as it's been the worst-performing day of the calendar month over the past 76 years, dating back to 1950. That's an interesting stat for traders, but has little impact on long-term investors.

Technical Conditions and MU Earnings. There are few earnings scheduled this week, although the Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) earnings will be watched closely after MU's massive run higher in 2026. MU has more than quadrupled in 2026, so it will need a near-perfect report to keep the current momentum going. Its excellent relative strength suggests there will be much positivity coming out of this report. Semiconductors ($DJUSSC) remain the leading industry group, so how MU goes could determine a great deal about how well the overall market performs this week.

Seasonality. We have another week to navigate before historical tailwinds return. Generally speaking, U.S. stocks tend to move higher into initial quarterly earnings reports, kicked off by the large money center banks in mid-July. It's difficult to say if we'll see that pattern again, but I did want to mention that upcoming seasonal strength.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 15, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated Friday and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, June 12th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week, I felt like the way the market finished, we'd likely see some more selling, which we did. Many large cap growth names struggled the first half of last week, while regaining much of their losses by Friday's close. In the end, it was nothing more than consolidation for our larger cap indices.

The ETFs that track the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) and mid cap S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (MDY) both set new all-time highs last week. So while our larger indices were moving back and forth, while consolidating recent gains, the smaller and mid-size stocks were breaking out.

Bullish rotation is a hallmark of secular bull markets. When the leaders sell off and the major indices pull back, money doesn't leave the stock market entirely. Instead, it rotates. Eventually that money comes back into the large cap leaders and our major indices set news highs. I believe we'll see that again, it's likely just a matter of whether it's quickly or if we'll have to wait for perhaps a Q2 pre-earnings move.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

I thought this ratio bounced back pretty nicely when the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 rebounded on Thursday and Friday. That's what I look for - how the market trades during a rebound, not how it trades during a selloff. Typically, the high-growth areas that led the initial move higher, will retreat during selloffs. The bigger question is, "does that money rotate back into high growth areas during a rebound". The answer last week was a resounding YES. That's bullish action.

IWM:QQQ

I suspected last week that consolidation among many large cap names could make the small cap IWM a beneficiary. That's generally what we saw as the IWM gained 4%, while the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) and S&P 500 ($SPX) gained 2.34% and 0.65%, respectively.

XLY:XLP

The XLY:XLP ratio isn't bearish, but it's definitely not overly bullish, by any means. I watch this ratio very closely and I'd feel even more bullish about the market if this ratio was climbing more steadily. It's still well off its low, but hasn't broken out with the S&P 500 for the past two months.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

One indicator that nailed the selling recently was the 5-day CPCE. I mentioned last week that this indicator suggested the S&P 500 wasn't likely to go much higher and.....voila! History tells us to be short-term cautious any time this 5-day SMA dips down below .50. At the low last week, this 5-day SMA hit 0.42, its lowest level since several readings below .40 in 2021. That extreme complacency can't predict with precision a big selloff, but it does warn us of a potential selloff at any moment.

Given the selling and consolidation, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE moved out of danger territory and is now more neutral, providing no real short-term directional clues.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each chart as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a year
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years

We're adding a classic growth & income stock to our Long-Term Trade Setups - McCormick & Company (MKC). The recent price drop in MKC from nearly 72 to a recent low beneath 46 set up its dividend yield at close to 4%, a super yield for a stock that has raised its dividend by 10% per year over the past decade. MKC has also raised its dividend for each of the past 40 years. The combination of the potential of future price appreciation, along with rising dividends, makes MKC a very solid investment opportunity at this level. According to stats at StockCharts.com, MKC's payout ratio (dividends divided by EPS) is only 30.49%, a very low level, indicative of a very safe dividend as well.

Currently, MKC's monthly RSI is at 35, near its lowest reading EVER. For long-term investors, I like entry in MKC here, with potential long-term price support from 37-46:

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: JBL ($40 billion)
Thursday: ACN ($111 billion), KR ($39 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: June empire state manufacturing survey, May industrial production & capacity utilization
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, May housing starts & building permits
Wednesday: May retail sales, May pending home sales, April business inventories, FOMC interest rate decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, May leading indicators
Friday: None - Juneteenth federal holiday, market closed

