EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Thursday, January 18, 2024

Model ETF Portfolio DRAFT

I'm currently preparing for the Model ETF Portfolio Draft, which will begin at 5:30pm ET. Barring something unforeseen, it appears our Model ETF Portfolio will outperform the S&P 500 for the quarter October 19, 2023 through January 19, 2023.

WE ARE CLOSING OUT OUR MODEL ETF PORTFOLIO AS OF TODAY'S CLOSING PRICES.

This is one day early as we normally exit on the 19th, but the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100) touched its all-time high of 412.92 earlier today and backed away. We actually set a new all-time high on the QQQ with today's high of 412.99. But given max pain, which suggests we could see lower prices the next few days, and the fact that the most bullish historical period of the year (October 27 close to January 18 close) ends later today, I'd rather be safe than sorry and hold onto the gains from what's been an outstanding quarter. Prior to today, our Model ETF Portfolio had gained 12.00%, beating our benchmark S&P 500, which gained 10.78% over the same period.

Brief Market Update

The final two hours on the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) will certainly be interesting. Do we rally and close at an all-time high? Do we sell off and close at or near our low of the day? Closing weak is something we haven't seen much of on the NDX. I'll give you 2 charts to consider:

NDX - Daily chart:

NDX - Intraday chart:

There are several possibilities short-term and I honestly am not sure which way we head. Let's see how we finish. I do want to remind everyone that I remain VERY BULLISH long-term and believe we're maybe in the 5th inning of a strong secular bull market. We do run into short-term difficulties from time to time, however, and it'll be interesting to see how the stock market copes with the loss of its strongest seasonal period of year, max pain, and not-so great divergences.

Hopefully, I'll see you at 5:30pm ET for our latest Model ETF Portfolio Draft!

Happy trading!

Tom