EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Tom Bowley - June 24, 2025

Executive Summary

Futures were higher overnight after a strong session to kick off the week
Leadership is coming from growth areas of the market, a bullish development, especially as our major indices set or test all-time highs
The NASDAQ 100's ($NDX, +1.39%) all-time high close of 22,175.60 is being tested today
The S&P 500 ($SPX, +0.97%) is within 1% of its all-time
Technology (XLK, +1.69%) is trading at its all-time high and it represents over 31% of the S&P 500's weighting
Semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +2.59%) is showing strength in technology and that's the EXACT group that we're looking for to show strength
Investment services ($DJUSSB, +1.71%) are adding to a fresh breakout and helping to lead financials (XLF, +1.11%), the second-best-performing sector today
Commodities are mixed as gold ($GOLD, -1.97%) and silver ($SILVER, -1.51%) retreat; crude oil ($WTIC, -5.11%) remains under big selling pressure, falling below $65 per barrel
The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) falls 2 basis points to 4.30% to hit its lowest yield in 6 weeks, despite the Fed saying it can wait to cut the fed funds rate
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN, +9.68%) makes another big jump to lead all S&P 500 companies higher on the session

Market Outlook

The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is on the doorstep to a big breakout above the February 2025 all-time high:

The really good news is that technology (XLK) represents over 50% of the NDX and it is already making its all-time high breakout today:

The small cap IWM has continued to hold onto major support at its rising 20-day EMA. The bottoming reverse head & shoulders pattern measuring to 249, which I've spoken about previously, remains in play. Personally, I continue to overweight the IWM and TNA (3x leverage on the IWM) and am willing to let it ride for now. A break above 215-216 price resistance on the IWM is what we want to see next.

Sectors/Industries

The breakouts and strengthening charts are mounting and suggesting we're on the verge of major breakouts everywhere. This secular bull market is alive and kicking and it's quite possible that the bullishness gets turned up a notch as earnings season awaits.

First, let's check out investment services ($DJUSSB):

Next, computer services ($DJUSDV):

How about electronic equipment ($DJUSAI)?

The list just goes on and on. Strong growth areas. Strong AD lines. There are simply too many strong areas in the market for the bears to stop.

ChartLists and Trading Strategies

In addition to a large number of stocks breaking out and setting new 52-week highs, don't forget about recent leaders that surged following earnings, only to pull back and find key gap support to rally off of. A stock like Insulet Corp (PODD) comes to mind:

Riding PODD from 330 down into the 290s would have been little fun, but gap support provides an excellent entry opportunity - with little downside risk.

One software stock that I'm watching very closely right now for a reversal is Duolingo (DUOL), which surged following earnings and reached a high of 544.93. It's since fallen back and out of favor and is testing a critical gap support zone. Does it bounce at the top of gap support? Maybe the bottom of gap support?

I don't know where it bottoms, but when it does, I'm going to be ready to pounce! 436.93 is the top of gap support. If DUOL rallies back above that number today, I'll take a long position on DUOL with today's low being my intraday stop moving forward.

Upcoming Earnings

We now have our Upcoming Earnings ChartLists on our website, so be sure to check those out.

Economic Reports

April Case-Shiller home price index: -0.3% (actual) vs. -0.1% (prior)

April FHFA house price index: -0.4% (actual) vs. -0.1% (prior)

June consumer confidence: 93.0 (actual) vs. 99.0 (estimate)

Happy trading!

Tom