EB Daily Market Report - Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Executive Summary
- Futures pointed slightly higher prior to the opening bell and that's exactly where we opened
- Cryptocurrencies remain under intense selling pressure with $XRPUSD and $ETHUSD down 9.13% and 8.31%, respectively
- Bitcoin ($BTCUSD, -4.66%) is currently trading at 88,530
- Commodities are mixed, with crude oil prices ($WTIC, -2.07%) tumbling back below $60 per barrel
- The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is up 1 basis point to 4.13%
- Technology (XLK, +0.70%) is showing relative strength and leading all sectors today
- Software ($DJUSSW, -1.08%) remains a big problem for the tech sector, though
- Energy (XLE, -1.48%) is seeing profit taking with the drop in crude oil prices
- NVIDIA Corp (NVDA, +2.64%) reports its quarterly results after the closing bell today and will likely direct overall market action in the near-term as it's the largest and most influential company in the world
Market Outlook
We know semiconductors ($DJUSSC) represent one of the most influential industry groups in terms of market capitalization and quarterly reports don't get any bigger than NVDA, one of the group's major component stocks. Below is the current technical picture of the DJUSSC, on a weekly basis, to give you a sense of what would be worrisome in terms of a technical breakdown:
Semiconductors are leaders and have helped to carry our major indices to record highs in 2025. I don't really see any major reversals on this longer-term weekly chart. The green arrow highlights the key 20-week EMA support. Should the group lose its 20-week EMA support, then we'd need to consider further downside. Of course, further downside here would almost assuredly result in a stumbling S&P 500 as semiconductors represent roughly 15% of that benchmark index. Software is the 2nd largest industry group in the S&P 500 and it's already weighing on the index with its recent breakdown. Adding a weakening semiconductor group would make life very difficult for the bulls. That's why the reaction to NVDA's report this afternoon and the key levels of support on the DJUSSC chart matter.
Sectors/Industries
In addition to semiconductors and software, technology has also been carried higher by two other very strong industry groups - electronic equipment ($DJUSAI) and electrical components & equipment ($DJUSEC). We've seen varying degrees of weakness on both an absolute and relative basis in these two areas, so it'll be worth keeping an eye on both of these charts as well.
DJUSEC:
Watch relative support in the bottom panel and the two key gap support levels if selling accelerates again. It's important for these support levels to hold and for the group to maintain its relative strength as momentum (PPO) has turned negative (red circle).
DJUSAI:
This area looks a bit stronger as momentum remains bullish and above the PPO centerline (blue arrow). Relative strength is clearly stronger as well. So long as gap/price support holds, I would be expecting another rally ahead.
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
I'm interested in seeing how NVDA reports and how Wall Street reacts before considering short-term trades. Based on my discussion at last night's Max Pain session, I am trading TTD, CRWV, and COIN, but looking only for short-term strength. These should be viewed as aggressive trades and, if you're not familiar with Max Pain, then I'd encourage you to listen in to our recording from yesterday afternoon.
Upcoming Earnings
We are tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists for Q3 earnings. They are included on our website under ChartLists. Earnings season is winding down, but we'll continue to prepare these ChartLists for the next week or two.
Economic Reports
Many economic reports will be delayed for a period of time as the government catches up on data. According to marketwatch.com, September nonfarm payrolls will be released tomorrow morning.
Happy trading!
Tom