EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Wednesday, March 18, 2026

The FOMC policy statement, out at 2:00pm ET and just a bit ago, indicated that the Fed would leave the fed funds rate unchanged, which is exactly what the market was expecting. The statement indicated that the Fed is currently "uncertain" as to what the Iran War might mean to the economy later in 2026 and what impact it could have on interest rate decisions. The FOMC did note, however, that, as a group, they do expect a rate cut later in 2026 and the median forecast was for another rate cut in 2027, thought the timing was unsure.

We still have time until today's close, so things can change, but there was very little stock market reaction immediately after the announcement. The S&P 500 was trading at around 6676 when the news hit. After an initial jump of around 7 points or so to 6683, the S&P 500 reverted back to 6676 and was unchanged from 10 minutes earlier. That doesn't mean we won't see a more significant move in one direction or the other by the close, but for now, the move is rather muted.

There was very little movement in the bond market as well, with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) dropping one basis point in the first 10 minutes after the FOMC announcement.

Unless there's a much more significant change in our major indices by the close, I'd say nothing has changed really. The S&P 500, which is currently down 0.64% on the session, is range bound. I'd use 6800 as key short-term price resistance and 6538 as very important medium-term support to the downside. The 6676 level is literally in the middle of this current range. Therefore, trying to predict short-term market direction is about the same as trying to determine a coin flip.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD, -3.83%), after gaining ground recently and challenging overhead price resistance in the 74000-75000 area, is backing off today as most cryptos trade lower. Gold and silver are down 2.44% and 3.72%, respectively, while crude oil is flat near $95 per barrel. Energy (XLE, +0.35%) and industrials (XLI, +0.11%) are the only two sectors gaining ground after the FOMC announcement, while 9 sectors are down, 5 by more than 1%. Consumer stocks are particularly weak with staples (XLP, -1.97%) and discretionary (XLY, -1.40%) both getting hit.

We'll be back tomorrow after market participants have had the rest of today and much of tomorrow to digest the Fed news.

Happy trading!

Tom