September Can Be A Bad Month, But...

There is no denying the rally off the June low.

It's been extremely quick and very impressive. Every sector has participated to some degree and most industries have been able to reclaim their now-rising 20-day EMAs. It's certainly caught most bears by surprise.

But now, as we look ahead, the bears are pointing to September. That'll be the month that takes this "bear market rally down", right? After all, the S&P 500 has fallen in September 39 of the past 72 years. It's the only calendar month of the year that has fallen more times than it's climbed. And while we could see some weakness in September, it might not be the aggressive stocks that struggle.

In fact, check out this table of sector relative performance by calendar month through year end:

Enter Sectors:

Let me point out that this is how each sector performs relative to the S&P 500. As we look ahead to September, there is mostly relative STRENGTH during September by the aggressive sectors.

Keep in mind this table is only for the past 10 years - since this secular bull market began. But I believe the secular bull market has resumed and we're heading much, much higher in time.

What does this mean?

• Will September be a problem child? If so, will it be led lower by energy (XLE) and real estate (XLRE)? These are the two sectors that have historically struggled over the past decade. Time will tell.

Happy Trading! Tom Bowley Chief Market Strategist EarningsBeats.com Better Timing. Better Trades.