March 2026

Special Note

Be sure to join me later today for our MarketVision 2026 Q2 Update session, which begins at 5:30pm ET.

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, March 27th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success. We have discontinued the Upcoming Earnings ChartLists until the new earnings season starts in a couple weeks.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week was a reminder of how volatile geopolitical issues can be, especially when they involve the Middle East. The S&P 500 has now fallen 5 straight weeks, yet there's barely (no pun intended) a smudge on the long-term Big Picture chart above. The beauty of this chart is that it takes weakness like we've endured in 2026 in stride and focuses squarely on where we'll likely be in years, not weeks.

I remain bullish long-term, despite the short-term issues that we discussed were quite possible at the beginning of 2026.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

Last week, I mentioned that this ratio dropped, but was still encouraging because the rotation into value wasn't overly significant. Well, that changed last week as money poured into value on a relative basis. This ratio is definitely downtrending once again, while we wait to see if February relative lows hold.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) broke down below 245 price support, setting a fresh 4-month low last week. There was a silver lining, however, as small caps gained ground vs. their large cap counterparts on both an intraday and closing basis last week. I remain of the opinion that rate cuts are still coming, but will likely be delayed until 2027, especially with the war and rising crude oil prices working their way through inflation numbers the next few to several months.

XLY:XLP

Last week, I also pointed out that this ratio was more encouraging as well, just like the QQQ:SPY ratio. That also changed in a big way. The S&P 500 broke down during a week where consumer discretionary stocks were huge losers. The rotation from discretionary to staples was quite significant, a bearish market development in the near-term.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Despite the highest 5-day SMA of the CPCE in 18 months, a short-term bottom was found for only a couple days before further selling ensued and new recent lows formed. That additional selling was accompanied by a big reduction in the daily CPCE readings, unusual for sure. Retail options traders may need to see more pain, before committing to the put side.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. We pointed out a few months ago that the turn higher in this long-term moving average was not good news for market bulls. Now we're seeing market challenges appear one after another, week after week.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked on MONTHLY charts as of Monday, March 2nd: 

• JPM – look for more sideways action ahead as the monthly PPO rolls over
• BA – could be on the verge of a major move; needs to clear 250-275
• FFIV – long-term trend is higher, now back above its rising 20-month EMA
• MA – 525 price support holding, solid entry point with weekly RSI at 44
• GS – likely needs a rest after a massive 2-year run; 20-month EMA near 700
• FDX – this one looks great, just breaking above double top at 300
• AAPL – steady climber, consolidating 2025 rise; 20-month EMA is support
• CHRW – overbought after massive 9-10 month run higher
• JBHT – a leader in the red-hot transportation area; monthly PPO strengthens
• STX - monthly RSI at 92+, so clearly overbought; what a massive rise
• HSY - waited patiently for a breakout above 200, now rolling
• DIS - 125 is the number; clear that and DIS could be off to the races
• MSCI - lots of consolidation, needs to break above 650
• SBUX - working on its 5th year of consolidation, needs a breakout
• KRE – ran to all-time high before pulling back recently
• ED – breaking out as it heads into the seasonally-favorable month of March
• AJG - steady performer for 15 years; might have found support with bounce
• NSC – like JBHT, rallying and breaking out on heels of transports strength
• RHI – January rally gave way to big February selling; expect a dividend cut
• ADM – rallying back over past year with monthly PPO now above zero line
• BG – breakout after 4 years of consolidation a very bullish signal
• CVS – holding 70 support remains key, continues to improve
• HRL - short-term rally is nice, but key will be clearing 27.50
• DE – latest earnings report sent stock to new all-time high; excellent chart
• LULU - needs a catalyst to end its 2+ year slide; looking for 150 to hold
• TTD - free falling within one of worst industries - software; 15-20 is support
• META - remains in range from 600-800; may consolidate further
• ADBE - broke down below 2022 low, reports earnings in two weeks
• KMB - added recently as its monthly RSI at 40 could present an opportunity

