EB Daily Market Report - December 13, 2019
Executive Market Summary
- U.S. and China reach phase one trade deal
- Technically, it feels like "buy on rumor, sell on news" event
- Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples (XLP) are among today's leaders
- Materials (XLB) is today's laggard
- Crude oil ($WTIC) is up 1.3% and just below $60 per barrel, a level that we've closed above on only a few occasions since May
- Apple (AAPL) setting new highs on better-than-average volume, aiding the Dow Jones
- Our alert TPX showing strength off earlier lows
Market Outlook
I'll be a bit brief in today's DMR.
I want to share some historical facts with you about December performance. The 7th through the 15th has had a tendency to move lower. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen during this time period 39 times out of 70. Currently, we're higher than we were on the December 6th close. Of the 31 different years that we managed to rise from the December 6th close to the December 15th close, we ended the year even higher on 23 occasions. That leaves 8 times where we finished lower from December 15th to December 31st, but 6 of those 8 years were losses of less than 1% with 2 of those losses between 1%-2% loss.
In other words, when we rise from December 6th to December 15th, the tendency is for that strength to continue right into year end.
Sector/Industry Focus
Here's a quick look at today's sector action:
Active Trade Alerts
We have one active trade alert currently:
TPX (+0.98%) - reports earnings on February 12. TPX neared lows from Tuesday, but has rebounded higher with notably more volume coming in the past hour or so:
I'm not sure if the added volume is of any technical significance since we're not clearing any important price hurdle, but I'll always have bullish thoughts when a stock moves higher and the volume accelerates.
Strong Earnings ChartList (SECL)
Here's a quick glance at the best performers today on our SECL:
A couple of quick notes on several of these:
SYNA - attempting to break out of a bull flag pattern.
SHOP - seems to be printing right side of a cup on excellent volume.
GH - breaking short-term downtrend line.
CYBR - ditto SHOP.
BGG - testing 20 day EMA, could be printing a short-term top.
TENB - bullish engulfing candle today? If that pattern confirms at close, we could see a reversal of recent downtrend.
MR - featured recently in DMR. Suggested a move above 6 could lead to more significant gains. Hit 7.00 today just 5 days later.
Movers & Shakers
Here are the top performers in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) today:
A couple quick notes on a few of these:
ADBE - big breakout today with confirming volume. Looks good for a trend trade. 360 measurement in time.
LBTYA - positive divergence on daily chart. I could see a short-term run to 23.50, though the long-term chart is not good.
HAS - clearing 50 day SMA, but lots of resistance between 102.50-105.00. Needs volume to confirm a breakout above 105.00.
JD - leading broadline retailer completing right side of cup - bullish.
Earnings Reports
Here are the key earnings reports for this week, featuring stocks with market caps of more than $5 billion. I also include a few select companies with market caps below $5 billion. Finally, any portfolio stocks (or active trade alerts) that will be reporting results are highlighted in BOLD. Please make sure you check for earnings dates for any companies you own or are considering owning:
Friday, December 13:
None
Monday, December 16:
HEI
Economic Reports
November retail sales: +0.2% (actual) vs. +0.5% (estimate)
November retail sales less autos: +0.1% (actual) vs. +0.4% (estimate)
October business inventories: +0.2% (actual) vs. +0.2% (estimate)
Happy trading!
Tom