August 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stock (LSCL)
• Upcoming Earnings and Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength
• Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

While we rarely pay attention to short-term happenings in the stock market when looking at it from a Big Picture perspective, it’s still worth noting that Fed Chief Powell discussed the increasing attention that the Fed must pay to deteriorating economic conditions.  That will very likely result in an interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting.  The big impact from potential rate cuts would be the outperformance of interest-rate-sensitive areas of the market over the next 6-9 months.  I would look for more rotation into areas like small caps, regional banks, home construction, transportation, possibly biotechs, etc.

I remain bullish, though I recognize that weak seasonality in August & September should keep us somewhat grounded about the overall performance of our major indices.  Growth stocks do tend to struggle a bit more on a relative basis over the balance of the calendar year.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

We’re seeing deterioration in this relative ratio.  While I certainly prefer to see the QQQ outperform the SPY as it’s an indication that investors are in “risk on” mode, rotation into more value-oriented stocks during the 2^nd half of calendar quarters really is not all that unusual.  Growth tends to lead approaching earnings season and during earnings season, then tends to give way to value after earnings season as a period of profit taking kicks in.  This has been especially true during Q3.

IWM:QQQ

Last week, without a doubt, was the most bullish for small caps since last summer.  There was a TON of rotation into small caps with that rotation accelerating big time on Friday.  That’s EXACTLY what we wanted to see with the Fed now hinting at a possible September rate cut.

XLY:XLP

This is one of my favorite charts and it’s still painting a fairly bullish picture as we move into a seasonally-weak period.  The strength shown last week in discretionary, both on an absolute basis and relative to staples, provides me a ton of confidence that any August-September selling will very likely be temporary and set up tremendous bullish opportunities for Q4.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently.  Currently, this 5-day reading is in neutral territory, providing us very little in the way of a directional clue.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. Look at the above chart. Nothing is changing here. When the 253-day SMA is moving lower like it is now, it accompanies our most bullish S&P 500 moves. I cannot think about being long-term bearish while this 253-day SMA keeps falling. Could we have a late-summer drift lower? Sure, but I doubt believe we're going to see any type of major selloff based on this chart.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of last week: 

• JPM – consolidating the past several weeks, remains bullish
• BA – currently in an uptrend, I’m expecting a move to 270-280
• FFIV – is in all-time high territory
• MA – same, in all-time high territory
• GS – very bullish long-term chart, though somewhat overbought
• FDX – trending below its 20-month EMA and 50-month SMA, needs to clear both to the upside
• AAPL – recently discussed importance of RSI 50 on monthly chart, now back in uptrend
• CHRW – huge July move higher, followed by more buying in August – to all-time highs
• JBHT – remains in 2025 downtrend, I’m expecting April low to hold on any further weakness
• STX - long-term breakout in May has sent stock soaring
• HSY – has improved significantly, but needs to clear price resistance at 200
• DIS – another on the improve, but needing a breakout above 125
• MSCI – slow and steady advance, watch for 654 breakout level
• SBUX - remains squarely in the middle of a wide consolidation range between roughly 70 and 115
• KRE – remains in nice uptrend;  should benefit from future rate cuts
• ED – trading above its rising 20-month EMA
• AJG – successfully testing its rising 20-month EMA
• NSC – could be breaking out of long-term cup with handle, measuring to 380
• RHI – very, very weak, with tons of price support at 30 and just below
• ADM – clearing its 20-month EMA for first time in two years
• BG – its primary short-term hurdle is clearing its declining 20-month EMA
• CVS – move back above 75 is what the bulls would like to see
• IPG – bouncing off 22.50 price support
• HRL - the last 18 months have been spent in a fairly narrow 27-35 range
• DE – dropped a bit with earnings recently, but remains in very bullish long-term uptrend

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: PDD ($171 billion)
• Tuesday: BMO ($80 billion), BNS ($70 billion)
• Wednesday: NVDA ($4.27 trillion), RY ($191 billion), CRWD ($103 billion), SNOW ($65 billion)
• Thursday: TD ($126 billion), DELL ($87 billion), MRVL ($62 billion), ADSK ($61 billion)
• Friday: BABA ($282 billion)

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: July new home sales
• Tuesday: July durable goods, June Case-Shiller home price index, June FHFA house price index, August consumer confidence
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP (2^nd estimate), July pending home sales
• July personal income & personal spending, August Chicago PMI, August consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Aug 25:  -20.66% (Ex: cumulative gains = -4.33% over 53 trading days. -4.33% x 253/53 = -20.66%)
• Aug 26:  -3.76%
• Aug 27:  -2.74%
• Aug 28:  -9.17%
• Aug 29:  +32.11%
• Aug 30:  -22.73%
• Aug 31:  +9.88%
• Sep 1:  +27.13%
• Sep 2:  +62.42%
• Sep 3:  -8.63%
• Sep 4:  -40.03%
• Sep 5:  -19.14%
• Sep 6:  +16.31%
• Sep 7:  -8.58%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Aug 25: +27.71%
• Aug 26:  +24.80%
• Aug 27:  +12.86%
• Aug 28:  -20.96%
• Aug 29:  +75.20%
• Aug 30:  -34.86%
• Aug 31:  +16.28%
• Sep 1:  +57.15%
• Sep 2:  +75.21%
• Sep 3:  -89.77%
• Sep 4:  -51.66%
• Sep 5:  -49.94%
• Sep 6:  -8.20%
• Sep 7:  +38.60%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Aug 25:  +5.79%
• Aug 26:  +2.45%
• Aug 27:  +32.30%
• Aug 28:  +14.73%
• Aug 29:  +158.05%
• Aug 30:  -69.37%
• Aug 31:  +1.28%
• Sep 1:  +39.71%
• Sep 2:  +94.68%
• Sep 3:  -96.69%
• Sep 4:  +34.66%
• Sep 5:  -64.90%
• Sep 6:  -15.74%
• Sep 7:  +31.72%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Well, the Fed Chief finally did it.  He managed to pry himself away from the hawkish view that he loves to maintain.  That clearly benefited interest-rate-sensitive areas last week, particularly on Friday, the day of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.  The strength in those interest-rate-sensitive areas accelerated at 10am ET on Friday, the moment that his speech began and never really let up.  So as we move into a new week to close out August, here are a few things I’m thinking about: 

• Earnings. Mostly, they’ve passed by.  However, I can’t overlook the HUGE earnings report out on Wednesday after the close from NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).  It could spark that AI trade all over again.  Also, a number of mid-tier software companies will be reporting this week to include CrowdStrike (CRWD), Autodesk (ADSK), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Nutanix (NTNX), MongoDB (MDB), and Okta (OKTA), among others.
• Interest-Rate-Sensitive Stocks. Do we see a continuation of the rotation from last week?  I’ll be watching, and likely trading, areas like small caps, regional banks, transports, homebuilders, biotechs, etc.
• Technical Conditions. Last week’s rally helped our major indices break out or approach breakout territory.  All of our major indices are trading back above their 20-day EMA, with the Dow Jones confirming an all-time high close.  The small-cap IWM did not hit an all-time high, but did surge on Friday to set a new 8-month high.
• Seasonality.  Ordinarily, I’d be very bullish with what transpired last week.  However, we must keep in mind that we’re one week away from entering easily the most bearish calendar month of the year – September.  I’m bullish, but it’s tempered somewhat just from knowing what I know about September.

Happy trading!

Tom