EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, November 4, 2025
Executive Summary
- Futures turned lower overnight after a blistering-hot quarterly report from Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR, -9.12%)
- It was a "sell on the news" event as all of our major indices saw their futures move steadily lower right up until this morning's opening bell
- Both the S&P 500 ($SPX, -1.22%) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX, -1.96%) are seeing 20-day EMA tests, while the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM, -1.64%) is testing its 50-day SMA
- The Volatility Index ($VIX, +10.02%) is surging and threatening to close back above 19 for the first time in more than two weeks
- The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down 2 basis points to 4.08% after testing its key 50-day SMA yield resistance in recent sessions
- Technology (XLK, -2.60%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -1.69%) are leading the downside action today
- Semiconductors ($DJUSSC, -3.43%) are weighing on technology, though most other industry groups in the space are lower as well
- This is not a "sell everything" selloff, however, as financials (XLF, +0.41%) lead four sectors higher
- Cryptocurrencies, viewed as "risk on" investments, are down 5-10% nearly across the board
- Commodities are mostly lower on the session
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, -3.03%) is set to report its latest quarterly results after today's close
Market Outlook
Technology (XLK) has driven the stock market higher, so it only makes sense that when it finally sells off, it'll take the benchmark S&P 500 down with it. Today, it's selling off. Here's a chart showing the S&P 500, the XLK, and the XLK:$SPX relative strength:
Currently, there is no significant technical breakdown. It's nothing more than a typical case of TA 101 - broken price resistance becomes price support. The S&P 500 also is testing its rising 20-day EMA.
Sectors/Industries
Commercial vehicles & trucks ($DJUSHR) seem to be heating up just as November starts and this is a group that performs well historically this month. First, let's take a look at the absolute and relative breakouts in the group:
The huge move a week ago came after a strong quarterly report from Caterpillar (CAT), the group's bellwether stock. After this pullback, it might make sense to check out the group, especially CAT on a move closer to gap support, as it continues to show excellent relative strength.
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
I have updated the latest Seasonality ChartList (SEASCL), this time for stocks that have a history of performing well during the month of November. In addition to the 20 large cap stocks that like November, we've added a new small cap feature. On the November Seasonality ChartList, we have annotated 20 large cap stocks and 11 small cap stocks - all with a propensity to move higher over the next several weeks.
As an example of small cap seasonal strength, let's check out Installed Building Products (IBP), which earlier tested key gap support:
In the case of IBP, bullish seasonal patterns in November corroborate an entry into IBP as gap support is tested. This is how I like to use seasonality. It doesn't mean gap support will hold, but it gives me more confidence to place the trade.
Here's how the seasonality chart looks since IBP went public:
Upcoming Earnings
We have begun tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists for Q3 earnings. They are included on our website under ChartLists.
Economic Reports
Economic reports due out based on government data continue to be delayed, because of the U.S. government shutdown.
Happy trading!
Tom