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 15: +18.27% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+3.90% over 54 trading days since 1950. +3.90% x 253/54 = +18.27%)
Jun 16: +27.89%
Jun 17: +14.10%
Jun 18: -22.20%
Jun 19: -13.89%
Jun 20: -23.59%
Jun 21: +13.57%
Jun 22: -25.23%
Jun 23: -4.16%
Jun 24: -35.49%
Jun 25: -14.47%
Jun 26: -69.28%
Jun 27: +2.62%
Jun 28: +41.58%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 15: +45.66%
Jun 16: +63.63%
Jun 17: +22.65%
Jun 18: -53.04%
Jun 19: +31.68%
Jun 20: -48.87%
Jun 21: +16.55%
Jun 22: -33.43%
Jun 23: +19.56%
Jun 24: -26.05%
Jun 25: -9.22%
Jun 26: -32.16%
Jun 27: +1.35%
Jun 28: +81.88%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 15: +84.42%
Jun 16: +9.97%
Jun 17: +19.06%
Jun 18: -33.56%
Jun 19: -8.37%
Jun 20: -67.36%
Jun 21: +30.23%
Jun 22: -75.31%
Jun 23: -7.82%
Jun 24: -117.15%
Jun 25: +15.68%
Jun 26: -10.46%
Jun 27: +44.32%
Jun 28: +122.28%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As long as we see key areas of the market setting new all-time highs, it's difficult to grow overly bearish. We saw quite a bit of selling to open the week last week, but by week's end, both small caps (IWM) and mid caps (MDY) had closed at fresh new all-time highs, while other areas, like semiconductors, consolidated. I'd view this is bullish behavior.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

The Fed. Well, it's Fed week again. It is widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. But, what will new Fed chief Warsh have any surprises for Wall Street? He's indicated that he wants the new Fed to be LESS communicative, which will likely help with all the dissent we've seen recently. After all, if you speak less, there's less opportunity to constantly be changing your view on policy - at least publicly. It's just my personal opinion, so feel free to disagree, but I believe the back and forth, yo-yo, Fed mentality the past several years added to the volatility in the market and contributed mightily to the 4 cyclical bear markets under Powell's watch. That was unprecedented as we've never seen a period of 8 years with 4 cyclical bear markets and 2 corrections. That's what we absorbed under Powell's Fed.

Inflation. Both the May CPI and May PPI were released last week and, while the PPI came in much hotter than expected, the Core CPI actually came in below expectations and that's the key number the Fed watches. I mentioned last week that if inflation did come in below expectations, that the small cap IWM could show renewed relative strength. That's what we saw.

Negative Divergences. They've largely been taken care of on the daily charts of most of our major indices. Momentum remains very strong on weekly charts, so rising 20-week EMAs should provide excellent support going forward. For reference, on the S&P 500, the 20-week EMA currently resides at 7112.11. That's less than 2% below last week's price low of 7237.85. I view the current trading range on the S&P 500 to be 7112-7610. Now that we're in the summer months, it'll be interesting to see if the bulls can keep their foot on the accelerator, or if we simply see a period of consolidation in the range described.

Seasonality. We tend to see a bit of bullishness early next week, based on historical performance, but after that, historical bearishness increases until we begin a typical Q2 pre-earnings run around June 28th.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 8, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 10:33:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated last Thursday and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL) - updated this morning

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, June 5th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Friday's big selloff is nothing more than a blip here on the long-term S&P 500 chart. These types of sudden selloffs no doubt rattle most of us when they occur, especially if we focus on short-term trading. Sizable gains turn into losses in minutes and then quickly grow. It seems as if buyers have disappeared and, technically, they have. I always refer to it as "market makers going on vacation". Even though institutional investors have bought shares of many stocks at higher prices, they don't worry about short-term selling, because they have a long-term mindset. Institutions are moving way too much money to trade in and out in the near-term.

Most of the time these steep declines occur during bear markets and generally results in massive volume as individual investors panic and sell. On Friday, the S&P 500 volume was a bit more than average, but not massive. The heaviest volume occurred in the final two hours. I believe there may have been some panicked selling between 2pm and 3pm ET, particularly in many of the growth stocks (semiconductors for sure), then things stabilized in the final hour - likely due to market makers finally stepping in to support (buy) the market at much lower prices.

Usually, these types of selling events do not occur in just one single day. I'm expecting to see more selling near-term, possibly selling and consolidation until Q2 pre-earnings activity begins later this month into early July, when market conditions tend to be very bullish.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

After weeks of parabolically higher action in this ratio, Friday reversed everything - at least in the short-term. Growth stocks were decidedly weaker and that translated into a falling QQQ:SPY ratio. Profit taking is part of the game, so don't be surprised if we see further weakness in this ratio throughout June.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap IWM weakened considerably vs. the growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 during the first half of last week, but it avoided some of the damage inflicted late last week. The IWM still fell on Friday, but it did manage to outperform the NASDAQ. Two inflation reports will be out later this week. If they turn out to be rather benign, which I believe they will, there's a reasonable chance that we'll see the IWM's relative strength on Thursday and Friday continue this week. If growth stocks have a difficult next few weeks, that money will go somewhere and small caps could be a beneficiary.

