EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Max Pain Event

Our June Max Pain event will be held today at 5:00pm ET. Separate room instructions have been mailed to all members.

For those who cannot attend live, the event will be recorded and the recording will be made available by later this evening or tomorrow morning.

Market Update

All of our major indices are lower, mostly in the 0.5%-0.6% range as of this writing. The Fed began its 2-day meeting this morning and its policy statement will be released tomorrow afternoon at 2:00pm ET. No change is expected in interest rates. However, market participants will be watching closely to see if any wording changes might affect the timing of future interest rate moves.

Crude oil prices ($WTIC, +3.71%) have jumped back above $74 per barrel, the highest level we've seen since January 2025. Over the past few years, there's been quite a bit of support on crude oil in the $65-$70 range. This current push through $70 certainly makes the crude chart much more bullish - at least for now.

The Volatility Index ($VIX, +13.50%) is surging again, this time to 21.70 and we all know what a high and rising VIX can accompany - a rapidly-declining stock market. I'm not expecting any kind of massive selloff like we saw at the beginning of April, but I never (or extremely rarely) say never. There are always unforeseen circumstances that can trigger a tsunami of selling. Middle East tensions are heated and any escalation there could certainly cause assets to move much more defensively, even if it's only for the very near-term.

We should continue to expect more sideways action as we push through the end of Q2. I remain very bullish, but I recognize there are plenty of short-term issues the market is dealing with.

Happy trading!

Tom