EB Daily Market Report - Thursday, November 20, 2025
Executive Summary
- Futures were very strong overnight after NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) delivered strong quarterly results
- Delayed September nonfarm payrolls were released as well, indicating that jobs came in above consensus estimates
- The combination of these two factors sent stocks soaring at the opening bell, though buying exhausted itself after an hour
- Our major indices reversed and key support levels from October 10th are being tested this afternoon - more on this below
- Most cryptocurrencies are under further pressure today, though the percentage losses have slowed
- Commodities are lower across the board, with crude oil ($WTIC, -0.44%) slumping to $59 per barrel
- The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is down 3 basis points to 4.10%, despite the unexpected strength in jobs
- Defensive sectors are holding up much better today as consumer staples (XLP, +0.73%) and real estate (XLRE, +0.10%) are the only sectors gaining ground
- Technology (XLK, -2.40%) and industrials (XLI, -1.32%) are hardest hit, with the XLK reversing from a high of 288.51 to a low of 273.21
- NVDA was up 5-6% and is now down 2.4% in a major reversal within its wide trading range from 164 to 208
Market Outlook
In the very near-term, I'm watching support on the following major indices:
S&P 500 ($SPX):
NASDAQ 100 ($NDX):
Russell 2000 (IWM):
As of 3:00pm ET, our major indices were holding onto key support levels shown above. But will they hold at 4:00pm ET? That's an important question to be answered in the next hour. A VIX move into the upper 20s and a hold of major price support can most certainly mark an important bottom. A breakdown can result in a very swift decline with the VIX this high. All I can say is that it's a dangerous short-term environment for both longs and shorts.
Sectors/Industries
We are witnessing today what can happen in a market with a Volatility Index ($VIX) above 20 and rapidly rising. There seems to be little or no support for stocks. Selling can accelerate extremely quickly in this type of volatile environment, which is why - no matter what I think about the long-term prospects of the market - I tend to remain in cash when the VIX moves above 20. My experience, from a trading perspective, is that trading capital can evaporate very quickly and I simply don't want to take on the added risk of this environment. Check out the VIX:
I don't know where the market finishes today, but a breakdown beneath the key support identified above in the Market Outlook, along with a VIX well into the mid and upper 20s, could spell a very quick and painful selloff. The obvious question is, "does the VIX top just below 30 like it has in some prior selloffs or does the VIX break through 30?" If it's the latter, it won't be pretty.
Caution is suggested, from a short-term trading perspective. I believe this selling will be short-lived. I don't see any of my signals pointing to a lengthy decline.
ChartLists and Trading Strategies
I have no interest in looking for trading candidates in this type of volatile market environment. I stay put in cash. That's just my trading style.
Upcoming Earnings
We are tracking the daily Upcoming Earnings and the Weekly Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartLists for Q3 earnings. They are included on our website under ChartLists. Earnings season is winding down, but we'll continue to prepare these ChartLists for the next week or two.
Economic Reports
The delayed September nonfarm payrolls came in at 119,000 vs. 50,000 consensus estimate. The September unemployment rate jumped to 4.4%, ahead of the 4.3% expected.
Happy trading!
Tom