XLY:XLP

Last week, I was anticipating a potential breakout in this ratio above the April high. Instead, the ratio turned back down, so we'll have to wait for a potential breakout. Friday was a particularly rough day for this ratio as the defensive staples sector (XLP) advanced as money rotated heavily away from aggressive areas and favored defensive sectors.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

One indicator that nailed the selling was the 5-day CPCE. I mentioned last week that this indicator suggested the S&P 500 wasn't likely to go much higher and.....voila! History tells us to be short-term cautious any time this 5-day SMA dips down below .50. At the low last week, this 5-day SMA hit 0.42, its lowest level since several readings below .40 in 2021. That extreme complacency can't predict with precision a big selloff, but it does warn us of a potential selloff at any moment.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

If I'm being honest, I'm really not quite sure what this 253-day SMA is telling us. At the beginning of the year, I expected that we'd see selling, followed by choppy action, in order for the recent uptrend to mature. Then I figured we'd be set up for more bullish action later in 2026. Instead, the uptrend in this 253-day SMA has been stymied as it's rolled over. At this point, I'm just not using this moving average in trying to determine market direction as its signal isn't clear.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each chart as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a yr
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: CASY ($28 billion)
Wednesday: ORCL ($680 billion)
Thursday: ADBE ($104 billion), LEN ($23 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: May existing home sales, April wholesale inventories
Wednesday: May CPI
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, May PPI
Friday: June consumer sentiment

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 8: -18.56% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-3.96% over 54 trading days since 1950. -3.96% x 253/54 = -18.56%)
Jun 9: -62.24%
Jun 10: +12.68%
Jun 11: -17.37%
Jun 12: +12.05%
Jun 13: +6.39%
Jun 14: -12.52%
Jun 15: +18.27%
Jun 16: +27.89%
Jun 17: +14.10%
Jun 18: -22.20%
Jun 19: -13.89%
Jun 20: -23.59%
Jun 21: +13.57%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 8: -18.14%
Jun 9: -46.06%
Jun 10: -0.57%
Jun 11: -66.85%
Jun 12: +7.94%
Jun 13: -7.85%
Jun 14: -22.67%
Jun 15: +45.66%
Jun 16: +63.63%
Jun 17: +22.65%
Jun 18: -53.04%
Jun 19: +31.68%
Jun 20: -48.87%
Jun 21: +16.55%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 8: +1.50%
Jun 9: -60.71%
Jun 10: -50.39%
Jun 11: -153.91%
Jun 12: -17.62%
Jun 13: -28.83%
Jun 14: -40.88%
Jun 15: +84.42%
Jun 16: +9.97%
Jun 17: +19.06%
Jun 18: -33.56%
Jun 19: -8.37%
Jun 20: -67.36%
Jun 21: +30.23%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

In my opinion, the media wants us to believe the inflation story. Personally, I don't. Maybe I'm wrong. Until Friday, there's been very little evidence that Wall Street believes the inflation story. Growth stocks had been soaring, prior to Friday, which is completely opposite what we would see if inflation was a problem. So the million dollar question is this: Did Friday change everything? I don't believe so. I was traveling on Friday and was aware of the selloff, but really couldn't drive and study the action simultaneously. So I didn't really evaluate much until late last night.

Here's what I think after reviewing a number of charts last night and looking ahead to this week:

Inflation. Well, we're getting two more key inflation reports this week in the CPI on Wednesday and the PPI on Thursday. Wednesday's report is much more important, in my view. The April Core CPI, which is the number I watch closely, jumped to +0.4%. I really don't want to see a Core CPI number any higher than that. May Core CPI is expected to retreat slightly to +0.3%. That number, or anything lower, should be solid for growth stocks, even if we do see further short-term weakness.

Seasonality. Earnings season has wound down, except for a few companies (like ORCL later this week). The stock market gets bored once earnings season is behind us, and we do see some weakness during this period (third month) of each calendar quarter. Remember, the first half of calendar quarters has a LONG history of performing better than second halves. Don't let some weakness in the second half of this quarter misguide you. Short-term, we could see more turbulence. Longer-term, however, I remain very bullish.

Semiconductors. This has been the lifeline of the S&P 500 for years. The group (SOXX) was annihilated on Friday to the tune of 10.44%. It also lost its 20-day EMA....barely. A quick recovery and close back above the 20-day EMA could help to stave off more selling, but another close below the 20-day EMA could present a big problem. There's a negative divergence in play, so loss of the 20-day EMA could lead to a larger drop and a 50-day SMA test to reset the PPO closer to the zero line. Over the past 20 years, June has been one of the weaker months for semis.

Technical Indicators. The negative divergences on the daily charts are probably the most worrisome short-term issue for me. Whether we see weakness play out to 50-day SMAs is almost assuredly dependent upon the semiconductors. Therefore, keep a close eye on the SOXX to see if it can remain above its 20-day EMA. Thus far today, the rebound has been fairly impressive, but action this afternoon and into the close will be much more meaningful. To give you a golf analogy, "drive for show, putt for dough". It's how you close that matters.

