EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, June 29, 2021

ChartList Update

The Raised Guidance ChartList (RGCL) has been updated. The link and new password is provided on our website and is available for download for Extra or Pro members at StockCharts.com. For those using platforms other than StockCharts.com, we are now providing Excel files with ticker symbols so that you can download them into whatever platform you're using.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us at "[email protected]".

Executive Market Summary

• Futures were bifurcated once again, but this time favoring the Dow Jones and S&P 500 as the NASDAQ lags on a relative basis
• Commodities are retreating once again, with gold (GLD) lower by 1.50% and trading at lowest level since April
• A rising dollar (UUP, +0.26%) is negatively impacting commodity prices
• Crude oil ($WTIC), however, is up fractionally, aiding energy (XLE, +0.53%), today's top sector
• Consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.40%) is also performing well, led by footwear ($DJUSFT, +2.20%) and home construction ($DJUSHB, +2.02%)
• Qorvo (QRVO, +4.08%) and Morgan Stanley (MS, +3.98%) are the S&P 500 leaders on today's session
• Dow Jones' strength is coming from Nike (NKE, +2.25%) and Goldman Sachs (GS, +2.14%)

Market Outlook

From a bearish perspective, transports ($TRAN) are currently struggling as they trend beneath the now-declining 20-day EMA:

I don't really view this to be a big problem, but it is something to at least keep an eye on. Trendline support from the lows established in October and January continues to hold fine and the weekly chart (not pictured) is simply testing its 20-week EMA. So I don't see this as a bearish development on its own.

Sector/Industry Focus

Footwear ($DJUSFT) got a big lift from Nike (NKE) when it reported its earnings last week and I expect we'll see continuing leadership from this consumer discretionary group:

The relative downtrend breakout back to the upside is quite apparent and the absolute breakout was evident as well. The breakaway gap has likely begun another solid advance for footwear stocks.

ChartLists/Strategies

More and more growth stocks are seeing their prior uptrends resume, so let's stay focused on a few more of these names:

AMD:

AMD was a very frustrating trade while its PPO was mired in mostly negative territory, but there's no question in my mind that we've now seen a bottom form and AMD is back on its way up. Rising 20-day EMAs always provide the best entry point from a reward-to-risk perspective, but the problem is we never know when we might see one.

MGM:

I like false breakouts, followed by a test of the rising 20-day EMA as it presents, in my opinion, one of the best reward-to-risk opportunities for entry. If the 20-day EMA fails to hold as support, you can exit with limited risk. If, however, this is a final opportunity for entry into an uptrending stock, the reward can be significant.

ORLY:

There's no guarantee this is a cup with a handle to follow, but I'd have some patience here and see if it pulls back near-term. If so, that would be a handle and typically a great entry point into a bullish pattern.

Earnings Reports

Here are the key earnings reports for the next two days, featuring stocks with market caps of more than $10 billion. I also include a few select companies with market caps below $10 billion. Finally, any portfolio stocks that will be reporting results are highlighted in BOLD. If you decide to hold a stock into earnings, please understand the significant short-term risk that you are taking. Please be sure to check for earnings dates for any companies you own or are considering owning.

Tuesday, June 29:

FDS, AVAV, NG, POWW

Wednesday, June 30:

MU, STZ, GIS, SJR, BBBY, SCHN

Economic Reports

April Case-Shiller home price index: +1.6% (actual) vs. +1.2% (estimate)

April FHFA house price index: +1.8% (actual) vs. +1.2% (estimate)

June consumer confidence: 127.3 (actual) vs. 119.0 (estimate)

Happy trading!

Tom