August 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Short Squeeze (SSCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)
• Upcoming Earnings
• Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, August 28th. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

It seems like we're continually climbing an uphill battle, based upon all the news and the negativity, but this chart says otherwise. It's telling long-term investors to ignore all the noise and stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

From a big picture perspective, this ratio topped in early June at the S&P 500 top then. The S&P 500 broke out again in August, but these ratios fell quite a bit between these two S&P 500 highs. It doesn't have a great look, and it could cause problems during the historically-bearish month of September, but I suppose, at the same time, it's encouraging that U.S. stocks have held up with the S&P 500 still very close to an all-time high.

IWM:QQQ

Last week's relative action was not good for small caps. Both of the ratios above hit new August lows as we closed out last week. I guess we'll find out if this was simply a "one off" or if it's the start of deeper relative weakness in the small cap area as we move through September.

XLY:XLP

It's not exact, but there are definitely some similarities between the action in our XLY:XLP ratios now and how they acted before both recent market tops in early 2025 and early 2026. I've shaded the two ratios in red to highlight their downtrends at a time when the S&P 500 is trying to move higher (blue-shaded areas).

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

Over the past week or two, I've been discussing a new consumer staples (XLP) signal that has triggered at major market tops in the past. These tops have occurred in the recent past when the 30-day cumulative consumer staples intraday signal reaches 106 or higher, suggesting a significant potential increase in Wall Street accumulation - the type of accumulation that would likely occur before a correction or cyclical bear market.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

Please note that the signal does move above 100 quite often, so readings above 100 should not be considered overly alarming. It's also important to note that even a 106+ reading doesn't necessarily mean, "run for the hills!" I view it as a reason to consider the possibility of a market top. This signal is absolutely a SECONDARY indicator, not a PRIMARY indicator. It alerts us to potential trouble ahead. If it combines with many other signals, then the odds of a pullback (or worse) would grow.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

We remain in neutral. If we do see accelerated selling in September, we could see a significant move higher in this reading, possibly in the .70-.75 area, where a major market bottom could print.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction that traders have right now when considering future market direction. The back and forth represents indecision.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, August 3rd: 

• JPM - neg divergence suggests upside momentum could be slowing
• BA - 175-260 multi-year trading range, currently in the middle of it
• FFIV - overbought, but excellent long-term chart
• MA - 18-month consolidation; break above 600 would be very bullish
• GS - slowing momentum similar to JPM, has more than tripled in 2 1/2 years
• FDX - 265-275 should provide excellent support on any weakness
• AAPL - remains strong long-term, despite the short-term earnings setback
• CHRW - July selling sets up 20-month EMA test, a buy from here
• JBHT - slightly overbought on monthly chart, but quite bullish
• STX - monthly RSI falling from mid-90s (!!!); short-term vulnerable
• HSY - consolidation from 2023 high continues, 140 is excellent support
• DIS - lengthy period of consolidation hopefully setting up breakout soon
• MSCI - very choppy with current trading range 540-640
• SBUX - long-term momentum accelerating, 113.64 is all-time high
• KRE - regional banks have been solid, but nearing overbought territory
• ED - long-term uptrend looks awesome, solid growth & dividend stock
• AJG - bottoming head & shoulders pattern argues for higher prices
• NSC - trending higher, though clearly not the best railroad stock in 2026
• RHI - trading above its 20-month EMA for the first time in 2026, improving
• ADM - challenged all-time high from 2022, could consolidate here for a bit
• BG - broke out earlier in 2026 and now backtesting breakout level, it's a buy
• CVS - remains in all-time high breakout mode, bullish
• HRL - recently cleared 20-week EMA, now battling 20-month EMA near 25
• DE - trending higher last 2 years, likely to continue that trend
• LULU - needs to hold recent low or potentially test support in 80-82 range
• TTD - this was added purely for growth and it's showing few signs of bottoming
• META - still struggling from negative divergence on monthly chart
• ADBE - clearing 285-290 would begin to suggest bottom is in
• KMB - nice recent rally with key resistance in 115-116 range
• ORCL - broke 2026 support and tested April 2025 low before reversing; interesting buy at this level
• ABBV - now has excellent support in mid-230s, bullish
• MCD - monthly RSI at 43 and monthly PPO near zero line typically buy signal
• MKC - 42-45 is support level to watch, expecting it to hold
• TSCO - monthly RSI near 30 says BUY, very oversold and yield now solid 3%

