EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update and End of FLASH SALE - Wednesday, February 19, 2025
REMINDER: We will enter into our portfolio stocks at today's close. That means our entry will be at 3:59:59pm ET, not Thursday morning at the opening bell. It's quite possible that we still could see short-term selling, given all the warning signs we've discussed. Entering into portfolio stocks is an individual member decision. We are not Registered Investment Advisors and are not providing any recommendations to buy or sell any securities. Please consult your own financial advisor before you make any purchase or sale of securities.
FLASH SALE ends today
Our 48-hour FLASH SALE will come to an end today, and in a little over 7.5 hours. If you are a current trial member and sign up for an annual membership using the FLASH SALE, your 12-month extension will be added to the end of your trial period. In other words, you'll essentially receive 13 months for the price of 12. The FLASH SALE provides a $200 discount off of our normal annual membership, so please take advantage of these savings. Existing members should also consider this FLASH SALE if you're nearing the end of your current annual membership.
CLICK HERE to cash in on the $200 savings!
Market Update
Not much has changed really. Yes, we've made another new all-time high, but it's come with very little excitement. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high today of 6147.43 and the NASDAQ 100 set a new all-time high as well at 22222.61. Still waiting to reach its all-time high is the Dow Jones, which is flat today and still shows its all-time high at 45073.63 from December 4, 2024.
Small and mid caps remain a problem, with both lagging once again today. They continue to take a back seat as the short-term focus remains on the "potential" of another rise in inflation. I believe stock market participants have to once again begin planning for the next interest rate cut before we see meaningful relative strength in small and mid caps - unfortunately.
Growth (IWF, -0.02%) vs. value (IWD, +0.31%) isn't really working out again today, underscoring the lack of "risk-on" support that would be ideal. Sector strength is concentrated in defensive areas as well, with health care (XLV, +1.24%), consumer staples (XLP, +0.75%), energy (XLE, +0.67%), and real estate (XLRE, +0.38%) among today's leaders. Meanwhile, 3 sectors are lower on the session, including consumer discretionary (XLY, -0.20%) and technology (XLK, -0.06%).
It's not a horrible day, it's just not a great day.
Volatility ($VIX, -0.78%) continues to drift a bit lower, though it remains elevated by secular bull market standards. During our best secular bull market advances, the VIX usually resides below 13. There's still some work to be done to drive the VIX to that level.
So I'm mostly sitting on my hands, recognizing that it's simply too risky to jump on the long side, especially with options expiring this Friday. Weakness around monthly options expiration can last deep into the week following expiration as well.
I'll be back tomorrow with another look at our major indices and reporting on any new technical developments.
Happy trading!
Tom