Long-Term Clarity. I remain VERY bullish the long-term. This is just my opinion, and I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), but I believe long-term investors should continue to stay the course. It's what I said at the beginning of the year and it's what I continue to say. I believe that stock prices are going higher over time. I do NOT see any significant long-term period of selling on the horizon and would be very surprised to see the current selling morph into anything greater than a short-term pullback. From a LONG-TERM perspective, I view 7000 as solid support on the S&P 500.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 1, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:53:00 +0000

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ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated either late yesterday or earlier this morning and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Seasonality - June 2026 (SEASCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, May 29th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I wondered last week if we could close above 7501 after establishing that closing high on May 14th. Well, the options-related pullback didn't last long, and the holiday-shortened week last week took almost no time to find another all-time high on Tuesday morning. We have now closed at record highs on the S&P 500 on each of the last four days. Futures are pointing to more records as we open up this week.

Betting against a secular bull market advance is akin to laying down on a railroad track. You're going to get run over. Have our major indices surged higher than I thought they would by this time in 2026? Absolutely. Would I bet against a further advance? No way.

Our default should always be to be long during secular bull market advances. The signs to get out have to pile up and be overwhelming. I'm not seeing enough of those signs to be bearish, or even cautious.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

This ratio is in "straight-up" mode, which is an indication that market participants are totally in a risk on type of market environment. It's this type of market environment that leads to higher highs and further rotation into aggressive growth stocks.

IWM:QQQ

As I've mentioned recently, the IWM has not been the place to be on a relative performance basis. Small caps have been moving higher and, in fact, set a new all-time record last week, but their relative underperformance continues. Until Wall Street believes the Fed is back in a rate-cutting mood, the relative upside in small caps is likely limited.

XLY:XLP

I have felt that this ratio would turn back higher and support the all-time highs being set across our major indices week after week. All of the other sustainability ratios were much more bullish. Well, we've now seen a very solid rebound in this XLY:XLP ratio and we could even see a breakout this week. The turn back to the upside is very bullish.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

There was an individual daily print of the CPCE at .39 last week and the 5-day SMA tumbled to a fresh new low. I'm beginning to suspect that we'll see a lot of healthy, bullish rotation, but not a lot more upside from the S&P 500. I'm not betting against it, just saying that sentiment signs are pointing to at least a pause in the current uptrend.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This moving average has turned back to the downside and is quite choppy - from a long-term perspective. We're not simply going up or going down. Instead, we're going back and forth. If we can clear the low set in Q4 2025, it would add to the current bullishness.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below I'm providing my latest update for all stocks - from a long-term (monthly charts) perspective - as of Friday, May 29th:

JPM - trending above its 20-day EMA, bullish
BA - since the 2020 drop, overhead resistance has been set at 270-275
FFIV - broke to all-time high in May
MA - steady decline has stock approaching its 50-month SMA; nice entry spot
GS - relative leader in space, setting new all-time highs, bullish
FDX - setting new records, despite AMZN announcement to compete
AAPL - also setting new records, looks excellent
CHRW - consolidating in wide 150-200 range after 2025 breakout
JBHT - keeps trending up after breakout to clear years of consolidation
STX - astounding rally off April 2025 low continues
HSY - sloppy cup with handle? If so, needs to hold 180 support
DIS - lengthy consolidation from 80-125 now 4 years deep
MSCI - nice advance past two months, long-awaited breakout coming?
SBUX - another long-time consolidation stock, needs to clear 112-114
KRE - long-term rally still intact, despite recent struggles
ED - watching support near its 20-month EMA just above 100
AJG - monthly RSI has dipped below 40 for only the second time since 2009
NSC - cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI - has bottom finally been found? Huge dividend yield, if dividend not cut
ADM - purchase back in 40s now looks genius as it approaches a double in a yr
BG - uptrending in all-time high territory
CVS - tested all-time high resistance, but then failed; still remains solid
HRL - dividend aristocrat reversed nicely in May; bottom in?
DE - pulling back to approach rising 20-month EMA
LULU - pierced the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84 and bounced
TTD - even with a much stronger software group, TTD is trading poorly
META - trading right around its 20-month EMA, likely solid entry
ADBE - strengthening with first MAJOR test at declining 20-month EMA
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, looking for support in the 90s to hold
ORCL - jumped 40% in May, suggesting our entry earlier was a smart one
ABBV - very nice recovery off 20-month EMA test
MCD - trades 6 bucks above its 50-month SMA; hasn't closed beneath this MA in 23 years

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: HPE ($51 billion), CRDO ($41 billion)
Tuesday: PANW ($210 billion)
Wednesday: AVGO ($2.02 trillion), CRWD ($170 billion), MDT ($97 billion)
Thursday: CIEN ($81 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: May ISM manufacturing, April construction spending
Tuesday: April JOLTS
Wednesday: May ADP employment report, April factory orders, May ISM services, Fed beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q1 productivity
Friday: May nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & hourly wages

