002 Weekly Market Report

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets will be updated by tonight and will be updated on our website later this evening:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Matt's Hot Stocks (HTCL)

The above ChartLists and the Key Manipulation spreadsheet have been updated through Friday, September 11, 2026. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Upcoming Earnings ChartLists will not be provided again until Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-October.

IMPORTANT NOTE - There will be very few earnings reports this week, so we will not update our ChartLists again until Friday, September 25th.

Weekly Market Recap

Normally, the following 6 images are captured PRIOR to the Monday opening bell. However, this week, the images were captured after the market opened, so they will not depict only last week's action. Instead, today's early market action is reflected in the results.

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

September is well underway and we know the history of the month isn't great, particularly the second half of the month. But historical performance is no different than technical conditions or fundamental news, when it comes to the long-term. None of it matters if you're most interested in the long-term performance of the S&P 500.

Stay the course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth.

The intraday rotation last week was fairly solid, especially considering the relative strength we saw the week before in the QQQ. I'd say, overall, the more aggressive QQQ held up quite well as we've managed to navigate the first half of September. The second half of September, however, is where damage is typically inflicted.

IWM:QQQ

The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM is the ETF that tracks the Russell 2000) has been in an uptrend throughout 2026, but there've been a few cracks in the foundation of small caps lately, possibly because of the prospects of an upcoming rate hike in the fed funds rate on Wednesday. I'd feel better about the stock market if the IWM regains its earlier absolute and relative momentum. Until then, it probably makes sense to remain a bit cautious.

XLY:XLP

I continue to watch this ratio very closely as it's one of my favorite sustainability ratios. If the S&P 500 can move higher and break to new all-time highs with a rising XLY:XLP ratio, I grow much more bullish. We did see a bit of upside in the ratio last week, but we'd need a lot more for me to turn overwhelmingly bullish in the near-term.

XLP 30-Day Cumulative Signal

I think it's a good idea to watch this signal regularly (weekly), which is why it's on this Weekly Market Report and will continue to be. We're squarely back in neutral near 100, so it's providing us nothing of use at the moment. For those of you thinking that we're about to have a major drop in the S&P 500, just understand that this signal does not agree with you. I'm a believer in the "there's always a first time for everything", but 106+ readings in this signal have been common place before major selloffs and it makes good common sense to me that we'd see major rotation into staples prior to a big selloff.

Here's where this signal currently resides:

The current reading near 100 is neutral, so it's basically telling us nothing. It's not giving us a BUY or SELL signal. Always keep in mind that this is just one secondary indicator worth monitoring. It's part of my risk management strategy. My goal is to simply make these secondary indicators stronger and stronger and more reliable, not to provide us guarantees.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

I'm watching this indicator week to week, but it currently remains in neutral territory.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500.

The yellow circle illustrates the total lack of conviction that traders have right now when considering future market direction. The back and forth represents indecision. Nothing has changed here over the past several weeks.

Long-Term Trade Setups

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month, and below is how I viewed each MONTHLY chart as of Friday, September 4th: 

• JPM - monthly neg divergence remains a potential issue for now
• BA - long-term sideways action in play since start of pandemic
• FFIV - overbought, but long-term uptrend in play
• MA - cup pattern challenging 2025 high near 600, handle could be near 550
• GS - monthly RSI at 79, combined with neg divergence suggests caution
• FDX - beautiful breakout above 240 earlier this year, momentum strong
• AAPL - great long-term chart and not overbought
• CHRW - continues to hold its rising 20-month EMA
• JBHT - breakout in 2026 following years of consolidation is bullish
• STX - consolidation since June high fully warranted and acceptable
• HSY - recent consolidation in 170-190 range, still solid longer-term
• DIS - no follow through yet after August buying
• MSCI - very lengthy consolidation, breakout above 640 would be bullish
• SBUX - similar to MSCI, albeit with more breakout attempts
• KRE - August wasn't kind, but this L/T uptrend remains perfectly in play
• ED - looks solid, remaining in fairly narrow 102-115 range
• AJG - has regained strength, climbing back above its 20-month EMA
• NSC - 2025 cup with handle breakout measures to 375, so more upside ahead
• RHI - nice 2026 rally, but biggest resistance likely to be felt in 50-55 range
• ADM - looks like right side of cup complete, can't rule out 20-month EMA test
• BG - breakout and retest of rising 20-month EMA is technically sound
• CVS - broke out above 95 area and has retested, monthly PPO strong
• HRL - another trip below 20 would clearly establish a positive divergence
• DE - gaining strength and momentum, looks to head higher
• LULU - given earnings debacle, I see this one hitting key support near 80
• TTD - volume massive as selling continues, simply looks like a failure
• META - monthly PPO nearing centerline, likely L/T buy from here
• ADBE - I'm calling recent low a bottom here, first test will be 20-month EMA
• KMB - 90-115 is the range until we see which way it breaks
• ORCL - 115 is major long-term price support; upcoming earnings this week
• ABBV - strengthening, rising 20-month EMA should continue to offer support
• MCD - hasn't found bottom yet, but monthly RSI at 40 lowest since 2003
• MKC - bouncing, but 20-month EMA at 60 will be key resistance
• TSCO - oversold bounce underway, 35 is current price and S/T resistance

