EB Daily Market Report - Friday, March 13, 2026

Dear Members.

The market started on a positive note this morning despite weak GDP and persistent inflation readings but has deteriorated as the day progressed, with the S&P and NASDAQ in negative territory and the Dow hugging the flat line. 

The S&P did dip below the most recent low of 6636 on Monday and looks like it might visit its 200-day moving average, currently at 6604. Both the NASDAQ and the Dow are flirting with their respective 200 day moving averages.

Interestingly, though the VIX is higher, it's substantially lower than its peak of 35.30 earlier in the week. In other words, even though the S&P hit a lower level today than Monday, traders are less concerned than they were when the VIX climbed above that 35 level.

It makes some sense that traders are laying low into the weekend, especially given world tensions. But there's risk right now in being long or short because things can change so quickly. Does the Iran situation escalate or ease over the weekend? No one really knows so there's the risk of holding either long or short as there's no telling how the market will respond come Monday morning.

Thus, it continues to make sense to be more cautious here, starting by seeing where the S&P closes today. A close below that 200 day moving average of 6604 would spell more trouble whereas a rally into the close could give the bulls a little more room to work with.

Tom will be back with his weekly market report on Monday.

At your service,

John Hopkins