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 1: +54.02% (Ex: cumulative gains =
+11.10% over 52 trading days since 1950. +11.10% x 253/52 = +54.02%)
Jun 2: +38.16%
Jun 3: +6.79%
Jun 4: -0.99%
Jun 5: +44.59%
Jun 6: +59.15%
Jun 7: +3.37%
Jun 8: -18.56%
Jun 9: -62.24%
Jun 10: +12.68%
Jun 11: -17.37%
Jun 12: +12.05%
Jun 13: +6.39%
Jun 14: -12.52%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 1: +73.91%
Jun 2: +132.50%
Jun 3: -59.13%
Jun 4: +80.53%
Jun 5: +99.55%
Jun 6: -5.16%
Jun 7: +17.61%
Jun 8: -18.14%
Jun 9: -46.06%
Jun 10: -0.57%
Jun 11: -66.85%
Jun 12: +7.94%
Jun 13: -7.85%
Jun 14: -22.67%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 1: +113.13%
Jun 2: +173.13%
Jun 3: -44.86%
Jun 4: +38.36%
Jun 5: +85.52%
Jun 6: -4.31%
Jun 7: +32.75%
Jun 8: +1.50%
Jun 9: -60.71%
Jun 10: -50.39%
Jun 11: -153.91%
Jun 12: -17.62%
Jun 13: -28.83%
Jun 14: -40.88%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It's jobs week. The expectation is that we'll see a positive 90,000 number, which would continue to be a goldilocks scenario for U.S. equities. We want a number that's not too hot and not too cold. The key to watch on the charts, however, is how growth stocks react to the report. I believe that's more important than the report itself.

Here's what I'll be watching this week:

Software. I've been talking up this group for weeks now. There have been positive technical signs coming off the March low. The daily chart shows a group that's been trending above its rising 20-day EMA for the past several weeks. There are always two sides to every story, however, so we have to understand what could derail the group. For me, it's easy. Check out this weekly chart and potential right shoulder forming:

I believe this is the "line in the sand" for the bears. They do not want to see software clear its 50-week SMA. In the meantime, the bulls know what comes next if the neckline support fails.

Semiconductors. This is the largest industry group in the S&P 500 and 2nd place isn't particularly close. Therefore, whatever happens to this group matters. We've had a massive run in semiconductors, so one of my biggest questions is....what happens to the S&P 500 when semis do inevitably consolidate, or even (gasp!), selloff? Does money leave the market with a more significant selloff in the S&P 500? Or does money rotate to other areas like software to mitigate the technical damage on our major indices? I believe it'll be the latter.

Other Industries. Computer hardware ($DJUSCR) and renewable energy ($DWCREE) are showing signs of significant strength, in addition to software. These are areas that could benefit substantially if we see rotation away from semis for a period of time.

Seasonality. The S&P 500, along with the other major indices, does have a tendency to struggle a bit once the first week of June ends. As I mentioned earlier, I don't like to bet against secular bull market advances. But seeing a pause of period of consolidation cannot be ruled out, especially during the slower summer months.

Jobs. I look at nonfarm payrolls as the economy's "report card". This report is a key driver in the direction of interest rates. And interest rates and earnings are what drive the stock market over time. I believe a jobs number between 0 and 150,000 would be viewed positively by Wall Street.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Tom Bowley — Tue, 26 May 2026 07:00:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated either late yesterday or earlier this morning and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, May 22nd. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week, I suggested that 7500 was likely a short-term top and that we could see an upcoming 20-day EMA test. Well, there was a bit of weakness as the S&P 500 started the weak in negative territory, almost reaching its first 20-day EMA test since this rally started in late March. It didn't quite make it, however, and the bulls were at it again. The S&P 500 saw another test of 7500 on Friday, but wasn't able to clear it on a closing basis. This is a clear illustration why calling tops in a secular bull market advance is so dangerous. It took the bulls exactly 3 trading days to quickly resume the uptrend and test overhead price resistance.

I ALWAYS respect all-time high closes during secular bull markets, so if the S&P 500 can close above 7501, then it's "game on" once again for the bulls. Rotation into growth stocks did slow last week as we saw leadership from areas like utilities (XLU), health care (XLV), and real estate (XLRE) on the rebound.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

It's increasingly difficult to buy into the inflation hype when this ratio continues to push higher and higher.

IWM:QQQ

This intraday reading continues to spiral lower. While I don't believe inflation will be a longer-term issue, many market participants seem to be shying away from small caps with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) spiking. I see better days ahead for the IWM, but short-term, things are dicey in the small cap world.

XLY:XLP

There remains some hesitation in this ratio, so it is reason to pause and check other indicators to see if there's corroboration. I don't see enough warning signs to believe that any pullback at hand would be anything other than a short-term pullback after an extended run. If this ratio should continue lower and clear both the intraday and closing XLY:XLP ratio support from late March, then I would be willing to consider that as a stronger warning.

