EB Daily Market Report - Brief Update - Tuesday, March 31, 2026
We hosted our Q2 Update to our MarketVision 2026 series yesterday after the market close. If you're interested in the Big Picture and how Q1 performed vs. our MV 2026 forecast back in January, I'd highly recommend you check out the recording from last night. I believe it's highly educational and informative and dives into what really matters in the stock market.
I did mention last night that I felt like U.S. stocks are quite oversold in the near-term and that I wouldn't be surprised if were to bounce, possibly back towards the declining 20-day EMAs. On the S&P 500, that's exactly what's happening today:
I see price resistance on the S&P 500 from 6506.48-6538.76 and then the rapidly-declining 20-day EMA, currently at 6605, providing additional resistance if price resistance is cleared. To the downside, I still view 6144 as the key price support level.
Money is rotating more towards large cap growth (IWF, +3.46%) vs. large cap value (IWD, +1.60). Also, discretionary (XLY, +2.99%) is crushing staples (XLP, -0.47%) on the session as the more aggressive consumer stocks bounce strongly.
This type of bullish day MAY or MAY NOT be starting a new uptrend. It's WAAAY too early to tell, but it beats the heck out of the alternative, where we rebound weakly on relative strength from value- and defensive-oriented stocks.
Technically, the combination of price and volume is the most important indicator of all. So I remain 100% cautious AT LEAST until the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 can negotiate 20-day EMA resistance on a closing basis. That is the absolute minimum of what I need to see. From there, we can evaluate the types of stocks pushing the indices higher and so forth.
It's also worth pointing out that, since 1950, the S&P 500's best calendar day performance (annualized) is as follows:
1st: +44.08%
2nd: +39.72%
16th: +26.93%
5th: +25.86%
31st: +24.50%
As you can see, we're in a sweet spot right now from a calendar perspective. The 1st and 2nd (tomorrow and Thursday) calendar days of the month have been the best days BY FAR. And the 31st (today) ranks 5th out of the 31 calendar days. Keep in mind that lots of new money pours into U.S. stocks at the beginning of each calendar month and portfolio managers buy in at the end of the month in anticipation of those money flows.
This isn't a guarantee, it's simply a long-term tendency. I rarely bet against the market at the beginning of a calendar month.
Happy trading!
Tom