EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Thursday, November 13, 2025

Well, the weakness today is arguing for a period of consolidation rather than a return to the secular bull market advance and higher prices. I like to watch the price action relative to the 20-day EMA and when price action moves above and below that key moving average multiple times, it begins to look much more like a period of consolidation. Based on this recent back-and-forth action, I'd now view two key levels as very critical support and I'll use the S&P 500 as the example. First, the recent price support range typically holds during a period of consolidation, so I'd look to the low last Friday and the previous low one month earlier:

The range from 6550-6625 is the key short-term price support range, in my opinion. Now there's still a reasonable chance that the S&P 500 rallies this afternoon and holds onto 20-day EMA support. That would obviously be the preference of the bulls hoping to see higher prices near-term.

Failure to hold the 20-day EMA and then failure to hold the price support range shown above would likely result in the 20-week EMA being tested for the first time during this rally off the April low:

The 20-week EMA currently resides at 6519 and it's rising every day. Therefore, it's quite possible that this 20-week EMA moves up to further support the price support range of 6550-6625 noted above.

All of this should help to provide the S&P 500 excellent support on any further short-term weakness. As I've said many times before, my signals are NOT pointing to a significant decline (meaning 10% to 20%, or more). That doesn't guarantee us that we won't see that type of decline, it simply tells me that the RISK of that type of decline is minimal, in my view.

From a sector perspective, health care (XLV, +1.04%) and energy (XLE, +0.95%) are again having nice days, while key growth areas like technology (XLK, -1.83%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -1.68%) lag.

Happy trading!
Tom