There was reason for concern on the XLY:XLP ratio as it's been drifting lower and lower and is not really supporting the big upside move in the S&P 500. The bounce last week was welcome relief, though there is still plenty more work to do to reach new highs.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

The latest short-term warning from this 5-day CPCE did produce a 2% or so drop in the S&P 500, but not much more. That's why I look at this sentiment indicator as my "speed boat" indicator. It provides very short-term reversal signals that, typically, are quite reliable.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This long-term moving average seems to be searching for direction. It looked like we had reversed the downtrend and started potentially a lengthy rise. That has changed as this moving average rolls over and now heads lower. Which is it? I'd simply say this signal is neutral at the moment, though it will be bullish if it keeps moving lower.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and I reviewed all of the following stocks as of Monday, May 4th:

JPM – has consolidated with the entire banking industry, still looks solid
BA – 275 remains the long-term obstacle, now trending above 20-month EMA
FFIV – trending up above its 20-month EMA
MA – last week's high pierced 20-week EMA, but was false breakout
GS – very extended, remains strong relative to its investment services peers
FDX – set new all-time high, but AMZN just announced competing service
AAPL –strengthening on weekly chart, needs to clear 288.35
CHRW – pulling back and consolidating after doubling in 6 months
JBHT –nice breakout in 2026 after 3-4 years of consolidation
STX - simply amazing run since April 2025 low, seems no end in sight
HSY - very disappointing failure to hold onto 200 price support
DIS - been waiting on this one for awhile, needs to hold 77-80 support
MSCI - 4+ years of consolidation continues after prior rapid ascent
SBUX - short-term breakout near 100, now staring at major 115 resistance
KRE – still looks great in the long-term, awaiting lower interest rates
ED – retesting recent breakout near the 110 level; 17-year uptrend intact
AJG - year-long downtrend remains in place, watch 194.41 price support
NSC – cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI – support in 22-23 range now established and needs to hold
ADM – remains in solid uptrend off April 2025 low
BG – breakout in January 2026 has led to further gains, nice uptrend
CVS – big rally off 20-month EMA support, key resistance near 95
HRL - weak stock, but it is a dividend aristocrat (raising dividends for 25 yrs+)
DE – trending up, but continues to significantly underperform CAT
LULU - will the bleeding stop at the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84?
TTD - software is rebounding, but TTD's relative strength remains weak
META - big gap lower last week with earnings, gap support is 606
ADBE - bouncing with software rebound, key initial resistance at 259
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, with solid price support at 95
ORCL - added most recently and it's soared, leading April software rebound
ABBV - added last week after a recent 20% decline to its 20-month EMA
MCD - added last week after a 2 1/2 month decline, and amidst a rising yield

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: None
Tuesday: AZO ($57 billion)
Wednesday: MRVL ($171 billion), CRM ($144 billion), PDD ($139 billion), SNPS ($97 billion), SNOW ($57 billion)
Thursday: COST ($466 billion), DELL ($163 billion), ADSK ($51 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: March S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May consumer confidence
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, April durable goods, April new home sales
Friday: Q1 GDP (2nd estimate), April personal income & spending, April PCE index, May Chicago PMI

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

May 25: -15.90% (Ex: cumulative gains =
-2.89% over 46 trading days since 1950. -2.89% x 253/46 = -15.90%)
May 26: +54.11%
May 27: +67.71%
May 28: +2.19%
May 29: +24.25%
May 30: +46.09%
May 31: +31.78%
Jun 1: +54.02%
Jun 2: +38.16%
Jun 3: +6.79%
Jun 4: -0.99%
Jun 5: +44.59%
Jun 6: +59.15%
Jun 7: +3.37%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

May 25: +15.82%
May 26: +106.29%
May 27: +175.36%
May 28: +37.03%
May 29: -36.86%
May 30: +28.79%
May 31: -8.12%
Jun 1: +73.91%
Jun 2: +132.50%
Jun 3: -59.13%
Jun 4: +80.53%
Jun 5: +99.55%
Jun 6: -5.16%
Jun 7: +17.61%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

May 25: +38.88%
May 26: +170.50%
May 27: +199.60%
May 28: +0.94%
May 29: +4.42%
May 30: +44.38%
May 31: +24.72%
Jun 1: +113.13%
Jun 2: +173.13%
Jun 3: -44.86%
Jun 4: +38.36%
Jun 5: +85.52%
Jun 6: -4.31%
Jun 7: +32.75%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Max pain has come and gone for the month of May. After the massive run up off of the late-March low, there were a TON of net in-the-money call premium on the table for market makers and we saw what happened on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. The SPY fell from Thursday's close of 748.17 to Tuesday's close of 733.73. That's only a 2% or so drop, but it literally saved option payouts of billions of dollars. And perhaps the most interesting part was the fact that the SPY fell 9.59 on gap downs over those 3 days. That was roughly two-thirds of the entire drop. So you tell me.....was there really a lot of selling or was it just market maker manipulation, legally stealing from options holders? I mean, 3 days later, we're right back where we were before the options-related selling occurred.