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: PANW ($312 billion), DELL ($306 billion), MDT ($115 billion), CRDO ($45 billion), MDB ($35 billion)
• Wednesday: AVGO ($1.77 trillion), SNOW ($114 billion), HPE ($72 billion), NTAP ($37 billion)
• Thursday: CIEN ($57 billion), ZS ($30 billion)
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: August PMI manufacturing, July construction spending, July JOLTS
• Wednesday: August ADP employment report, July factory orders, Fed beige book
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August PMI services
• Friday: August nonfarm payrolls, unemployment report, & average hourly earnings

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Aug 31: +9.88% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +2.07% over 53 trading days since 1950. +2.07% x 253/53 = +9.88%)
• Sep 1: +27.13%
• Sep 2: +56.89%
• Sep 3: -5.35%
• Sep 4: -34.19%
• Sep 5: -20.53%
• Sep 6: +16.31%
• Sep 7: -8.58%
• Sep 8: +9.40%
• Sep 9: -39.40%
• Sep 10: -19.21%
• Sep 11: +26.07%
• Sep 12: +14.42%
• Sep 13: +14.64%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Aug 31: +16.28%
• Sep 1: +57.15%
• Sep 2: +66.09%
• Sep 3: -78.51%
• Sep 4: -42.03%
• Sep 5: -48.65%
• Sep 6: -8.20%
• Sep 7: +38.60%
• Sep 8: -3.15%
• Sep 9: -4.94%
• Sep 10: -2.38%
• Sep 11: +69.43%
• Sep 12: +2.47%
• Sep 13: +1.53%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Aug 31: +1.28%
• Sep 1: +39.71%
• Sep 2: +90.17%
• Sep 3: -92.09%
• Sep 4: +33.01%
• Sep 5: -61.95%
• Sep 6: -15.74%
• Sep 7: +31.72%
• Sep 8: +48.76%
• Sep 9: -22.42%
• Sep 10: +2.18%
• Sep 11: +82.44%
• Sep 12: +63.15%
• Sep 13: +44.65%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

We started off last week a bit slow, but that wasn't too surprising when we consider that the Monday following monthly-options-expiration Friday is the worst day of the calendar month historically. Last week's low was on Monday, before we did see a bit of strength into week's end.

It's always a bit daunting as we head into September. The last two Septembers have shown strength, but the longer-term track record isn't bullish. Currently, the S&P 500 resides squarely on its 20-day EMA. Loss of that key moving average, along with key short-term price support at 7610, could lead to further technical selling, so keep that in mind.

For longer-term investors, however, I really don't see significant warning signs to suggest a lengthy decline or one that would potentially fall more than 10%. I think it makes much more sense to stay the course on the long side, rather than try to time potential selloffs.

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. This remains my biggest concern. Higher interest rates could spook Wall Street near-term. The TNX is at 4.76% right now, the highest level we've seen since piercing 4.80% in January 2025. After that last move higher in the TNX in late 2024 and into early 2025, the S&P 500 saw a decline of roughly 20%, though the last 3 days of the drop represented half of the fall. Also, during the big TNX run up during Q3 2023 to 5.0%, the S&P 500 experienced a brief correction, losing more than 10%. An S&P 500 decline occurring simultaneously with a TNX spike is not unprecedented and something we need to watch for.

The Economy. Nonfarm payrolls will be out on Friday. They're expected to rebound in August to 50,000 after posting a negative 23,000 for July. Another negative surprise, however, could begin to spark talk of a recession, leaving the Fed in somewhat of a box.

Software. This group is emerging once again as a leader. Its relative strength has turned much more bullish and there are additional software companies reporting quarterly results this week, including SNOW, MDB, and PATH. I expect more solid results from the group.

Happy trading!

Tom