EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Executive Summary
- Futures were relatively flat overnight and there's been little volatility throughout today's action
- Technology (XLK, +0.89%) is leading today's action, which is nice, especially after seeing the aggressive sectors perform so poorly yesterday on a relative basis
- The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down another 4 basis points, adding to this week's decline
- Most commodities are higher, with gold ($GOLD) jumping another 0.6% to $3245 per ounce
- Semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +0.90%) are helping technology move higher, as NVIDIA Corp (NVDA, +1.40%) shows leadership
- Banks ($DJUSBK, +1.12%) are performing well today, which is good since there'll be plenty of bank earnings reports out this week and next
- Bank of America (BAC, +3.83%) is leading banks higher after posting better-than-expected quarterly revenues and earnings before the bell today
- Palantir (PLTR, +6.26%) is the top-performing company in the S&P 500 today
Market Outlook
For now, I'm just watching to see if we can negotiate key price resistance at 5521 on the S&P 500:
This is the bears' opportunity to regain control of the action. If they cannot and we're able to move back above short-term resistance, the odds increase that our recent low will be our ultimate low. We've seen failure at the declining 20-day EMA on 3 of the last 5 days, which is bearish thus far. But....we've also printed higher lows every day for the past 6, which is bullish. Which side will blink first?
Sectors/Industries
Let's review the latest growth vs. value ratios:
There are mixed signals here as well. The AD line is quite bullish, but the XLY:XLP ratio is approaching a new low. Keep in mind, however, that the INTRADAY XLY:XLP ratio from our Weekly Market Report has shown tremendous improvement, so this decline near a new low could be nothing more than manipulation, especially if the S&P 500 is able to clear 5521 at some point.
The bottom panel should be watched closely. If the IWF:IWD ratio (large cap growth vs. large cap value) can clear those 3 red arrows and break to a 5-6 week relative high, that would certainly add more bullishness to the current environment.
There's still plenty of work ahead.
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
Keeping individual stock trades to a minimum probably remains a solid idea, until we see further improvement in technical conditions.
Upcoming Earnings
Quarterly earnings reports will begin accelerating quite rapidly beginning next week. Two big earnings reports this week that I'll be watching closely will be American Express (AXP) on Thursday morning and Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday afternoon.
Economic Reports
April empire state manufacturing index: -8.1 (actual) vs. -10.0 (estimate)
Happy trading!
Tom