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed: 

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: None
• Wednesday: LEN ($19 billion)
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, September empire manufacturing survey
• Wednesday: August retail sales, September NAHB housing market index, FOMC policy decision
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August housing starts & building permits, September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, August pending home sales
• Friday: August industrial production & capacity utilization, August leading indicators

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Sep 14: +35.62% (Ex: cumulative gains =
  +7.46% over 53 trading days since 1950. +7.46% x 253/53 = +35.62%)
• Sep 15: -15.42%
• Sep 16: +75.14%
• Sep 17: -59.17%
• Sep 18: +24.46%
• Sep 19: +19.39%
• Sep 20: -48.24%
• Sep 21: -66.86%
• Sep 22: -18.36%
• Sep 23: -48.37%
• Sep 24: -30.23%
• Sep 25: -28.14%
• Sep 26: -57.92%
• Sep 27: +5.43%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Sep 14: +65.92%
• Sep 15: -43.31%
• Sep 16: +37.98%
• Sep 17: -90.41%
• Sep 18: +33.87%
• Sep 19: +93.70%
• Sep 20: -37.69%
• Sep 21: -95.89%
• Sep 22: -56.66%
• Sep 23: -67.66%
• Sep 24: -23.00%
• Sep 25: -32.24%
• Sep 26: -58.92%
• Sep 27: -31.75%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Sep 14: +58.36%
• Sep 15: -34.36%
• Sep 16: +82.55%
• Sep 17: -124.30%
• Sep 18: +75.90%
• Sep 19: +2.34%
• Sep 20: -97.95%
• Sep 21: -172.80%
• Sep 22: -93.93%
• Sep 23: -81.42%
• Sep 24: -51.74%
• Sep 25: -28.38%
• Sep 26: -47.06%
• Sep 27: +29.24%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The likelihood of a rate hike has spiked after inflation reports were released last Thursday and Friday. I don't necessarily see this as a problem, especially in the long-term. However, it's certainly possible that it could provide some anxious moments in the second half of September and into October, especially if there's a definitive break in the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) above 5.00% (it moved to 5.01% briefly this morning)

Here's what I'll be thinking about this week:

Interest Rates. Well, what will the Fed do on Wednesday? And what type of language might we see about the next meeting? Might another rate hike be in order? Wall Street will definitely be watching for clues and so will we.

Seasonality. The second half of September typically produces much worse results than the first half. Today is the 14th. The second worst week of the year is September 21-27, which encompasses ALL of next week.

Max Pain. Monthly options expire this Friday. We sent out our September Max Pain Report earlier, so check out the potential upside/downside for many popular names, including all of the stocks in our Portfolios. Our current Portfolios remain invested throughout the quarter and until November 19th, 2026, but if you trade, you should certainly be aware of max pain levels of stocks that you own to make conscious decisions about risk you're willing to take.

Technical Conditions. The S&P 500 lost 7609.78 support last week, but then subsequently recovered back above that level. The 50-day SMA is currently at 7610.50 and the closing low established last week was 7591.70. The combination of those two levels is the approximate 20-point range where I'd be looking for support.

Happy trading!

Tom