EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, April 21, 2025

Tom Bowley - April 21, 2025

FLASH SALE Reminder

Our FLASH SALE from Saturday morning's event expires at midnight tonight. This is not only a sale for trial members, it can be used by any of our members, so if you want to take advantage of it to extend your membership for one year at $200 off our regular annual price, CLICK HERE.

Live Trading Room

I will be unavailable for our Live Trading Room on Wednesday morning, so we are moving it to tomorrow, Tuesday, April 22nd at 10:00am ET. It will be an abbreviated one-hour session. Hope to see you there!

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Manipulation Spreadsheet
Upcoming Earnings

All of these ChartLists should be available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms.

The Manipulation Spreadsheet has been updated for our 3 primary index ETFs - SPY, QQQ, and IWM. Also updated this morning were AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, AMD, JPM, PLTR, and CLS. I review this Excel file weekly. It is not meant to be updated and studied daily. I wanted to emphasize this, because we have had a few members looking for daily updates. Much of our work is done weekly, so these stocks won't be updated daily. It's more of a macro view of the various ups and downs of our major indices and what the intraday trading behavior might be suggesting.

If you have any questions, please reach out to us at "[email protected]".

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The 2025 bear market is slowly beginning to leave its mark on our long-term, big picture, 100-year S&P 500 chart. I'm not concerned, because all cyclical bear markets leave marks. This long-term chart doesn't confirm a SECULAR bear market until both the monthly PPO and monthly RSI move below zero and below 40, respectively. I know the typical response would be, "but a lot of damage is already done by the time that occurs", which is true. However, this secular warning would come with the knowledge that the market isn't likely coming back and setting new all-time highs for many years. That's the difference.

Now having said that, I do not believe this is the beginning of a long-term secular bear market. I think it's most likely that it lasts until we get more clarity on tariffs, their effect on inflation, the economic picture, and finally, interest rates. Technically, I believe we'll begin to see confirmation of a bottom in place when we see (a) a move and close back above the 20-day EMA on our major indices, and (b) a close on the S&P 500 above 5521. Those are two things I feel are important to confirm secondary signals of a bottom like extreme volatility and other extreme bearish sentiment readings. Emotional and volatile declines like the one we're now experiencing are nearly always resolved by extreme bearish sentiment. Remember, sentiment is a contrarian indicator. We are best served by doing the opposite of the masses during extreme panic and despair.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

I'm continuing to see bullish intraday rotation between the QQQ and SPY. The lower panel (including gaps) has rolled back over, as has the upper panel (excluding gaps). However, the intraday chart showed much more intraday bullish activity prior. Let's see if we get another intraday rally this week on the QQQ vs. the SPY.

IWM:QQQ

The back and forth on this ratio is very difficult to interpret. Overall, I'd say this chart is turning more bullish, especially if we look at the top panel moving up to test multi-month highs. A breakout would add to the bullishness in intraday rotation.

XLY:XLP

That blue-shaded area provides us a great visual of money rotating strongly back towards the more aggressive discretionary area of consumer stocks. The same thing happened in May/June of 2022, which led to me calling a market bottom. Notice that the middle panel shows the XLY:XLP falling if we include gaps. But if we ignore gaps (top panel) and focus only on what happens intraday, the XLY:XLP surged. I interpret this as a very bullish development, though the most important signal of all is price action. An S&P 500 close back above 5521 is what we truly need to become more bullish technically. However, many times these "secondary" signals will provide us bullish clues that are later confirmed by price action.

I cannot come up with a bearish reason for the XLY vs. XLP to be moving up so quickly on an intraday basis.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Options traders have definitely grown a bit more cautious. We had a reading one day last week of .43, which is helping to keep this 5-day SMA down in the low .60s. A couple more bearish days could easily see this 5-day SMA climb back towards .70 or higher.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

I don't have much to add to what I said last week.....

I've had several questions from members, asking about the low 253-day SMA of the CPCE and why that wouldn't suggest that the S&P 500 is poised to move lower, not higher. My response is this. We've seen this 253-day SMA bottom out at .58 twice and in the .40s once. While we could turn here at .60, I don't believe we will. Also, as I mentioned above, the ambiguity of what the CBOE is currently posting on their own site makes me wonder if the CPCE daily figures from CBOE are accurate. It's quite possible that both the 5-day SMA and the 253-day SMA are understated. Also, remember that this signal is just one signal, albeit one that I really favor a lot. We have other sentiment signals that paint a much more bearish picture right now, including both the Volatility Index ($VIX) and consumer sentiment ($$UMCSENT)

Volatility ($VIX)

Here's the current view of the VIX:

I don't normally feature standard technical analysis tools when looking at the VIX, because it doesn't trend long-term. It simply spikes and comes back down, then spikes and comes back down, so there is no trend to follow. That makes support levels somewhat meaningless. However, the VIX did just hold onto a key level that previously had served as resistance. I just wanted to point it out, for what it's worth.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I view their charts currently:

