EB Daily Market Report - Wednesday, September 10, 2025
Executive Summary
Futures were mostly higher overnight, though there's been relative weakness in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today
- Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is pulling back a bit from earlier highs, but the crypto does seem to be trending higher again after recent consolidation
- Commodities are mostly higher, including crude oil ($WTIC, +1.84%), which has climbed back close to $64 per barrel
- The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down 3 basis points and moving closer and closer to 4.00%; bond investors no longer seem to be worried about inflation, paving the way to an interest rate cut next week
- Oracle (ORCL, +36.8%) is soaring after management indicated that AI revenues would hit $144 billion by 2030
- The ORCL forecast has lifted many AI-related stocks, though the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX, -0.06%) has retreated after nearing its August 13th, all-time high
- Synopsis (SNPS, -35.7%) has taken a huge hit today after falling well short of its EPS estimate, $3.39 vs. $3.84
Market Outlook
This is going to be very quick today as I'm reporting from the StockCharts.com headquarters in Redmond, WA. I will be recording my mid-week weekly recap video from the StockCharts.com studio later today, which will be uploaded to YouTube on Thursday, so be sure to check that out.
One thing I do want to mention is that the August PPI came out this morning and it was negative at -0.1% and well below the estimate of +0.3%. Also, the surprising +0.9% PPI that was reported last month was revised a bit lower to +0.7%. I believe this news, along with a reasonable CPI report number tomorrow, will result in an interest-rate cut by the Fed next Wednesday.
I am thinking that it's quite possible that we could see a "buy on rumor, sell on news" type of reaction to a rate cut next week. This is not going to be a surprise to most market participants. Stocks have been bid up in anticipation of a rate cut and I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of selling event on the news of the actual rate cut. Check out the historical tendencies in the section below. It definitely makes sense to at least be aware of these tendencies and what we might see.
I will again emphasize that I am BULLISH. My S&P 500 forecast back in early January was 7000. I still believe we're on track to see 7000 before year end. So when I discuss possible weakness or pullbacks, it's mostly due to historical tendency concerns.
Sectors/Industries
Remember that we're in September and that the annualized return this month can be broken down by first half and second half of the month. The difference in performance is staggering, so don't be put to sleep by the recent all-time highs. The historically-weak period of September still lies directly in front of us:
September 1-16: +7.97%
September 17-30: -25.63%
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
It's no wonder why so many people struggle to understand how the stock market works. Take two earnings reports from last night as a perfect example:
ORCL:
ORCL is absolutely flying today after reporting quarterly revenues that fell shy of Wall Street estimates and a quarterly EPS number that simply matched estimates. Currently, ORCL is up big, though it is well off its earlier high:
Now here's the irony of this massive move. ORCL is flying high, because of its 2030 forecast, expecting AI to increase its revenues to $144 billion. But here's my question, ORCL management. You just missed your revenue forecast for the latest quarter, why should I trust that your 5-year revenue forecast?
Hhhhhmmmm...
RBRK:
RBRK crushed its revenue and EPS estimate after the bell yesterday and check out the reaction to this very solid report:
That's quite a poor reaction, especially when you consider that RBRK raised its revenue and EPS guidance for next quarter significantly.
I believe that buying RBRK currently poses considerably less risk than buying ORCL. Just my opinion.
Upcoming Earnings
Earnings have slowed down, so we're no longer tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists. We will resume those ChartLists when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October.
Economic Reports
August PPI: -0.1% (actual) vs. +0.3% (estimate)
August Core PPI: -0.1% (actual) vs. +0.3% (estimate)
July wholesale inventories: +0.1% (actual) vs. +0.2% (estimate)
Happy trading!
Tom