These big Wall Street firms are THIEVES. Anyhow, it's over for this month, so here's what I'm focused on this week:

Technical Price Action. I was looking for a potential 20-day EMA test last week, given the typical negative action associated with monthly options expiration and the early part of the week following, especially the Monday that follows monthly-options-expiration Friday. We did see the semi ETF (SOXX) test its 20-day EMA on Tuesday of last week, but this group showed its power by snapping back and moving to yet another all-time high. I was a bit surprised by that action, however, I've said many times before that secular bull markets wait for no one. We should always respect all-time highs. The most important technical signal that I'll be watching is the rising 20-day EMA across our major indices and sectors.

Interest Rates. Just like the stock market, the bond market sold off for 3 days, Friday through Tuesday, and the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) soared from 4.46% to a high of 4.69%. That took a toll on interest-rate-sensitive areas like small caps (IWM) and home construction ($DJUSHB). The good news, however, is that treasury yields turned considerably lower over the second half of last week and those two areas recovered rapidly. I still view 4.75% and 5.00% as the two key levels of yield resistance to watch. I don't believe we'll see the TNX move above 5.00%, but it sure would be interesting to see how the stock market reacts if it happens.

Energy. There's no area of the stock market more volatile than energy (XLE). It seems as though just a few texts from the President or media commentary can move this sector 5-10% very quickly. The trading range for crude oil is quite wide at $85-$120 per barrel, in my opinion. Developments in Iran, or the lack thereof, are totally controlling the action here. If you can predict the short-term tops and bottoms in this group, you can make a lot of money. I'm not that good.

Seasonality. The next week to ten days certainly favor the bulls. Scroll up and check out the annualized returns, by day, of each of our 3 key indices. May 26th through June 5th or 6th historically produces solid annualized gains, which also lines up with how most calendar months trade. The last several days of one calendar month and the first 3-5 days of the next tend to produce the lions share of market gains since 1950.

Happy trading!

Tom

EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, May 18, 2026

Tom Bowley — Mon, 18 May 2026 05:13:00 +0000

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated either late yesterday or earlier this morning and have been updated on our website:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Upcoming Earnings
Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, May 15th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Given the current overbought conditions, potential fallout from max pain, higher-than-expected inflation readings last week, and the surge higher in the 10-year treasury yield AND crude oil, I think there's a good chance that we've seen a short-term top at 7500 on the S&P 500. The 5-day CPCE (shown below) would corroborate this assessment. It doesn't change a thing as far as my long-term forecast. I still fully expect we'll continue to see record highs later this year and in 2027. But, in the very near-term, I could see a 20-day EMA test upcoming and if, for some reason, that 20-day EMA fails to hold, 7000 would be a very important price and psychological support level.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Growth stocks generally perform poorly when Wall Street anticipates an inflation problem. The QQQ:SPY never even paused with those inflation readings, which tells me that any perceived inflation problem will be short-lived.

IWM:QQQ

XLY:XLP

I'm willing to give this ratio a bit of room as the market digests recent gains.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

It was very odd, but the last low in the 5-day CPCE did not provide any sort of short-term top. We almost always see at least a 2%-3% drop when this 5-day moving average reaches the .47-.48 level. Not last time, though. Well, the 5-day SMA has dropped below .48 yet again. This time, the S&P 500 seems to be more willing to roll over after hitting the 7500 level. This 5-day CPCE is usually a fairly reliable indicator for a short-term pullback, so I'm going to side with bears right now. Should we test the rising 20-day EMA, I'll likely grow more short-term bullish.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and I reviewed all of the following stocks as of last Monday, May 4th:

JPM – has consolidated with the entire banking industry, still looks solid
BA – 275 remains the long-term obstacle, now trending above 20-month EMA
FFIV – trending up above its 20-month EMA
MA – last week's high pierced 20-week EMA, but was false breakout
GS – very extended, remains strong relative to its investment services peers
FDX – set new all-time high, but AMZN just announced competing service
AAPL –strengthening on weekly chart, needs to clear 288.35
CHRW – pulling back and consolidating after doubling in 6 months
JBHT –nice breakout in 2026 after 3-4 years of consolidation
STX - simply amazing run since April 2025 low, seems no end in sight
HSY - very disappointing failure to hold onto 200 price support
DIS - been waiting on this one for awhile, needs to hold 77-80 support
MSCI - 4+ years of consolidation continues after prior rapid ascent
SBUX - short-term breakout near 100, now staring at major 115 resistance
KRE – still looks great in the long-term, awaiting lower interest rates
ED – retesting recent breakout near the 110 level; 17-year uptrend intact
AJG - year-long downtrend remains in place, watch 194.41 price support
NSC – cup with handle breakout in mid-2025, measurement to 360 or so
RHI – support in 22-23 range now established and needs to hold
ADM – remains in solid uptrend off April 2025 low
BG – breakout in January 2026 has led to further gains, nice uptrend
CVS – big rally off 20-month EMA support, key resistance near 95
HRL - weak stock, but it is a dividend aristocrat (raising dividends for 25 yrs+)
DE – trending up, but continues to significantly underperform CAT
LULU - will the bleeding stop at the 2020 pandemic low of 128.84?
TTD - software is rebounding, but TTD's relative strength remains weak
META - big gap lower last week with earnings, gap support is 606
ADBE - bouncing with software rebound, key initial resistance at 259
KMB - another dividend aristocrat, with solid price support at 95
ORCL - added most recently and it's soared, leading April software rebound
ABBV - added last week after a recent 20% decline to its 20-month EMA
MCD - added last week after a 2 1/2 month decline, and amidst a rising yield

