EB Daily Market Report - Friday, March 20, 2026

Dear Members.

It's options expiration Friday and the bears are out in full force wiping out as much call premium as possible with all of the major indexes substantially lower.

Technically, the market is oversold, but all major indexes are below all key moving averages. For the S&P, it's closing in on key price support of 6521 from last November. If that level goes, we could see additional selling.

The VIX is higher by 10% but is interestingly well below the recent peak near 35 when the S&P was 100 points higher. In other words, fear is still high but may be peaking as selling might be overdone.

The last time the S&P closed below its 200-day moving average, it stayed there for almost two months including the sharp move lower as a result of tariffs. So we shouldn't take this recent selling lightly; it could get worse. 

As we've seen on many occasions under the current administration, things can change on a dime, especially when we get an "out of the blue" positive announcement. So shorting in an already oversold market has risks as well. But unless the bulls can recapture the S&P's 200-day moving average, we've got to give the upper hand to the bears.

Bottomline: We need to see if the S&P holds the line at 6521. If it doesn't, we could see more selling. On the other hand, if the S&P closes back above its 200-day moving average, currently at 6622, the worst of the selling could be over.

Tom will be back with his Weekly Market Report on Monday.

At your service,

John Hopkins