October 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Short Squeeze (SSCL)
• Leading Stock (LSCL)
• Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated on our website. The Hot Stocks ChartList (HTCL) is a fairly new ChartList at EarningsBeats.com. It was created by our very own Matt Townsend, who employs a number of momentum strategies in identifying what he believes are 20 very hot momentum stocks. His strategy is to hold onto these stocks as long as the momentum remains. You can read more about this relatively new feature under "ChartLists" on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Recently, I've discussed the increasing odds of an A-B-C corrective pattern. Well, with the fresh new all-time highs, that pattern has already been shattered. Now the S&P 500 continues to move further and further into record all-time high territory and the historically-bearish period from the October 21st close through the October 27th close will be behind us as of today's close. Next up is the most bullish 10-day historical period on the S&P 500, which runs from the October 27th close through the November 6th close. The October 27th close also marks the beginning of an extremely bullish period that lasts through January 18th of next year. This October 27th through January 18th period has risen 65 of the past 75 years. The odds aren't perfect, but history tells us there's a very good chance that the S&P 500 will be higher on January 18th than it is at today's close.

The is all fairly short-term talk, but the longer-term still looks to be very bright to me. Long-term investors should remain long, in my opinion.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

I mentioned last week that the short-term downtrend in the QQQ vs SPY ratio, along with the downtrend in the XLY vs XLP ratio, suggested perhaps an increased likelihood of another downleg in the market. Well, the opposite occurred. We saw another breakout to all-time highs and they were accompanied by improvement in our ratios, including the QQQ vs SPY above.

IWM:QQQ

The fundamentals continue to suggest that the IWM is more likely than not to lead our major indices higher, with the IWM outperforming on a relative basis. The above chart supports that fundamental theory, though last week's action in the IWM vs. QQQ did see a downturn. It'll be interesting to see how this ratio holds up this week, given the HUGE earnings reports in several of the Mag 7, including AAPL, MSFT, META, and GOOGL.

XLY:XLP

We finally saw a nice pop in discretionary stocks vs. their staples counterparts. That's a positive, especially considering that it accompanied a big move higher in the S&P 500 to another all-time record high.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently.  The 5-day SMA's move back above 0.55 and into "neutral" territory didn't last as it quickly reverted back to more of the same - complacency. Complacency is not nearly as reliable in calling tops as extreme pessimism is at marking bottoms. Trying to constantly call tops based upon 5-day SMA readings below 0.55 can be extremely frustrating, as evidenced above.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. No changes here. The overall downtrend appears to be intact and this is a bullish signal into year end, in my opinion.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked three weeks ago and as Q3 earnings season really kicks into gear: 

• JPM – very strong advance heading into earnings next week
• BA – recent pullback to test rising 20-month EMA
• FFIV – steady push higher has been relentless
• MA – mostly consolidating in 2025, but remains comfortably above 20-month EMA
• GS – very strong uptrend, nearly tripling over last 20 months
• FDX – pushing back above its 20-month EMA, encouraging
• AAPL – monthly RSI test of 50 provided excellent buying opportunity
• CHRW – trending up since breakout above 110
• JBHT – monthly RSI in 40s, typically solid entry point for the long-term
• STX - buyers everywhere since the long-term breakout in May
• HSY – trending up now above 20-month EMA, needs to break above 200
• DIS – still needs breakout above 125, while looking for 20-month EMA support
• MSCI – lengthy sideways consolidation spanning most of past 2-3 years
• SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
• KRE – breakout above 68-70 would likely spur much more buying, looks good
• ED – multiple successful tests of rising 20-month EMA
• AJG – looking to renew its long-term uptrend after 20-month EMA test
• NSC – breakout and all-time high now measures to 380
• RHI – appears headed to major price support test in 28-30 area
• ADM – trending higher, a push above 65 completely reverses downtrend
• BG – keeps testing its 20-month EMA from underneath, needs to clear
• CVS – move up to near 80 this month very positive development
• IPG – support in 22.00-22.50 range has held thus far
• HRL - moving below 25 not a good look, needs reversal now
• DE – love this 20-month EMA test after breaking out to all-time high

