EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 15, 2025

Tom Bowley - September 15, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

ChartLists were not updated over the weekend as I was traveling back from StockCharts.com and also because it was a very light week of earnings last week. All ChartLists will be updated this weekend. The key manipulation spreadsheet was updated through last Friday

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The overall market performance remains quite solid, especially considering the time of the year. I would simply further caution everyone from expecting too much from the stock market, especially during the notably weak historical tendencies during the second half of September.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

This ratio continues to drift lower, which I would say is slightly bearish. It would be much more bearish if we had a number of other key signals that corroborated the bearish tone here, but we don't.

IWM:QQQ

The rotation into small caps remains quite bullish. The IWM did hit overhead resistance in the 240-241 area, but I believe it's only a matter of time before we clear this level and hit our bottoming head & shoulders pattern target closer to 250.

XLY:XLP

More than any other signal, the blue-shaded area above and to the right of each panel screams RISK ON and suggests that new all-time highs in the S&P 500 are sustainable and that we should NOT be looking for any type of major selloff ahead, despite the knowledge that the 2nd half of September can be very weak historically. Current technical conditions ALWAYS trump historical tendencies. Notice how the XLY vs. XLP ratio was completely falling apart back in late January and early February (red-shaded areas)? This is a sign that Wall Street is growing more cautious and moving into the defensive side of consumer stocks. In my experience, when the S&P 500 is moving UP and the XLY:XLP ratio is moving up simultaneously, it doesn't pay to be bearish.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. This sentiment indicator is parked in neutral territory, providing us little in the way of directional clues.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. I've received several member emails over the past few months, pointing out that this indicator has moved down to levels where it's bottomed in the past, so shouldn't I be preparing for major market reversal. If you have this question, let me make a couple points. First, this isn't a security price chart. It's simply one way to track sentiment. A reversal back higher would be noteworthy, but it wouldn't necessarily suggest a major top had formed. Second, prior bottoms in this 253-day SMA have not always resulted in sudden and massive moves in equity prices to the downside. It simply makes it more difficult for the S&P 500 to move appreciably higher.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks look on a long-term weekly chart:

JPM – yet another breakout to an all-time high
BA – has pulled back for an initial 20-week EMA test, great time for entry
FFIV – been strengthening throughout 2025
MA – uptrend remains perfectly intact
GS – remains overbought, but setting new all-time highs almost daily
FDX – consolidating beneath its 20-week EMA and 50-week SMA; earnings on deck this week
AAPL – clearly in uptrend again
CHRW – buying has not let up since breaking out in late July
JBHT – remains in 2025 downtrend, 122-125 support zone will need to hold on further selling
STX - long-term breakout in May has sent stock soaring
HSY – has improved in 2025, but clearing 200 price resistance is the next step
DIS – another on the improve, but needing a breakout above 125
MSCI – nearing a 6-month high, watch for 654 breakout level
SBUX - weakening again with key price support in 70-75 range
KRE – remains in nice uptrend; should benefit from future rate cuts
ED – long-term uptrend intact
AJG – first breakdown in years occurred in July, then failed on attempt to clear declining moving averages
NSC – showing excellent relative strength vs. its lackluster railroad peers
RHI – near a 5-year low, searching for support in 28-30 zone
ADM – has improved considerably, but really needs to clear 65 price and moving average resistance
BG – still trying to clear its big hurdle at declining 20-week EMA
CVS – has rallied back to test 75 resistance. Can it break out?
IPG – holding 22.50 price support while trending below 20-week EMA, work to do
HRL - big breakdown beneath 27.50, now must hold 2017 support near 25
DE – remains in very bullish long-term uptrend

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: FERG ($45 billion)
Wednesday: GIS ($27 billion)
Thursday: FDX ($54 billion), LEN ($36 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: September empire state manufacturing index
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins, August retail sales, August industrial production & capacity utilization, July business inventories, September housing market index
Wednesday: August housing starts & building permits, FOMC announcement
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, August leading indicators
Friday: None

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 15: -17.96% (Ex: cumulative gains = -3.76% over 53 trading days since 1950. -3.76% x 253/53 = -17.96%)
Sep 16: +77.18%
Sep 17: -59.84%
Sep 18: +22.64%
Sep 19: +17.42%
Sep 20: -48.24%
Sep 21: -66.86%
Sep 22: -20.86%
Sep 23: -46.62%
Sep 24: -29.45%
Sep 25: -26.24%
Sep 26: -61.76%
Sep 27: +5.43%
Sep 28: +67.63%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 15: -50.69%
Sep 16: +39.42%
Sep 17: -90.62%
Sep 18: +28.49%
Sep 19: +91.46%
Sep 20: -37.69%
Sep 21: -95.89%
Sep 22: -62.95%
Sep 23: -63.15%
Sep 24: -21.38%
Sep 25: -29.74%
Sep 26: -63.42%
Sep 27: -31.75%
Sep 28: +57.82%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 15: -35.64%
Sep 16: +85.61%
Sep 17: -129.09%
Sep 18: +78.72%
Sep 19: +2.42%
Sep 20: -97.95%
Sep 21: -172.80%
Sep 22: -97.41%
Sep 23: -84.44%
Sep 24: -53.73%
Sep 25: -29.43%
Sep 26: -48.80%
Sep 27: +29.24%
Sep 28: +78.91%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

U.S. stocks did it again. They moved to fresh all-time highs last week in the wake of inflation reports that were tame, or at least "tame enough". While we always must remain on guard in September, I'm not at all surprised that prices keep rising. First, remember that historical September weakness normally plays out during the second half of the month, not the first half. Second, money keeps pouring into the more aggressive consumer discretionary (XLY) area on a relative basis vs. their staples (XLP) counterparts. That's generally a sign that a rally in our benchmark S&P 500 is sustainable. Here are a few things that I'm thinking about this week as we move into the second half of September:
Interest Rates. The Fed meets tomorrow and Wednesday and will likely announce an interest rate cut of 25 basis points at 2pm ET on Wednesday. That's what market participants are expecting. Still, volatility ($VIX) could very well surge. A cut of 50 basis points would likely spur much more buying, at least short-term, while a decision to leave rates unchanged would likely spark a very significant short-term selloff as traders would completely lose confidence in the Fed. Market participants will also be listening to see if Fed Chief Powell suggests that further rate cuts are likely or will be considered. There is a VERY REAL chance that we see a "sell on the news" environment after a rate cut, as prices have been spiraling higher in anticipation of a rate cut.

Technical Conditions. Listen, price action couldn't be much more bullish. We've seen new all-time closing highs across all of our major indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, etc. Since the mid-August all-time high on the S&P 500, we've charged higher and higher to new all-time highs and last month's sector leadership looks like this:

Seasonality. Scroll back up and check out the annualized returns on our major indices over the course of the next two weeks. It's choppy this week, but the 20th through the 26th shows negative annualized returns for EVERY day on EVERY index. It is truly one of the most bearish weeks that we face throughout the calendar year. The good news is that we're approaching this time on the calendar with a very strong technical outlook and few warning signs of any sort of impending long-term market top. This combination suggests TO ME that long-term buy and holders should stick with this market on the long side, despite the bearish historical tendencies. Of course, that decision ultimately comes down to each person. From a short-term trading perspective, I'll build more cash during this period and there is NO WAY I'd be leveraging on the long side with a triple ETF. If I miss out on some short-term gains and opportunities, so be it. Preserving trading capital is always JOB #1 for me.

Happy trading!

Tom