EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Special Events

On Saturday, June 27th, we will be hosting a LiveStream event, "Is This An AI Bubble", where I'll provide you my thoughts on this subject and my reasons for those thoughts. It will begin at 10:00am ET and all of you will be provided instructions for joining us.

On Monday, June 29th, we will host our latest MarketVision 2026 quarterly update. More information will be forthcoming on this event later in the week, but this is an Annual Member perk. For those of you that are currently Monthly Members, now is a great time to move to an annual plan, save a ton of money, and attend Monday's event. If you're interested in moving to an annual plan, simply respond to this email and let us know!

We'll see everyone on Saturday and Monday for two great events!

Major Indices

I saw headlines today, highlighting the "plunge" of semiconductors. Yes, they are down significantly. Nearly the entire move, however, was a gap lower. That triggered a corresponding gap lower in our major indices. At last check, the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) was down 3.27%, but is down less than 0.1% from its open.

We are in consolidation mode, with recent movement above and below 20-day EMAs. Therefore, until we see another breakout, I would NOT view the 20-day EMA as key support or resistance. Instead, here is the current short-term trading range:

S&P 500: 7233-7610
NASDAQ 100: 28015-30730

Divergences

The recent back and forth action has helped to alleviate the impact of negative divergences on the daily charts of our major indices and key sectors/industries. I don't believe we're totally out of the woods and, therefore, could still see further downside as a result. The support levels reflected above on the SPX and NDX, however, are important to hold. Failure to do so would suggest additional downside is likely.

Semiconductors remains the most vulnerable area. Both the SOXX and SMH are semiconductor ETFs that show negative divergences and currently trade slightly above rising 20-day EMAs. In the very near-term, a break of the 20-day EMA support could definitely trigger a scarier short-term scenario for this area, and the overall market in general. Market makers could trigger this additional selling by simply producing another gap lower tomorrow or later this week. I've seen it plenty of times before.

Bonds

The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) has been moving lower for the past 5 weeks, despite being higher this week. I believe that the TNX moving lower again suggests that Wall Street doesn't see inflation being a big threat later this year and into 2027. That would help to explain why home construction ($DJUSHB) has been showing relative strength:

The group still has work to do and eventually clearing 2550 would be a very bullish development.

The homebuilders ETF (XHB) is showing even more bullishness, but also awaiting a breakout:

Earnings

Micron Technology (MU), a $1.37 trillion semiconductor company, will report its latest quarterly results after the closing bell on Wednesday. This report, more than anything else, is likely to drive the short-term action in semiconductors. I'm expecting more volatility from the group prior to tomorrow's report.

Happy trading!

Tom