EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Executive Summary
- Futures were mostly lower overnight, but the Dow Jones showed relative strength in futures and again during today's action
- The bond market is closed today in observance of Veterans Day, but U.S. equity markets remain open
- Technology (XLK, -0.79%) is the only sector showing significant weakness on today's session, as health care (XLV, +2.13%) leads
- Pharmas ($DJUSPR, +2.89%) and biotechs ($DJUSBT, +2.27%) are showing particular strength
- Semiconductors ($DJUSSC, -2..12%) are pausing today, contributing to the relative weakness in tech
- Cryptocurrencies are lower after recent strength; XRP is lower by 5.28%
- Crude oil ($WTIC, +1.48%) have moved back above $61 per barrel, aiding energy shares (XLE, +1.86%)
- Strength in Merck (MRK, +4.18%), Nike (NKE, +4.03%), and Amgen (AMGN, +3.51%); the latter is breaking to an all-time high
Market Outlook
There are a lot of folks that are extremely bearish on U.S. equities, but I'm not one of them. I do think we need to lower the bar of expectations as move forward, particularly on the S&P 500, because we've reached the top of our 16-year secular bull market channel and not too many great things happen once we reach this channel top:
We have seen corrections and cyclical bear markets begin from such levels, however. I don't see anything to suggest we're entering one of those corrections/bear markets right now, but it will be something that I'll monitor over the next several weeks to months.
The channels on both the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 show much more upside room. It could simply be a case of other major indices outperforming the S&P 500 into year end and in 2026. There'll be more on this topic as we move towards MarketVision 2026 in early January.
Sectors/Industries
I've discussed on multiple occasions how the financial sector (XLF) loves the month of November. As a reminder, here's how the XLF has performed by calendar month over the past 13 years (during this secular bull market advance):
No other month comes close to November as far as XLF performance goes. And on the following price chart, you can see XLF gaining ground in November 2025 on both an absolute and relative basis (blue circles).....again:
A close back above 53.50 on the XLF would be very bullish. The 53.25-53.50 zone had proven to be solid support in September and early October, until that support was lost. That same zone has now proven to be solid price resistance, so clearing it would be quite bullish technically.
Also, the red arrow marks PPO centerline resistance. In order for bullish momentum to accelerate in this group, we'll need to see that bullish PPO centerline crossover confirm the price breakout.
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
After earnings last night and this morning, we have two stocks heading in different directions. CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) is down over 13% as it speeds towards major price support in the mid 80s:
I'd watch those 3 red circles. If CRWV is turn its fortunes around, support needs to hold on all 3 lines. I'd feel a bit more bullish if the AD line was showing some improvement on this selling episode, but it's not. You can also see that we've seen filled candles 7 of the last 9 trading days, suggesting distribution, not accumulation. Keep in mind that software ($DJUSSW) is trying to hold onto support as a group, and CRWV has been one of the worst performers in the space of late. If the group breaks down, CRWV could be in for further price deterioration.
Next up, and a completely different story, is RealReal, Inc. (REAL), which is soaring after its quarterly earnings report:
Sometimes the stock market makes absolutely zero sense. CRWV crushed its revenue and EPS estimates, with the latter coming in at -0.08 actual vs. -0.38 estimate. Meanwhile, here's the "REAL" kicker. REAL missed its earnings estimate by a mile, -0.49 vs. -0.14 and it's flying higher by 33%!
Trust me, I shake my head too sometimes.
Upcoming Earnings
We are tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists for Q3 earnings. They are included on our website under ChartLists. Earnings season is winding down, but we'll continue to prepare these ChartLists for the next 2-3 weeks.
Economic Reports
Economic reports due out based on government data continue to be delayed, because of the U.S. government shutdown. We could see this change very soon, however, as the Senate has passed a temporary spending bill and we're now waiting on a House vote. If passed there, it moves to the White House for President Trump to sign it into law. I don't know how long it will take to begin receiving economic reports on a regular basis, but the obvious first step is to reopen the government.
Happy trading!
Tom