EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Wednesday, January 14, 2026

The good news today is that we're seeing money rotating back into cryptocurrencies as etherium ($ETHUSD, +5.07%) and bitcoin ($BTCUSD, +3.11%) lead this asset class and clear important short-term hurdles.  Bitcoin had struggled clearing 95,000 for the past two months, but did so yesterday.  Today, bitcoin is adding to the breakout, tacking on another 1.95% to trade above 97,000. 

Etherium hasn't cleared that same 2-month hurdle, which resides near 3400, but it has started this week on a very bullish note, rising from just above 3000 to today's intraday high of 3403.  A strong finish would be bullish for etherium.

Unfortunately, I don't have the same bullish news for U.S. stocks, which stumbled out of the gate this morning and have struggled to find a bid.  Earlier, the S&P 500 fell beneath its 20-day EMA near 6900, but at last check, has rallied back and currently trades just above it at 6904.  Of course, that could change as we head into the final hour of trading.

It's important to note that the Volatility Index ($VIX, +8.45%) has been surging higher of late.  In the latter part of December, the VIX had tumbled to a low of 13.38, a very bullish development for U.S. stocks.  That resulted in a new all-time highs on the S&P 500 in 2026.  The recent spike in the VIX, however, is an indication that market makers are potentially preparing for weakness ahead as they charge higher premiums on short-term S&P options.  The VIX has been rising over the past few weeks, and now we see weakness starting to kick in on our major indices.

I also want to mention that the most bullish period of the year (October 27th close to January 18th close) is nearing its end.  The S&P 500 is higher from its October 27, 2025 close by roughly 0.5%, which is paltry compared to historical norms.  As I discussed at MarketVision 2026, this places the current 10/28-1/18 period's performance squarely in the middle of the bearish 4th quartile of 10/28-1/18 performances since 1950.  Over the past 75 years, the 10/28 to 1/18 period has seen the S&P 500 fall just 9 times and, in most of those cases, they foreshadowed very poor market years ahead.  Barring a big surge in U.S. equities over the next two days, it's likely we'll find this latest 10/28 to 1/18 period amongst some of the worst years in history - not exactly a bullish historical signal for 2026.

That's it for today.  I'll be back tomorrow with the latest market news and action.

Happy trading!

Tom