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Monday: BIDU ($51 billion)
Tuesday: HD ($301 billion), KEYS ($62 billion)
Wednesday: NVDA ($5.47 trillion), ADI ($211 billion), TJX ($163 billion), LOW ($123 billion), INTU ($103 billion)
Thursday: WMT ($1.05 trillion), DE ($157 billion), NTES ($76 billion), ROST ($68 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: April pending home sales
Wednesday: FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, April housing starts & building permits, May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Friday: May consumer sentiment, April leading indicators

Historical Data

S&P 500 (since 1950)

May 18: -13.84% (Ex: cumulative gains =-2.95% over 54 trading days since 1950. -2.95% x 253/54 = -13.84%)
May 19: -24.84%
May 20: -13.54%
May 21: -17.00%
May 22: +7.87%
May 23: -42.73%
May 24: -5.11%
May 25: -15.90%
May 26: +54.11%
May 27: +67.71%
May 28: +2.19%
May 29: +24.25%
May 30: +46.09%
May 31: +31.78%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

May 18: -9.09%
May 19: -40.95%
May 20: -15.72%
May 21: +8.14%
May 22: +33.58%
May 23: -61.46%
May 24: +16.31%
May 25: +15.82%
May 26: +106.29%
May 27: +175.36%
May 28: +37.03%
May 29: -36.86%
May 30: +28.79%
May 31: -8.12%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

May 18: +82.33%
May 19: -39.72%
May 20: -27.33%
May 21: +79.76%
May 22: -12.32%
May 23: -46.30%
May 24: -10.50%
May 25: +38.88%
May 26: +170.50%
May 27: +199.60%
May 28: +0.94%
May 29: +4.42%
May 30: +44.38%
May 31: +24.72%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The secular bull market advance almost dodged two very hot inflationary reports and monthly max pain associated with May options expiration. Almost. Market makers finally played some games on Friday morning as we saw gap downs, especially in areas where plenty of options are traded - like semiconductors ($DJUSSC). Between index and stock options, I imagine billions of dollars were saved on Friday alone. Many call option holders will exercise their options, putting them at further risk on Monday and the early part of next week. This is what I'll be watching:

Inflation? Can we take the thought of higher inflation seriously, when large cap growth (IWF, +0.67%) easily outperforms large cap value (IWD, -0.74%) on the heels of those two hot readings on CPI and PPI? Also, gold ($GOLD, -3.73%) is widely considered a hedge against inflation, so why weren't investors flocking there? The reports showed inflation. The media headlines talked about inflation. But Wall Street didn't seem to be concerned about inflation. I pay attention to the latter.

Earnings. Earnings are essentially over for Q1. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) will be reporting this week and is not the technical leader of semiconductors like it's been in the past. In fact, its relative strength vs. the semiconductor group has been downtrending for almost a year. Don't be shocked if NVDA disappoints this week. If so, semis have probably topped for a bit. There will be a few other big reports like Walmart (WMT), but the overwhelming number of companies have now reported. It was another very strong earnings season, helping to explain the massive run up in stock prices.

Sentiment. The 5-day CPCE doesn't call short-term reversals wrong very often. The low 5-day reading in mid-April did nothing to slow the bulls, but last week another short-term warning sign printed as this moving average dipped to .48 again, and the S&P 500 appeared to print a top on Thursday, given the selling that took place on Friday.

Interest Rates. While stocks didn't react to the inflation reports the way I expected, treasury yields surely did. The TNX soared last week, rising on 4 of the 5 days and reaching 4.60%, a level not seen since July 2025. 4.75% and 5.00% are the next two key resistance levels. A move above 5.00% is something that I believe could really spook the market in the short-term, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the TNX. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and that has the potential to jar investors.

Technical Price Action. While we can talk all day long about this secondary indicator or that secondary indicator, and what those signals might mean, there's nothing more important than the price action. Right now, price action is bullish. End of story. Therefore, I expect key support will hold. My best guess is that a 20-day EMA test is coming and the market will bounce off of that. Further down the road, I do believe a 7000 test is possible, but I want to see how the market reacts to a 20-day EMA test first.

Happy trading!

Tom