EB Daily Market Report - Thursday, October 23, 2025

Executive Summary

• Futures were mixed overnight, but we've seen mostly positive action today
• Tesla (TSLA, +1.24%) reported very strong sales, but missed its EPS estimate; it opened weak, but has since recovered strongly
• Energy (XLE, +1.81%) continues to show leadership as crude oil prices ($WTIC, +5.40%) soar back above $61 per barrel
• Materials (XLB, +1.32%) and technology (XLK, +1.29%) are also strong, while consumer staples (XLP, -045%) lag
• Cryptocurrencies are bouncing back strongly today, though most remain beneath declining 20-day EMAs
• Gold ($GOLD, +2.21%) is also rebounding nicely after testing its 20-day EMA on Wednesday
• The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is up 4 basis points to 4.00%
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS, +13.30%) is leading the S&P 500 higher after it reported revenues and EPS 10% and 25% above consensus estimates, respectively

Market Outlook

No charts today, just a lot of chatter.

I've been discussing the increasing likelihood of an A-B-C corrective pattern to help unwind some of the overbought conditions after a significant 6-month rally off the April low. After the bell yesterday, Tesla (TSLA, +2.10%) reported earnings of .50 per share, falling shy of Wall Street expectations of .53 per share. They joined Netflix (NFLX) as two key NASDAQ 100 giants that missed earnings expectations.

The result? The NDX is once again trying to challenge its all-time high. The bulls are SO resilient and all of this helps us to explain why it's so frustrating to try to call a short-term selloff. The bulls will simply have none of it.

Now we haven't seen an all-time high breakout, so a period of selling ahead is certainly a possibility and with the Volatility Index ($VIX, -5.86%) still remaining above 17, it probably wouldn't take a whole lot of bad news to regenerate the selling episode from Wednesday or from the big down day on Friday, October 10th. But wow, it's still quite impressive to watch the bulls battle everything thrown their way.

All of this resiliency, by the way, fits into my longer-term bullish theme. Rates are coming down, both short-term and long-term. The unwinding of inflationary threats and the uncertain jobs picture almost certainly will lead to lower rates ahead, which will increase company valuations, in my opinion. There are two potential flies in the ointment for the bulls. First, we'd need to see a resurgence in inflation, which I personally believe is highly doubtful. The second would be further economic deterioration that, below the surface, is accelerating and could lead to a recession and big drop in corporate earnings. We all know that Fed Chief Powell has a long history of being late to every party and it's possible that the Fed waited too long to begin cutting the short-term fed funds rate. My problem with this theory is that Wall Street isn't buying into it.....at least not yet.

The stock market tends to be highly optimistic this time of year as everyone has a GREAT story about their business acceleration in 2026. Should Wall Street begin to sense economic problems ahead, we'll likely see massive rotation later in Q4 (similar to 2021) that would warn us of those potential problems.

Right now is not the time to worry about any of that as it probably will not even materialize. But I'll keep my eyes open.

Sectors/Industries

Next week starts a major surge in corporate earnings and many of the biggest, most influential companies in the world will be reporting their latest quarterly results. Here are just a few of the companies reporting each day in growth areas (or because of their size/economic impact) that you should be aware of:

Monday, October 27: CDNS, NXPI, CLS
Tuesday, October 28: V, UNH, BKNG
Wednesday, October 29: MSFT, GOOGL, META, CAT, NOW, SBUX
Thursday, October 30: AAPL, AMZN, LLY, MA, RBLX, NET
Friday, October 31: XOM, ABBV, CVX

Earnings remain quite strong. Just looking at companies with over a $10 billion market cap that have reported results this week, this is how many have beaten Wall Street earnings expectations vs. those that have missed:

Monday, October 20: 3 vs. 4
Tuesday, October 21: 26 vs. 3 (1 matched EPS expectation)
Wednesday, October 22: 31 vs. 9 (2 matched EPS expectations)
Thursday, October 23 (reported in pre-market today): 29 vs. 3 (1 matched EPS expectation)

To summarize for this week thus far, 89 companies with market caps over $10 billion have BEATEN Wall Street earnings expectations, while only 19 have missed and 4 have matched. Valuations are based on earnings and interest rates. Interest rates are coming down and earnings are going up. This isn't rocket science.

The long-term picture remains quite bright.

ChartLists and Trading Strategies

Trading stocks that meet our ChartList filters and are hitting key support on pullbacks like the rising 20-day EMA (or even the rising 20-week EMA on stocks with deeper corrections) still make a ton of sense. I tend to be much more conservative this week, simply because I'm aware of the bearish historical tendencies of the overall market, but that doesn't mean there aren't great trades setting up every day. It just comes down to how much risk you're willing to take, that's all.

I ran a scan of stocks on our Strong Earnings (SECL) and Raised Guidance (RGCL) ChartLists, looking for those stocks with SCTR's above 90 and successfully testing their respective 20-day EMAs today. Here were the stocks returned (in SCTR order):

AMRC, SEDG, REZI, DAVE, ANET, WKEY, BLZE, TSM, DDS, SANM, DOOO, AVAH, TPR

I also ran our Downtrend Reversal scan to catch any stocks that are showing a potential reversal off of a recent move lower. This too was run against the SECL and RGCL, but I ignored the SCTR score. I am listing them in SCTR order, even though I didn't filter using the SCTR score:

SSRM, HBM, IONQ, TSCO, CRCT

Upcoming Earnings

We have begun tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists for Q3 earnings. They are included on our website under ChartLists.

Economic Reports

Economic reports due out based on government data continue to be delayed, because of the U.S. government shutdown.

Happy trading!
Tom