EB Daily Market Report - Thursday, September 25, 2025

Executive Summary

• Futures were down overnight and our major indices gapped lower at the opening bell
• U.S. equities are mostly lower, while commodities are mostly higher
• Gold ($GOLD, +0.49%) is nearing $3800 per ounce again after a pullback on Wednesday
• Crude oil prices ($WTIC, +0.32%) have jumped above $65 per barrel, one day after closing above its 50-day SMA for the first time in nearly two months
• Energy (XLE, +0.62%) is the only sector in positive territory, led by higher crude oil
• Meanwhile, the other 10 sectors are lower, led by health care (XLV, -1.66%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -1.41%)
• The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) has jumped 3 basis points today after a much-stronger-than-expected final reading of Q2 GDP and lesser-than-expected initial jobless claims
• Electrical components ($DJUSEC, -2.05%) is weak today, but it has rallied off its earlier low; it could be printing its handle in the cup pattern highlighted on Tuesday
• Intel (INTC, +8.86%) is soaring again and leading the S&P 500 after it announced its seeking an investment from Apple, Inc (AAPL, +1.28%)

Market Outlook

For the first time since early September, the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100) is trending lower and beneath its 20-hour EMA. We've seen a bearish PPO crossover on the hourly chart and the 20-hour EMA has crossed below the 50-hour SMA:

The red arrows highlight all the failed tests of the declining 20-hour EMA. The first step to repair this hourly chart technically is for price action to comfortably clear this moving average. For now, the look remains short-term bearish.

I am using current market weakness to build my ETF holdings. I don't know how deep the selling will go, but I do not believe it'll be long lasting. Therefore, my strategy was to exit when the risks were increasing and to enter as prices fall.

Sectors/Industries

Gambling stocks ($DJUSCA) are weakening as the group trades beneath its now-declining 20-day EMA. As recent as late August, the DJUSCA was one of the hottest industry groups and trading near a 4-year high. That's changed quite a bit and now it's challenging key price support, established at its early-August low:

A close below 705 should be viewed as a very bearish development for gambling stocks. One positive here is the strong AD line, so if the DJUSCA sees an intraday breakdown, but a recovery on the close, a tradable bottom could be at hand.

ChartLists and Trading Strategies

I am avoiding adding any individual stocks currently, though 20-day EMA tests among high SCTR stocks on our ChartLists is not a bad strategy for those looking to add risk. Also, morning weakness among high SCTR stocks on our Strong AD ChartList (SADCL) makes sense for quick day trades.

Upcoming Earnings

We're not currently tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists as few companies report this time of the quarter. We will resume these ChartLists when Q3 earnings kick off in mid-October.

Economic Reports

Initial jobless claims: 218,000 (actual) vs. 238,000 (estimate)
Q2 GDP (final): 3.8% (actual) vs. 3.3% (estimate)
August durable goods: +2.9% (actual) vs. -0.5% (estimate)
August wholesale inventories: -0.2% (actual) vs. +0.1% (estimate)
August existing home sales: 4,000,000 (actual) vs. 3,950,000 (estimate)

Happy trading!
Tom