July 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend and have been updated on our website:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Upcoming Earnings
• Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
• Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, July 24th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I continue to receive a number of emails, asking if this is the start of a significant correction, or even a cyclical bear market. First of all, let me say that if you're a long-term investor, I'd stick with the above chart and ignore all of the short-term noise. The ONLY time I'd consider getting out of the market is if I see MANY warning signs simultaneously, while the S&P 500 is trading at an all-time high. After the market goes through a decline, similar to what the NASDAQ has already done, I believe it's a MAJOR risk to exit the market - again, from a long-term perspective. The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is down 9%+ since its high in early June, mostly due to the weakening semiconductors ($DJUSSC).

Lowering the bar of expectations during the summer months makes a ton of sense, because that's been the weakest time of the calendar year for U.S. stocks since 1950. I've mentioned this several times recently, but July 17th through September 26th presents historical headwinds. After the major advance that we saw off of the late-March low, a period of selling and consolidation is healthy for the market. I actually welcome it. Short-term, the selling could accelerate, especially given the fact that the NDX closed at its lowest level in nearly 3 months on Friday. I thought we might see a gap lower. Instead, we saw brief strength at the opening bell and substantial selling since. For me, this is all short-term noise. But I understand it's still painful for now.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

The downtrend in this ratio is accelerating, which is problematic near-term. It's an indication that market participants are avoiding risk for the moment, while we search for a short-term bottom.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps remain a solid alternate to the risky, high-growth stocks found in the NASDAQ 100. It's those latter stocks that tend to drive the market higher over time, but during the summer months, especially August and September, parking some additional money in other areas and diversifying makes a bit more sense.

XLY:XLP

This is my favorite relative ratio and it's not very bullish right now. I wouldn't say it's overly bearish, but there's no doubt that we need to continue watching it. If we see the S&P 500 break down, with the XLY:XLP ratio downtrending, that would be a bad combination - at least in the near-term. Personally, I'm still not looking for any type of major selloff in our major indices, so I'd need to see a significant price breakdown to grow more cautious.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The 5-day SMA of the CPCE has been on the rise and definitely provides some hope to the bulls. We know that 5-day readings above 0.70, and especially 0.75, tend to provide the bulls a lot of ammunition to take prices higher.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

I've circled the indecision in this 253-day CPCE reading from 2019, because we seem to be shaping up the same way in 2026. A definitive break to a new low would be bullish and suggest further all-time highs ahead in our major indices. A more significant rise, however, would indicate the potential for storm clouds ahead. (No changes from the past two weeks)

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each weekly chart as of the end of June (I'll provide my next update next week): 

• JPM - just completed right side of cup; possible handle to form, bullish
• BA - trending higher off April 2025 low, would like to see 200 support hold
• FFIV - very bullish chart, but overbought as it consolidates in bull flag
• MA - downtrending, but slight positive divergence; 475 is key support
• GS - pulling back from overbought conditions, 950 solid support
• FDX - negative divergence and bearish engulfing candle suggest more selling
• AAPL - might be best Mag 7 stock right now, tested 20-week EMA last week
• CHRW - appears to be forming right side of cup - bullish
• JBHT - solid uptrend intact, rising 20-week EMA is key support
• STX - weekly RSI been hanging near 90, last week's selling not a bad thing
• HSY - eversing piercing candle printed last week, looking for recovery
• DIS - consider 93-110 as the intermediate-term trading range
• MSCI - wondered if breakout was coming; emphatic no based on June trading
• SBUX - trending higher, looking for test of 113-114 price resistance
• KRE - solid month of June resulted in bullish breakout
• ED - excellent action last week, keeping uptrend intact in the process
• AJG - breakout above 20-week EMA after positive divergence says bottom is in
• NSC - trading in narrow 299-320 trading range
• RHI - moving thru 34 price resistance from January would be very bullish
• ADM - beautiful bounce off rising 20-week EMA
• BG - triple top breakout was 110 and that's where we tested last week on selling
• CVS - chart couldn't look much better; in breakout and all-time high territory
• HRL - last week's 9.73% gain seems to be indicating long-term bottom is in
• DE - 3-month downtrend ended in June; now looking at testing 675 resistance
• LULU - nice reversal last week, but massive downtrend remains in play
• TTD - broken stock and one of the worst relative performers in software
• META - weakening with possible test of 480-520 price support range upcoming
• ADBE - failed miserably at 20-week EMA and moved below 200 for first time since 2018
• KMB - surged 14% last week to test declining 20-week EMA for first time
• ORCL - huge 34% decline last week sets up another test near 140 support
• ABBV - rode the health care rally to its new all-time high
• MCD - weekly RSI at 34, generally solid long-term entry point
• MKC - nice reversal last week, perhaps it'll move up to test its declining 20-week EMA
• TSCO - adding below.

We are adding Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO) as another stock that we like from a long-term, dividend-paying perspective. Its monthly RSI has approached 30 for only the third time in its history. It's lost half its value in just the last year and its dividend has been growing and appears quite safe to me. Here's the long-term monthly chart:

Because of the recent price weakness, TSCO now sports a solid 3% dividend yield. That, combined with an annual dividend growth rate of roughly 20% over the past 15 years, suggests that TSCO is an excellent addition to any growth & income or even just income portfolio for the future.

