EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, July 7, 2025

Tom Bowley - July 07, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Leading Stocks (LSCL)
July Seasonality (SEASCL)
Manipulation Spreadsheet*

*I am working on this spreadsheet today and will have it available by Tuesday morning.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

If you're a long-term investor, stepping back and looking at the stock market using this 100-year chart enables you to avoid pulling unnecessary sell triggers, because of the media, permabears, negative nellie's, and all the "news" out there. The above chart never once flashed anything remotely signaling a sell signal and now, here we are, back at all-time highs. Simply put, it filters out all the noise that we hear on a day-to-day basis and keeps our wits about us.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The relative intraday action in the QQQ:SPY ratio hit a 6-week low last week before rallying into the end of the week. Still, there has been a bit of deterioration that I'm paying attention to, but nothing that I'm overly concerned about. It would make sense for this ratio to pull back a bit during overall market consolidation or short-term selling.

IWM:QQQ

Last week, I suggested that this IWM:QQQ intraday ratio should begin to show improvement if a rate cut was on the horizon. Almost right on cue, this ratio improved last week, having one of its best weeks of 2025. If that continues, the odds of a rate cut grow, in my opinion.

XLY:XLP

There is nothing that would excite me more about the stock market direction than to see this XLY:XLP intraday ratio break out again. Currently, it's consolidating, which isn't horrible, but I'm watching to see its next significant move.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. We have seen options traders grow quite complacent in recent days as all-time highs seem to print every day. While I remain very bullish the overall market action and believe we're going to be setting more all-time highs during the summer, I also don't want to ignore the increasing risk of a short-term pullback given the low 5-day SMA reading above. It's a warning sign, but not a signal that we'll see deep selling.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. Look at the above chart. When the 253-day SMA is moving lower like it is now, it accompanies our most bullish S&P 500 moves. When the short-term 5-day SMA signal turns bearish, like it has now, it's a good idea to remind ourselves that the longer-term picture still remains quite bullish based on this longer-term sentiment indicator.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked two weeks ago:

JPM - challenging all-time high
BA - substantial improvement, would like to see 185-190 support hold
FFIV - very bullish action above its 20-month SMA
MA - very steady and bullish long-term performer
GS - trending higher above 20-month EMA
FDX - trying to clear falling 20-week EMA
AAPL - monthly RSI at 50, which has been an excellent time to buy AAPL over the past two decades
CHRW - 85-90 is solid longer-term support
JBHT - would like to see 120-125 support hold
STX - long-term breakout in play, excellent trade
HSY - breaking above 175 would be intermediate-term bullish
DIS - now testing key price resistance in 120-125 range
MSCI - monthly RSI hanging near 50, solid entry
SBUX - moved back above 50-week EMA, short-term bullish
KRE - long-term uptrend remains in play
ED - has been a solid income-producer and investment since the financial crisis low in 2009
AJG - few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
NSC - continues to sideways consolidate in very bullish fashion
RHI - trending down with potential sight set on 30
ADM - looks to be reversing higher off long-term price support near 43
BG - 65-70 price support held, now looking to clear 50-week SMA to the upside
CVS - excellent support at 45 or just below, just failed on bounce at 50-month SMA at 72
IPG - monthly RSI now at 37 and also testing 4-year price support near 22.50
HRL - long-term price support at 25 and stock now showing positive divergence on monthly chart - bullish
DE - one of the better 2025 momentum stocks on this list

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: DAL ($33 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: May wholesale inventories, FOMC minutes
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: None

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jul 7: +17.62%
Jul 8: -16.29%
Jul 9: +76.54%
Jul 10: -16.59%
Jul 11: +13.23%
Jul 12: +36.89%
Jul 13: -5.67%
Jul 14: +60.75%
Jul 15: +17.84%
Jul 16: +8.78%
Jul 17: +14.85%
Jul 18: -30.66%
Jul 19: +2.72%
Jul 20: -3.71%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jul 7: +60.19%
Jul 8: -10.10%
Jul 9: +86.44%
Jul 10: -27.94%
Jul 11: +11.18%
Jul 12: +128.28%
Jul 13: +61.52%
Jul 14: +72.46%
Jul 15: +47.86%
Jul 16: -17.18%
Jul 17: +49.41%
Jul 18: -56.47%
Jul 19: -13.47%
Jul 20: +22.38%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jul 7: +43.95%
Jul 8: +37.24%
Jul 9: +31.88%
Jul 10: -17.39%
Jul 11: +29.75%
Jul 12: +89.15%
Jul 13: +63.13%
Jul 14: -1.06%
Jul 15: +91.81%
Jul 16: -55.67%
Jul 17: +6.82%
Jul 18: -51.12%
Jul 19: +20.86%
Jul 20: +25.11%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

The bulls may be tested this week as earnings season doesn't really kick in until next week and there are almost no economic reports out this week. That means much more attention will likely be paid to tariffs and the July 9 deadline. If we know one thing about the tariffs, it's that when they've been center stage, U.S. stocks have struggled. I don't know what tariff news we'll see this week, but traders will need to remain on their toes as I believe sudden market shifts could become the norm this week as news hits the wires.

Here are a few things I'll be watching this week:

Technical Price Action. We've been setting all-time highs and my sustainability ratios are, for the most part, supporting this rally and suggesting we're going higher. Therefore, it'll be important to see how stocks behave when/if key rising 20-day EMAs are tested.
Sector Performance. Sector rotation can tell us a lot about advances and selloffs. For instance, the S&P 500 is down today, but the technology sector (XLK) is slightly outperforming that benchmark index. I don't mind selloffs when there is no concerted effort to abandon growth stocks.
10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX). The 10-year treasury yield had been declining for the past several weeks, but reversed back to the upside on Friday after the nonfarm payroll numbers were released. The TNX is up another 4 basis points today as money rotates away from treasuries for the 2nd straight day. Short-term, I think we're range bound between 4.20% and 4.52%. At last check, we were at 4.39%.

Happy trading!

Tom