EB Daily Market Report - Friday, February 28, 2025

Dear Members.

The month of February is coming to a close and both the bulls and bears have positive developments to point to. For the bulls, less than two weeks ago the S&P hit an all time high. For the bears, they've managed to wipe out all of the gains from the first two months of the year in a fairly short period of time.

While both the bulls and bears can make their respective cases, what matters most is what might happen next? Virtually all of the most important companies have now reported earnings with mixed results so traders will be looking for any clues as to where the market might be headed. This will include key economic reports, especially those that measure inflation, along with next week's jobs report that might help traders get a handle on the state of the economy.

Government bond yields continue to fall with the closely watched 10 year down over 50 basis points the past six weeks. That's certainly telling us something, very possibly that we could see some economic weakness ahead.

Whatever the case, we've certainly gone from buy the dips to sell on any rallies and today's close might give us an idea if we've seen a near term bottom or if we might see more selling. The NASDAQ has been hit the hardest and in fact today neared its 200 day moving average for the first time since August of last year. So we should keep an eye on that level, currently at 18,357. On the S&P we should keep an eye on today's low of 5842 to see if that holds. If not, expect more selling. If the bulls are able to hold the line, then 6000 will be the level that needs to be cleared if they hope to take the market higher.

I want to wish everyone a restful weekend and Tom will be back with his Weekly Market Report on Monday.

At your service,

John Hopkins