EB Daily Market Report - Friday, April 4, 2025

Dear Members.

The market continues in its downward spiral in spite of a solid jobs report this morning, focusing more on what the impact of recently announced tariffs might be.

On the heels of yesterday's selling we're getting more of the same with all of the major indexes significantly lower. Now the question becomes; have we seen a near term bottom? A few things to consider.

First, you have to go back to August of last year to see a Vix higher than it was today as traders try to figure out what lies ahead. Next, at its low today, the S&P - almost to the penny - matched last August's low of 5119. Next, at last night's close the $CPCE (put/call ratio) closed above 1% for the first time since April, 2024. Next, the RSI on the S&P is now at 24, a level that historically has resulted in some type of market bounce.

All of these signals combined make it compelling to say we've hit a near term bottom. But it's very difficult to get involved on this pullback with so much uncertainty in the air. Nonetheless, if you are willing to take on some risk, this might be the time to consider doing so knowing that if today's low just below 5119 fails to hold we are likely to see some more selling.

Tom will be back with his Weekly Market Report on Monday.

At your service,

John Hopkins