EB Monthly Seasonality Report - August 2025

A Look Back At July Stocks:

Last month, we released our list of the Top 20 stocks that had strong historical track records during the month of July. Here are how they performed in July 2025 (through Friday, July 25th), in order of best to worst performer:

• IQV: +26.38%
• MRNA: +23.78%
• BX: +19.07%
• KKR: +14.38%
• ANET: +11.70%
• CARR: +10.30%
• AMGN: +9.80%
• GNRC: +9.60%
• AMZN: +5.49%
• IDXX: +5.38%
• PYPL: +4.92%
• AAPL: +4.25%
• FITB: +4.16%
• ODFL: +2.95%
• CF: +1.41%
• DASH: +1.38%
• KLAC: +0.71%
• PANW: -0.67%
• MSCI: -5.28%
• ISRG: -8.93%

The percentages represent the returns from the June 30th close to the July 25th close. The average performance of all 20 stocks (+7.04%) was exceptional. Collectively, our July group more than doubled the S&P 500 (+3.12%) and nearly tripled the NASDAQ 100 (+2.67%). Our biggest July winner was Iqvia Holdings, Inc. (IQV), a health care provider ($DJUSHP), while Moderna (MRNA, +23.78%) was a 2nd stock that's gained over 20% during July thus far.

The S&P 500 has seen 9 all-time high closes in July, including every day last week. Much of that strength was led by several of our July seasonal stocks as 17 of the 20 stocks provided ended July 25th in positive territory. 6 gained 10% or more.

S&P 500 August Performance

The annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of August has been mostly uneventful historically. We know that the May through July period has been our best 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years. The worst 3-consecutive-month period over the past 10 years? August-September-October. Check out this seasonal chart on the S&P 500:

We should lower our market expectations over the next few months - at least based upon recent history.

Since 1950, August has produced an annualized return of 0.24% on the S&P 500, which ranks 10th among all calendar months and barely beats out February (+0.04%). Here's a breakdown of strong and weak performance periods throughout August on the S&P 500:

• August 1-3: +4.61%
• August 4-10: -13.35%
• August 11-17: +18.76%
• August 18-28: -5.91%
• August 29-31: +6.42%

There's not a whole lot historically-speaking to get excited about. The only period within August that eclipses the S&P 500's average annual gain of 9% is the August 11th through 17th period. Otherwise, August tends to be subpar.

If I break down August performance by 1st half vs. 2nd half, it's equally unexciting:

• August 1-15: -1.21%
• August 16-31: +1.49%

Meh.

Sector Performance

Technology (XLK) tends to lead the stock market higher over the spring and summer months and 2025 has been no exception as the XLK has been a relative leader off the April low as you can see below:

There's no reason to believe that this relative outperformance in technology won't continue. In fact, over the past decade, the XLK has outperformed the S&P 500 more often in August than any other month:

The average outperformance during August of +1.1% does trail both May and June, however. Still, August is a strong relative performance month for technology and I see nothing technically right now that will change that in August 2025.

Industry Performance

There were a number of industry groups within technology that love the month of July and, as I discussed last month, computer hardware ($DJUSCR) was one of them. In August, there isn't nearly as much across-the-board relative strength in technology. It's narrowly comprised of computer hardware and software ($DJUSSW).

July 2025 has been a good month for the DJUSCR, but not a great month:

While the DJUSCR has seen solid absolute strength in July thus far, its relative strength remains contained below a key relative resistance line. Should that break, then I'd expect much more absolute and relative strength from computer hardware in August. Apple's (AAPL) quarterly earnings, due out on Thursday, July 31st, after the market close, will have a lot to do with the DJUSCR's absolute and relative performance in August.

Here are all industry groups that tend to perform much better than the benchmark S&P 500 during August:

Technology (XLK):

• computer hardware, software

Consumer Discretionary (XLY):

• automobiles, home improvement retailers, apparel retailers, recreational services, travel & tourism

Communication Services (XLC):

• mobile telecommunications

Industrials (XLI):

• defense, waste & disposal services

Financials (XLF):

• mortgage finance, reinsurance, consumer finance, financial administration

Health care (XLV):

• none

Consumer staples (XLP):

• food retailers & wholesalers, nondurable household products, general retailers

Real estate (XLRE):

• none

Utilities (XLU):

• none

Energy (XLE):

• none

Materials (XLB):

• none

Stocks for August

A "Seasonality - August 2025" ChartList (annotated with 1 or 2 support levels to watch) has been created and will be added to our website on Monday.

You must be a StockCharts.com Extra or Pro member to download our ChartLists. Basic members and non-StockCharts.com members can view the charts one at a time.

Happy trading!

Tom