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: NKE ($77 billion)
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: January Case-Shiller home price index, March Chicago PMI, February JOLTS, March consumer confidence
• Wednesday: February retail sales (delayed), March ADP employment report, March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, January business inventories (delayed)
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims
• Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & hourly wages, March PMI services

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Mar 30: -39.66% (Ex: cumulative gains = -8.15% over 52 trading days since 1950. -8.15% x 253/52 = -39.66%)
• Mar 31: -4.21%
• Apr 1: +68.04%
• Apr 2: +20.09%
• Apr 3: -23.94%
• Apr 4: -47.28%
• Apr 5: +68.25%
• Apr 6: +45.38%
• Apr 7: -48.79%
• Apr 8: +53.63%
• Apr 9: +109.22%
• Apr 10: +29.62%
• Apr 11: -20.05%
• Apr 12: +63.88%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Mar 30: -12.85%
• Mar 31: +37.85%
• Apr 1: +87.35%
• Apr 2: +24.04
• Apr 3: -123.94%
• Apr 4: -106.39%
• Apr 5: +112.55%
• Apr 6: +26.71%
• Apr 7: -36.56%
• Apr 8: +29.16%
• Apr 9: +146.83%
• Apr 10: +16.14%
• Apr 11: -36.79%
• Apr 12: +33.04%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Mar 30: +26.93%
• Mar 31: +75.91%
• Apr 1: +26.79%
• Apr 2: +17.29%
• Apr 3: -108.91%
• Apr 4: -72.50%
• Apr 5: +101.16%
• Apr 6: +51.29%
• Apr 7: -87.02%
• Apr 8: +57.42%
• Apr 9: +131.26%
• Apr 10: +4.99%
• Apr 11: -77.78%
• Apr 12: +45.00%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Obviously, U.S. stocks are now under pressure. EarningsBeats.com members should not be surprised. After all, I've been discussing the warning signs all coming together since back in December 2025. Those warning signs have only continued to grow and now we have a downtrend in our major indices to confirm all of those warning signs.

Here are a few things that I'll be watching this week:

The War in Iran and Crude Oil. Crude oil prices ($WTIC) closed above $100 per barrel last week for the first time since June 2022. The good news is that it's been accompanied by solidly-rising energy stocks (XLE). The XLE is, by far and away, the best-performing sector in 2026, gaining over 40% year to date. The bad news is that if energy prices remain elevated for an extended period of time, a recession could follow. We saw that happen in the 1970s, early 1990s, and 2008. I don't expect that to occur again in 2026, but the constantly-chirping news media could do what they do best.....fear monger. We can't rule it out.

Technical Outlook. The number one indicator for me has ALWAYS been the combination of price and volume. Currently, our major indices are downtrending, which is short-term bearish. We MUST respect the downtrend until it reverses. At a minimum, I need to see price action close back above declining 20-day EMAs OR print a positive divergence with a reversing candlestick. Until I see one of those conditions (or both) present, then I will look for lower equity prices.

Seasonality. One fairly consistent historical tendency over decades has been our major indices' tendency to rise over the two to three weeks prior to the start of earnings season. Please don't misquote me on this, it's a tendency, not a guarantee. But it'll certainly be interesting to see if U.S. stocks can somehow turn their attention away from the Iran war and soaring crude oil prices and towards rising earnings. I expect earnings season to be strong, but guidance could be tempered based on the anticipated impact of the war.

Earnings. JP Morgan (JPM) will kick off Q1 earnings season in roughly two weeks. Long-term interest rates are still expected to fall later this year or into next year and rising earnings, combined with falling interest rates, typically drive secular bull markets.

Inflation. Fed Chief Powell has said that rising crude oil prices will not have any lasting inflationary consequences as he stated earlier that the U.S. inflation outlook is "in check" and that interest rates would not need to be hiked. Fed Governor Stephen Miran went a step further and said rates could be a point lower this year. What actually will happen probably lies somewhere in the middle, MAYBE one rate cut later this year with additional cuts possible in 2027.

Happy trading!
Tom