002 Weekly Market Report

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists have been updated and have been posted to our website:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The Key Manipulation spreadsheet has been updated through Friday, September 25, 2026. You can view and/or download this spreadsheet from our website.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Interest rates have been wearing on specific, interest-rate-sensitive areas of the stock market. However, the large cap S&P 500, thus far, has been largely unaffected. I see no reason to change our long-term stance.

The long-term secular bull market uptrend remains in place.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Money is rotating HEAVILY into the more aggressive NASDAQ 100, which is historically a very bullish signal.

IWM:QQQ

Personally, I believe the current weakness is setting the IWM up with a very attractive long-term entry point. There's no question that the IWM is moving inversely with the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) and the TNX is moving straight up right now. When that changes, and I believe we're getting fairly close to a long-term top in the TNX, the IWM should represent a high quality investment. Perhaps it makes sense to wait for this relative weakness to reverse before entering, however. Early October has not been kind to small caps since the late 1980s, at least based on historical data.

XLY:XLP

I'd say the consumer is not particularly healthy after looking at 2026 performance of both the XLY and the XLP. But if you stretch out the chart to 5 years, you'll see that both the XLY and XLP are in longer-term uptrends. So let's continue to have patience here. When the stock market senses that interest rate hikes have ended, I look for consumer stocks to perform exceptionally well. Until then....

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

I think it's a good idea to watch this signal regularly (weekly), which is why it's on this Weekly Market Report and will continue to be. One thing is absolutely certain at the moment. Wall Street is NOT pouring into staples stocks. And that should happen at ANY significant market top. I'm not saying we couldn't pull back in our key indices temporarily, but I'm convinced we will not see a significant market selloff at least into Q1 2027. I'm not saying we'll have one then either, but we can re-evaluate at that time.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The 5-day CPCE is cause for concern near-term. Any time this signal hits 0.50 or lower, we've had tendencies to run into short-term market issues. Given that it's late September, I certainly don't want to rule out a bit of short-term weakness before potentially bottoming sometime in October. Historically, that makes a lot of sense.

The IWM, as I mentioned earlier, has been sold off hard and could look to rebound. Maybe we'll see a bit of short-term rotation from large caps to small caps in the near-term? It's something to think about.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction and the hesitation that traders have right now. A downtrend in this ratio generally accompanies a large secular bull market rally in the S&P 500, while an uptrend can spell trouble or, at the very least, lots of back and forth action of this benchmark index. That's been its history. Over the past year, this 253-day SMA can't make up its mind. I view this as neutral currently.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th: 

• JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
• BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
• FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
• MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
• GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
• FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
• AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
• CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
• JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
• STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
• HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
• DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
• MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
• SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
• KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
• ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
• AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
• NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
• RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
• ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
• BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
• CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
• HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
• DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
• LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
• TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
• META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
• ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
• KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
• ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
• ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
• MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
• MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
• TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: CCL ($30 billion)
• Wednesday: MU ($1.22 trillion), JBL ($33 billion)
• Thursday: ACN ($118 billion), NKE ($53 billion)
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: July Case-Shiller home price index, September consumer confidence, August JOLTS
• Wednesday: September ADP employment report, Q2 GDP (final estimate), August wholesale & retail inventories, August personal income & spending, August PCE index
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, September PMI manufacturing, September ISM manufacturing, August construction spending
• Friday: September employment report, unemployment rate & average hourly earnings, August factory orders

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Sep 28: +67.63% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +14.17% over 53 trading days since 1950. +14.17% x 253/53 = +67.63%)
• Sep 29: -86.65%
• Sep 30: -19.23%
• Oct 1: +53.74%
• Oct 2: +38.36%
• Oct 3: -11.03%
• Oct 4: +45.76%
• Oct 5: +66.17%
• Oct 6: +36.20%
• Oct 7: -36.76%
• Oct 8: +9.31%
• Oct 9: -61.11%
• Oct 10: -1.68%
• Oct 11: +28.18%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Sep 28: +57.82%
• Sep 29: -93.72%
• Sep 30: +3.33%
• Oct 1: +17.90%
• Oct 2: -40.39%
• Oct 3: -9.25%
• Oct 4: +57.17%
• Oct 5: +41.24%
• Oct 6: +5.37%
• Oct 7: -81.43%
• Oct 8: +10.81%
• Oct 9: -49.54%
• Oct 10: -7.89%
• Oct 11: +79.53%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Sep 28: +78.91%
• Sep 29: -48.31%
• Sep 30: +45.33%
• Oct 1: -29.34%
• Oct 2: -72.07%
• Oct 3: -79.80%
• Oct 4: +85.41%
• Oct 5: +31.68%
• Oct 6: -23.34%
• Oct 7: -156.30%
• Oct 8: -63.96%
• Oct 9: -139.03%
• Oct 10: +98.17%
• Oct 11: +30.34%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) spiked big time last week, surging above the key psychological 5.00% level with relative ease. That kept pressure on many interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market, which I spoke about last week. Small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), homebuilders (XHB), and transports (IYT) all were under serious pressure and remain there.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The pressure from higher yields remains a primary concern as the 10-year treasury yield has surged above 5.25%, the highest yield we've seen since the 2007 secular bear market top. I'm of the opinion that we can handle a TNX in the 5.00%-5.50% range, but above that becomes much dicier, in my opinion. Right now, there are few signs of Wall Street bailing on U.S. equities. Therefore, I believe it remains prudent for long-term investors to stick with stocks.

Sentiment. While the market has remained resilient, which should be construed as a positive, we've also seen the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) plummet. The 5-day moving average has fallen to nearly 0.50, the lowest level since early June, when we saw a significant top in many aggressive areas. While this indicator is not associated with long-term tops, it can be very instrumental in marking short-term tops. The 5-day CPCE is now in the bearish camp - at least for now.

Technical Conditions. One piece of really good news is that we've now negotiated much of September, including the worst part of it (September 21-27), without any significant deterioration in technical conditions. Small caps (IWM) have certainly been under pressure with rates rising, but many of the larger cap names have avoided significant selling. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is trading at its 20-day EMA, as of this writing, while the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) remains above both its 20-day and 50-day MAs.

Happy trading!

Tom