JPM - April shows a successful 20-month EMA test
BA - major long-term support in the 120-125 range that's holding so far
FFIV - solid long-term uptrend, bouncing off 20-month EMA test
MA - another bouncing off 20-month EMA test
GS - 20-month EMA test as well
FDX - remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term broken down; key uptrend line approaching near 180
AAPL - tested 50-month SMA for first time since last trade war
CHRW - successfully testing gap support, now trying to hold onto 50-month SMA
JBHT - has broken down on multiple time frames, would look for bottom in the 110-120 area
STX - recent low may have established Point D in an A-B-C-D-E ascending triangle
HSY - continues its descent, with its trading range now roughly 140-190
DIS - recent drop takes DIS back near price support just below 80
MSCI - uptrend still intact; this year's action has been almost entirely beneath the declining 20-month EMA
SBUX - steady decline since failed breakout, closing in on key price support near 70
KRE - fell below support range from 50.00-52.50, but now back in that range
ED - one of the best stocks of 2025
AJG - few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
NSC - been weak in 2025, but long-term chart remains solid
RHI - steady decline worsening, could we test previous double bottom at 30?
ADM - key support remains from 43-45, long-term uptrend intact
BG - 65-70 support needs to hold, another test of low likely to print positive divergence on weekly chart
CVS - trending higher with support now at rising 20-week EMA
IPG - 4-year support at 23 level now being tested
HRL - support over past 2 years still holding around 27.50
DE - one of the market's better relative performers this year, going against the overall market grain

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

We will likely be adding several growth stocks over the next few months as we've finally seen deep enough selling for many excellent long-term performers to begin adding.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: TSLA ($776 billion), GE ($195 billion), ISRG ($172 billion), LMT ($109 billion)
Wednesday: IBM ($221 billion), NOW ($160 billion), BSX ($141 billion), TXN ($135 billion)
Thursday: GOOGL ($1.84 trillion), PG ($400 billion), PEP ($196 billion), INTC ($83 billion)
Friday: ABBV ($306 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: March leading indicators
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: April PMI composite, March new home sales, beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March durable goods, March existing home sales
Friday: April consumer sentiment (final)

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Apr 21: +37.15%
Apr 22: +0.73%
Apr 23: -6.32%
Apr 24: -19.24%
Apr 25: +20.74%
Apr 26: +15.46%
Apr 27: -0.94%
Apr 28: +2.53%
Apr 29: +39.64%
Apr 30: -17.98%
May 1: +47.07%
May 2: +43.89%
May 3: +22.44%
May 4: +13.45%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Apr 21: +60.62%
Apr 22: +63.30%
Apr 23: -8.77%
Apr 24: -31.97%
Apr 25: +41.77%
Apr 26: -1.07%
Apr 27: +15.06%
Apr 28: +11.63%
Apr 29: +48.66%
Apr 30: -23.19%
May 1: +66.95%
May 2: +64.46%
May 3: -15.32%
May 4: +56.84%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Apr 21: +102.52%
Apr 22: +20.50%
Apr 23: +46.82%
Apr 24: +21.14%
Apr 25: +63.14%
Apr 26: +3.38%
Apr 27: +10.14%
Apr 28: +45.63%
Apr 29: +102.86%
Apr 30: -115.21%
May 1: +25.05%
May 2: +84.28%
May 3: +25.97%
May 4: +71.17%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

We remain in a very wide trading range that spans roughly 700 points on the S&P 500, 4800-4835 support to 5521 resistance. Honestly, anything goes in this trading range. That leaves us with the potential of 450-475 points to the downside and as much as 240 points to the upside. The key for me won't be whether we're up or down this week. Instead, it will be HOW we go down and HOW we go up. Is it more weakness at the opening bell and in the morning, followed up with more bullish action later in the day? If we see lower prices, is it selling all day long or is it concentrated in the afternoon and into the close? The former would be much more bullish longer-term than the latter.

These are a few things I'll be watching this week.

Earnings. It almost feels like the stock market doesn't really care about earnings right now. Either the entire market is moving lower or it's moving higher. Earnings DO matter though and even if the majority of stocks are heading in one direction or the other, a distinguishing feature will continue to be relative strength. We want to look for those stocks that show relative strength vs. their peers.
U.S. Dollar. The dollar (UUP) has been under steady downward pressure for over 3 months now. It's been a drop of 10% during this short period, which has a lot folks very nervous. Perspective, however, tells us that the dollar is getting very close to where it was in September 2024. Many seem to forget that the dollar rose more than 11% from late-September through January 13th. This latest decline simply takes us back to where we were. Personally, I believe it's the Fed's flip-flopping that led to the rise and fall of the dollar over the past 6 months.
Economic News. It's light this week. Those looking for economic clarity won't get much this week. We do have a couple key housing data out with new home and existing home sales, but there's not much more to focus on.
Short-term Technical Support. Earlier, I pointed out the critical price support closer to 4800. However, just 6 trading days ago, we dropped to 432.63 on the QQQ - that was after the massive 12% gain we enjoyed on the heels of the 90-day pause in tariffs. That's the critical short-term support, which was was lost earlier today when the QQQ fell to 427.93. We've since bounced and we're back near 432.00 as I write this. Losing that 432.65 support level could lead to a much larger decline and possibly a retest of the April 7th low of 402.39.

Happy trading!

Tom