EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Thursday, October 17, 2024

Model ETF Portfolio Draft

Well, it's that time of the quarter again. Later today, we'll be announcing the ETFs that will comprise our Model ETF Portfolio for the next 90 days. Barring a big drop relative to the S&P 500 in the next 24 hours, our current Model ETF Portfolio will beat the S&P 500 for the 9th time in 16 quarters since creating this portfolio in October 2020.

Today's event will begin promptly at 5:30pm ET. Room instructions have been sent out separately. I hope to see you there, but if you can't make it, no worries. We record all of our events and the recording should be available later this evening or sometime early on Friday.

Brief Market Update

Our major indices are mostly higher, but we're well off earlier highs and, in the case of the NASDAQ 100, it's significantly off its earlier high. The QQQ has fallen back multiple times today to the 491.50 level and it's held each time. Failure to hold it in the waning minutes, however, could give way to a loss on the session.

Stronger-than-expected retail sales, combined with a drop in initial jobless claims, sent stocks higher, but bonds lower. The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX), which moves 100% inversely to its price, jumped 8 basis points to 4.10%. I'm keeping my eye on 4.15% as a break above that level could reverse the downtrend in the TNX that began in April 2024. We've already seen a golden cross, where the short-term moving average (20-day EMA) crosses above the longer-term moving average (50-day SMA).

Gold ($GOLD, +0.60%) jumped above 2700 for the first time in history today. Other commodities were mixed, though crude oil ($WTIC, +0.54%) moved back closer to $71 per barrel.

The Travelers Companies (TRV, +8.96%) blew away earnings estimates, $5.24 vs. $3.79 and shares exploded today. Most companies continue to report stronger-than-expected results. Netflix (NFLX, -1.85%) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG, -0.71%) report earnings after the bell today.

Happy trading!

Tom