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: AZN ($261 billion), CDNS ($91 billion), NUE ($55 billion), CLS ($38 billion)
• Tuesday: V ($631 billion), KO ($349 billion), KLAC ($286 billion), STX ($205 billion), BA ($165 billion)
• Wednesday: MSFT ($2.83 trillion), META ($1.53 trillion), LRCX ($400 billion), ARM ($302 billion), APH ($194 billion)
• Thursday: AAPL ($4.72 trillion), AMZN ($2.51 trillion), MA ($469 billion), BMY ($126 billion), SYK ($122 billion)
• Friday: XOM ($650 billion), ABBV ($454 billion), CVX ($387 billion), ETN ($161 billion)

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: June durable goods
• Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, May Case-Shiller home price index, July consumer confidence
• Wednesday: FOMC policy decision
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP (Initial reading), June personal income & spending, June PCE index
• Friday: July Chicago PMI, July consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Jul 27: +9.03% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +1.89% over 53 trading days since 1950. +1.89% x 253/53 = +9.03%)
• Jul 28: -21.24%
• Jul 29: +35.55%
• Jul 30: +59.54%
• Jul 31: +19.78%
• Aug 1: -24.59%
• Aug 2: +10.21%
• Aug 3: +21.48%
• Aug 4: -55.24%
• Aug 5: -47.27%
• Aug 6: +11.65%
• Aug 7: +57.34%
• Aug 8: -3.41%
• Aug 9: -10.48%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Jul 27: -16.15%
• Jul 28: -50.31%
• Jul 29: +17.57%
• Jul 30: +30.33%
• Jul 31: +12.25%
• Aug 1: -65.00%
• Aug 2: -2.93%
• Aug 3: +32.33%
• Aug 4: -71.72%
• Aug 5: -88.71%
• Aug 6: +41.00%
• Aug 7: +68.35%
• Aug 8: -12.50%
• Aug 9: +2.58%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Jul 27: -61.56%
• Jul 28: +10.09%
• Jul 29: +96.80%
• Jul 30: +59.48%
• Jul 31: -23.30%
• Aug 1: -78.14%
• Aug 2: -88.19%
• Aug 3: -31.43%
• Aug 4: -104.87%
• Aug 5: -94.59%
• Aug 6: +1.35%
• Aug 7: +60.00%
• Aug 8: +6.28%
• Aug 9: +12.38%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

There is one very interesting part of the selling that has taken place in the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX). While the NDX has been selling off rather harshly, it's been accompanied by a lower Volatility Index - CBOE NASDAQ 100 ($VXN). That's unusual. Check out this chart:

Previously, when the NDX has been rising AND the VXN has been rising with it, we've subsequently seen a fairly significant selloff. But now the NDX is selling off and breaking down with the VXN much lower than it was. Interesting. Does that mean this selloff likely won't last and we'll soon see a large rebound? That's what this story tells me, but, quite honestly, there are a lot of conflicting signals in the market right now.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. The Fed meets this week and some believe we could see a 0.25 basis point hike. I'm not in that camp, but I will say that Fed Chief Warsh has been adamant that inflation will be crushed by Fed policy. If he truly wants to make a statement, a hike on Wednesday would be it. I actually think the stock market might react quite positively to it, believe it or not. The previous Fed, in my humble opinion, was incredibly "wishy-washy". I'm not sure what they stood for. If the current Fed's goal is to demonstrate to everyone that they're serious about ensuring low inflation ahead, then a hike is possible. We'll see.

Earnings. Earnings season is about to get really interesting. The market did not like Alphabet's (GOOGL) quarterly results last week, despite the better-than-expected revenues and EPS. It certainly didn't like Tesla's (TSLA) earnings miss. So what will happen later this week when Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN) hit the stage? I believe AAPL will report excellent results. The rest? Hhhmmmm, not so sure. Expectations have diminished considerably for both MSFT and META, so perhaps that will help them. AMZN is a big question mark, in my view.

Semiconductors. More and more companies within this influential group will be reporting results over the next 1 to 3 weeks. I believe results will be very strong again, but the way the group is trading, it's an indication that they were already priced for excellent results. Picking the right semiconductor stocks will likely be very important during the balance of 2026. Previously, you could buy just about any semiconductor stock and make money. I believe that's changed, so stock selection in the group will be critical. Continue to look for those stocks showing leadership relative to the rest of the group.

Technical Conditions. We can talk about a lot of warning signs and whether they signal a potential top in the market. But the key is ALWAYS price action. If price action doesn't confirm those warning signs, then the warning signs don't matter. On the S&P 500, I see two MAJOR price support levels, the first at the recent price low and rising 20-week EMA. They're currently at 7266.99 and 7285.06, respectively. The second major price support level is at 7000. It's a psychological number and it's also the level where the S&P 500 made a big breakout in April.

Happy trading!

Tom