EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Thursday, September 11, 2025
I am wrapping up my one-week trip out to StockCharts.com today and I'll be traveling back home on Friday. Just as a reminder, ChartLists will not be updated this weekend. I'll update all of those next weekend. I do plan to do the EB Weekly Portfolio Report and also provide a Weekly Market Recap video this weekend, since neither were provided last week. Our schedule should be totally back on track come Monday. Thank you for your patience and understanding as we've had excellent discussions this week that will improve our member experience later this year and beyond. More details on that to come.
As for the market today, the August CPI report came in slightly above expectations at +0.4% vs. +0.3%. However, if we strip out food and energy, the "Core" CPI rose +0.3% as expected. The lack of a surge in core inflation is an indication that we're very likely going to see a rate cut next week when the Fed meets. Furthermore, initial jobless claims rose significantly last week, coming in at 263,000 vs. an expected 234,000 level. The combination of benign inflation and weakening economic conditions all but guarantees that Fed Chief Powell will FINALLY resume the Fed's rate-cutting campaign from 2024.
Our major indices have reacted as you might suspect - by rising across the board. The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, +1.43%) is leading the charge today, even pushing slightly above its all-time high close of 240.48 earlier today before pulling back some. At last check, it was trading at 239.82. In addition, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading above 46000 for the first time in its history, while both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have set new all-time highs today as well.
It's also a broad advance today with 10 of the 11 sectors trading higher, led by consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.90%). The only sector unable to muster gains today is energy (XLE, -0.18%), which is being dragged down by lower crude oil prices ($WTIC, -1.99%).I want to remind everyone once again of the seasonal performance of the S&P 500 during the month of September. My data goes back to 1950 and should NOT be construed as any sort of guarantee of lower prices ahead. This is simply an indication of upcoming bearish market tendencies.
S&P 500 annualized performance (since 1950):
- September 1-16: +7.97%
- September 17-30: -25.63%
Please keep in mind that while September historically has been a not-so-good month, the real historical weakness tends to hit during the second half of September, not the first half. I did a bit of research this morning and here is how the September 17 to 30 period has performed each year of the current secular bull market:
2013: -0.95%
2014: -1.34%
2015: -3.77%
2016: +1.36%
2017: +0.77%
2018: +0.31%
2019: -0.71%
2020: -0.66%
2021: -3.72%
2022: -7.43%
2023: -3.65%
2024: +2.30%
2025: ???
September 17 through 30 in 2024 was the best period of any since 2013, but the 3 September 17-30 periods prior to that were abysmal. We don't know what will happen in 2025, but we're likely to get a rate cut on Wednesday, September 17th. Will there be a sell on the news that fits like a glove during this upcoming bearish historical period? I don't know, but I'd suggest being somewhat cautious - whatever that means to everyone. I do not expect any type of major selloff, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we end the month of September lower than we are right now.
John Hopkins will provide everyone a brief market update on Friday while I'm traveling. I want to wish all of you a great weekend!
Happy trading!
Tom