EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Well, the bearish month of September is coming to an end.  The really good news is that the S&P 500, a leading economic indicator, is just 17 points away from its all-time high close as we approach the end of September trading.  We're 116 points ABOVE where the S&P 500 closed the month of August.  That's nearly a 2% gain for September, which is one of the best Septembers in recent memory.

The bad news is that the U.S. government is on the verge of a shutdown.  If the Republicans and Democrats do not make a last-minute deal this evening, we'll have our first government shutdown in 6 years.

Crude oil prices ($WTIC, -1.43%) are continuing their downward reversal from Monday.  After briefly touching $66 per barrel to close out last week, crude oil today is trading at $62.50 per barrel, sending energy shares (XLE, -1.07%) lower to test their rising 20-day EMA.  

Another very weak area of trading today is gambling ($DJUSCA, -7.00%), which is taking a hit from increasing pressure from prediction markets.  Non-prediction companies in online gaming such as DraftKings (DKNG, -11.39%) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT, -9.98%) are leading the entire sector lower on the session.  Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD, +4.73%), which has partnered with prediction market company Kalshi, has been flying to the upside the past two sessions.

Small cap companies (IWM, +0.17%) were notably weak on an absolute and relative basis this morning, but are rallying into the close.

Happy trading!

Tom