EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, June 9, 2025

Tom Bowley - June 09, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)**
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Manipulation Spreadsheet
Upcoming Earnings & Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength

** I made a recent change on the RGCL. If you look at the list of companies on it, you'll see that stocks like MTZ show an asterisk before and after its ticker symbol. These companies all raised guidance for both revenues and EPS in the upcoming quarter, as well as raised guidance for both revenues and EPS in the coming year. Many companies are included on the RGCL for simply raising revenue guidance or EPS in an upcoming quarter OR year. To raise guidance for both revenues and EPS in both the upcoming quarter and upcoming year shows more confidence in their business strategy, in my opinion. I'm not endorsing these stocks as "better" or anything like that. I just feel it's important to begin differentiating those companies that significantly raise guidance like that.

The ChartLists should be available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms.

The Manipulation Spreadsheet has been updated for our 3 primary index ETFs - SPY, QQQ, and IWM and our 12 individual stocks - AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, NFLX, AMD, JPM, PLTR, and CLS. I review this Excel file weekly. It is not meant to be updated and studied daily.

If you have any questions, please reach out to us at "[email protected]".

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

We're seeing the market grow more and more complacent every day. On the surface, you might think that is bearish. However, after a period of severe volatility, the move back to complacency is a signal to me that the worst is behind us - in terms of selling.

At this point, the only question I have is whether we hesitate and consolidate before we close at another all-time high above 6144. I'm beginning to have my doubts. Our major indices seem to want higher prices.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

We saw a lot of bullish rotation from the more value-oriented S&P to the more growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 for nearly two months off the April bottom. That has seemingly come to an end as more consolidation is now taking place. That's not necessarily reason for concern. Think about a stock that goes straight up, then consolidates in a bullish continuation pattern. I believe the QQQ:SPY intraday ratio could be setting up in similar fashion. Also, keep in mind that any one secondary chart that I follow doesn't carry significant weight. When secondary signals provide more neutral-type, or even bearish, signals, we need to see other corroborating signals. I will not back off my bullish stance due to one or two secondary signals. It's a jigsaw puzzle that requires many pieces lining up together.

IWM:QQQ

Last week was quite bullish for the small cap IWM. First of all, and most importantly, the IWM saw a very significant breakout above 211. This was the breakout confirmation of a bullish reversing head & shoulders bottoming pattern. Also, we've seen a strengthening IWM:QQQ intraday relationship off the double-bottom test in mid February and again in mid May. This is a START, but it would require a relative breakout above the early-April high. Moving a bit higher and clearing the relative high from January would be very bullish.

XLY:XLP

We saw a straight-up move in the intraday XLY:XLP relative ratio since mid March. Pausing here for a bit should not be viewed bearishly. In fact, I'll be watching to see if this relative ratio turns higher again after possibly testing the 95-96 level. That would be a reasonable measurement of the relative double top breakdown.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The short-term top in mid May has now been cleared, potentially opening the door to more bullishness on the S&P 500 ahead. Remember two things here. First, overbought can become more overbought. Second, over time, the low 5-day SMA readings of the CPCE has not been nearly as effective at calling tops as the high 5-day SMA readings have been at calling bottoms.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

The most bullish stock market action, historically, has occurred when this 253-day SMA of the CPCE has been in steady decline, which is where we remain. We don't know where this will bottom and turn higher. I won't try to predict where it will turn, but when it does, we should begin to grow a bit more skeptical of this current secular bull market advance.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked one week ago:

