EB Daily Market Report - Friday, December 12, 2025

Dear Members.

In speaking with Tom Bowley yesterday, he brought it to my attention that large cap growth vs large cap value ratio hit a 3 1/2 month low as traders continued to unload what they are now seeing as higher risk assets. And we can see today that the overall market, including the recently loved blue chip stocks, are down sharply.

You can see that fear has picked up with the VIX spiking 20%. And in spite of the Fed's recent decision to lower rates and begin a buying spree in treasuries, bond yields have spiked, not exactly what traders had hoped for.

Right now the S&P is sitting near its 20 day moving average, currently at 6810. Unless that holds, we could see a test of the 50 day, currently at 6761. I should point out that the last time the S&P moved below both of these important techincal levels, selling picked up as the S&P challenged the 6500 level.

I should also point out that with the exception of that move lower in mid November, the S&P had not fallen below its 50 day in any meaningful way since April. So you can see the why the bulls are hoping the 50 day holds once again.

It might be too early to count the bulls out here; December certainly favors longs. However, as Tom has been pointing out to members recently, he's seeing signs that are pointing to remaining cautious.

Tom will be back with his Weekly Market Report on Monday.

At your service,

John Hopkins