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: CDNS ($92 billion), WM ($87 billion), NXPI ($56 billion), CLS ($33 billion)
• Tuesday: V ($634 billion), UNH ($326 billion), BKNG ($165 billion), UPS ($74 billion), DHI ($47 billion)
• Wednesday: MSFT ($3.87 trillion), GOOGL ($3.07 trillion), META ($1.84 trillion), NOW ($195 billion), KLAC ($153 billion)
• Thursday: AAPL ($3.85 trillion), AMZN ($2.36 trillion), LLY ($777 billion), MA ($519 billion), RBLX ($83 billion), COIN ($83 billion)
• Friday: XOM ($494 billion), ABBV ($403 billion), CVX ($271 billion)

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: September durable goods
• Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, August Case-Shiller home price index, October consumer confidence
• Wednesday: September pending home sales, FOMC meeting ends
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q3 GDP (initial estimate)
• Friday: September personal income & spending, September PCE index, Q3 employment cost index, October Chicago PMI

Given the current government shutdown, the above reports will not be released unless the shutdown ends.

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Oct 27: -26.14% (Ex: cumulative gains = -5.37% over 52 trading days since 1950. -5.37% x 253/52 = -26.14%)
• Oct 28: +125.55%
• Oct 29: +76.78%
• Oct 30: +57.64%
• Oct 31: +9.53%
• Nov 1: +47.70%
• Nov 2: +79.69%
• Nov 3: +98.11%
• Nov 4: +50.55%
• Nov 5: +77.71%
• Nov 6: -11.74%
• Nov 7: -7.35%
• Nov 8: +22.15%
• Nov 9: -10.78%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Oct 27: -73.58%
• Oct 28: +161.74%
• Oct 29: +67.54%
• Oct 30: +28.86%
• Oct 31: +76.76%
• Nov 1: +46.72%
• Nov 2: +101.17%
• Nov 3: +97.89%
• Nov 4: +103.87%
• Nov 5: +108.87%
• Nov 6: +43.46%
• Nov 7: -31.20%
• Nov 8: -4.82%
• Nov 9: -62.87%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Oct 27: -132.36%
• Oct 28: +194.87%
• Oct 29: +64.49%
• Oct 30: +6.98%
• Oct 31: +128.10%
• Nov 1: +7.94%
• Nov 2: +133.34%
• Nov 3: +170.75%
• Nov 4: +58.62%
• Nov 5: +83.55%
• Nov 6: +76.93%
• Nov 7: -68.96%
• Nov 8: +26.02%
• Nov 9: -54.42%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

U.S. stocks mostly gained ground last week, despite not-so-great earnings reports from Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA), both of which gapped down after missing earnings estimates. Fortunately for the bulls, NFLX and TSLA were among the few to miss earnings estimates as most other major companies easily exceeded forecasts. Throw in a tame September CPI report on Friday and the bulls were in charge right through Friday's close.

Here are a few things I'm thinking about as we move deeper into earnings season:

Earnings. Roughly 80% of companies reporting quarterly earnings, thus far, have exceeded expectations, setting the stage for new all-time highs on our major indices almost daily. The earnings spotlight only gets brighter this week, with AAPL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and GOOGL all set to report their results this week.

Interest Rates. Earnings and interest rates are the two key factors that drive equity prices over time. Earnings are exploding, for the most part, while we wait for the Fed to lower the fed runds rate again on Wednesday by 25 basis points. Better-than-expected earnings and lower interest rates both serve to drive company valuations higher. It's hard for me to imagine the S&P 500 doing anything other than steadily rising in Q4, with minor pullbacks along the way, of course.

2025 S&P 500 Target. At MarketVision 2025, on the first Saturday in January, I predicted a Q1 correction, but ultimately believed that lower interest rates would trigger a 2nd half of 2025 rally that would send the S&P 500 to 7000. As of this report, the S&P 500 is at 6861, just 139 points, or 2%, below my 2025 target.

Seasonality. The worst historical week of the year will be behind us after today's close. The good news is that we'll start the BEST period of the year at today's close and it lasts all the way through January 18th of next year. U.S. equities are particularly strong historically from today's close through the November 6th close on the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 (IWM). The bullish seasonal period ends one day earlier, on

November 5th, for the S&P 500.

Happy trading!
Tom