JPM - working its way back to all-time high
BA - there's a decent chance BA has bottomed long-term; AD line is moving up with price now
FFIV - very bullish action above its 20-month SMA
MA - very steady and bullish long-term performer
GS - trending higher above 20-month EMA
FDX - double top established near 300-310, key uptrend line support approaching near 180
AAPL - monthly RSI at 50, which has been an excellent time to buy AAPL over the past two decades
CHRW - remains in multi-decade uptrend
JBHT - 110-120 area was excellent support/resistance range in 2018-2020; we recently approached it again
STX - broke out of A-B-C-D-E ascending triangle, with long-term measurement to roughly 175-180
HSY - still trending down with excellent price support near 140
DIS - held 80 support once again in April, now looking for key breakout above 125
MSCI - long-term consolidation since 2021 high is bullish, but need breakout above 650 level
SBUX - in lower end of 4-5 year trading range, excellent entry here from a long-term perspective
KRE - has bounced nicely from April washout low
ED - has been a solid income-producer and investment since the financial crisis low in 2009
AJG - few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
NSC - long-term cup with handle pattern? Breakout above 280 would confirm and measure to 380
RHI - rough trading in 2025, massive support at 30, should it get that far
ADM - continues to trade above long-term price support in low 40s
BG - multiple price support tests near 70 in 2025
CVS - excellent support at 45 or just below, just failed on bounce at 50-month SMA at 72
IPG - monthly RSI now at 37 and also testing 4-year price support near 22.50
HRL - long-term price support at 25 and stock now showing positive divergence on monthly chart - bullish
DE - one of the better 2025 momentum stocks on this list

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: ORCL ($479 billion)
Thursday: ADBE ($177 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: April wholesale inventories
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: May CPI
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, May PPI
Friday: June consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jun 9: -63.85%
Jun 10: +10.30%
Jun 11: -16.37%
Jun 12: +10.42%
Jun 13: +11.80%
Jun 14: -12.52%
Jun 15: +18.27%
Jun 16: +23.94%
Jun 17: +18.36%
Jun 18: -22.47%
Jun 19: -13.07%
Jun 20: -23.59%
Jun 21: +13.57%
Jun 22: -25.23%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jun 9: -49.37%
Jun 10: -4.79%
Jun 11: -65.22%
Jun 12: +6.56%
Jun 13: +0.38%
Jun 14: -22.67%
Jun 15: +45.66%
Jun 16: +55.20%
Jun 17: +29.51%
Jun 18: -55.29%
Jun 19: +31.68%
Jun 20: -46.79%
Jun 21: +16.55%
Jun 22: -33.43%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jun 9: -63.05%
Jun 10: -52.33%
Jun 11: -160.32%
Jun 12: -18.32%
Jun 13: -29.90%
Jun 14: -40.88%
Jun 15: +84.42%
Jun 16: +10.36%
Jun 17: +19.80%
Jun 18: -34.90%
Jun 19: -8.37%
Jun 20: -69.95%
Jun 21: +30.23%
Jun 22: -75.31%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The S&P 500 closed above 6000 on Friday for the first time since February 21st. It's tacking on further gains today - at least as of 1:20pm ET. Sustainability ratios, for the most part, are supporting this advance and suggesting that it's likely we're going to see additional gains in the near-term. I understand that stock market history since 1950 doesn't necessarily support higher prices this month, but remember technical price action always trumps seasonality.

Here are a few things I'm watching this week:

Inflation. Many market pundits have suggested that we're going to see higher inflation as a result of tariffs. Fed Chief Jerome Powell has made similar comments, holding the fed funds rate steady until, in his mind, the inflation picture is clearer. Tariffs became a "thing" back in January and we've yet to see any significant impact of tariffs on inflation. May CPI and PPI will be out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, so the bears have another chance.
History. Now that we've moved past the first week of June, which has historically been quite bullish for U.S. equities, do seasonal headwinds start to flare up? Not much has been able to deter buyers since that April 7th low.
Small Caps. I've been waiting for more bullish developments in small caps and we've begun to see them. The small cap IWM cleared what appears to me to be very significant neckline resistance in a bottoming head & shoulders pattern at 211. This pattern shows a measurement of 38 points, which would take the IWM near 250 and to all-time highs. Another weak CPI report with Core CPI falling below expectations could be a catalyst for a significant move higher this week. Obviously, the opposite is true as well, highlighting the importance of inflation reports this week.
Technical Price Action. There's been little let up in the current secular bull market advance. I've spent a lot of time discussing why we don't want to bet against a bull market rally and, in the rear view mirror, I believe it's quite obvious now. The most significant short-term support level to watch is the rising 20-day EMA. Until we close beneath that moving average across all of our major indices, I cannot imagine wanting to bet against U.S. stocks.

Happy trading!

Tom