EB Daily Market Report - Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Tom Bowley - January 28, 2026

Executive Summary

Futures were mostly higher overnight, but there's been mostly selling since the opening bell
The S&P 500 has turned negative for the session, ahead of the 2pm FOMC policy decision, but did briefly surpass 7000 for the first time ever in the opening minutes
Semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +1.74%) remain very strong and that's helping our major indices without a doubt
Growth (IWF, -0.31%) has been outpacing value (IWD, +0.08%) in recent days, which is a positive, but that's not the case thus far today
I'll be watching the action closely after 2pm ET and the Fed announcement; what type of rotation will we see?
Technology (XLK, +0.78%) is today's leader and has also led over the past week (+3.75%)
Energy (XLE, +0.27%) is the next best sector today as crude oil ($WTIC, +0.93%) spikes to $63 per barrel
Commodities continue to soar, with silver ($SILVER, +4.73%) and gold ($GOLD, +3.68%) hitting new records
The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is up 4 basis points and is currently 4.26% ahead of the Fed decision
Seagate Technology (STX, +19.65%) continues its explosion to the upside after reporting its latest quarterly results
Fasten your seatbelt; Microsoft (MSFT, +0.02%), Meta Platforms (META, -0.31%), and Tesla (TSLA, +1.00%) all report their latest results after the bell today

Market Outlook

One interesting development that's taken place in the stock market recently that can be considered in your future investing strategy is the breakdown in the U.S. Dollar ($USD):

It might be a tad early to call this a breakdown. After all, it is a 15-year chart, and the lower uptrend channel line has only been violated - briefly - by market action this week. Perhaps we see a major reversal back to the upside. But if this turns out to be a significant breakdown and our multi-year dollar rally has ended, it could have profound impacts on many asset classes.

ETFs investing in foreign indices would be one major beneficiary. Check out the next section for an example with the German DAX ($DAX) and the ETF that tracks it (EWG).

Sectors/Industries

ETFs that track foreign indices have a currency component that can significant alter performance. The falling dollar will yield much better results in the ETF than what you see in the underlying foreign market index. Check out this chart:

Notice that the German DAX ($DAX, top panel) has not yet broken back out again, but the EWG, which tracks the DAX, has broken out. Why? Well, that's the falling dollar impact. Check out those circles where the dollar ($USD) has fallen abruptly, resulting in a strong rally in the EWG to new highs, despite the DAX not making new highs. This is the currency component of the EWG trade. It will outperform its underlying index ($DAX) when the dollar falls, while underperforming the DAX when the dollar rises.

If we believe the dollar has broken down and is heading lower, and we like the recent relative strength of the DAX vs the SPX, investing in the EWG makes a ton of sense.

ChartLists and Trading Strategies

I'm a fan of the energy (XLE) area for now, so finding stocks in the sector that have recently broken out from a period of consolidation is one strategy that I like. From the Strong Earnings ChartList (SECL), here is one energy name (pipelines) that looks like a solid fit:

KMI:

Upcoming Earnings

Our Upcoming Earnings ChartLists and Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartList are included on our website.

Economic Reports

FOMC policy statement at 2pm ET

Happy trading!
Tom