EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 22, 2025

Tom Bowley - September 22, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stock (LSCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The overall market performance remains quite solid, especially considering the time of the year. I would simply further caution everyone from expecting too much from the stock market, especially during the notably weak historical tendencies during the second half of September.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The middle panel (including gaps) is showing a rapidly-rising ratio, while the top panel (excluding gaps) is showing a declining ratio. What this tells us is that the QQQ is seeing excellent relative strength at the opening bell, but not during the trading day. Individual stocks on the NASDAQ 100 with falling AD lines would likely be stocks I'd consider avoiding, based upon how these two panels appear.

IWM:QQQ

This ratio set a new high on Thursday on an intraday basis. Since then, there's been a shift back towards growth stocks, but I don't believe that'll continue. Still, having exposure to the QQQ, SPY, and IWM makes a lot of sense to me, though everyone must make that decision on his/her own.

XLY:XLP

The blue-shaded area tells us essentially all we need to know about the stock market. This ratio is clear evidence that the big Wall Street firms prefer the more aggressive consumer discretionary group (XLY) vs. its consumer staples counterparts (XLP). There is a VERY strong positive correlation between the direction of this XLY:XLP ratio and the direction of the benchmark S&P 500. I believe the uptrend here reflects the high likelihood that the S&P 500 is going higher in Q4, not lower. I say this, knowing that we do tend to see historical weakness this week.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.
Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. We have once again moved below a 5-day average of .55, which indicates that we could be "toppy" from a short-term perspective. Still, you can see recent "toppy" signals (red arrows) haven't exactly proven to be 100% reliable. Should we see a top, I expect any selling to be very short-lived. As earnings season starts in mid-October, I believe we'll be in the midst of more all-time highs. 7000 on the S&P 500 is right around the corner in Q4.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. The above chart suggests the secular bull market rally off of the April low has legs to run further. When this 253-day ratio is falling, it historically accompanies a rising S&P 500 and now is no different.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of last week:

JPM – consolidating the past several weeks, remains bullish
BA – currently in an uptrend, I’m expecting a move to 270-280
FFIV – is in all-time high territory
MA – same, in all-time high territory
GS – very bullish long-term chart, though somewhat overbought
FDX – trending below its 20-month EMA and 50-month SMA, needs to clear both to the upside
AAPL – recently discussed importance of RSI 50 on monthly chart, now back in uptrend
CHRW – huge July move higher, followed by more buying in August – to all-time highs
JBHT – remains in 2025 downtrend, I’m expecting April low to hold on any further weakness
STX - long-term breakout in May has sent stock soaring
HSY – has improved significantly, but needs to clear price resistance at 200
DIS – another on the improve, but needing a breakout above 125
MSCI – slow and steady advance, watch for 654 breakout level
SBUX - remains squarely in the middle of a wide consolidation range between roughly 70 and 115
KRE – remains in nice uptrend; should benefit from future rate cuts
ED – trading above its rising 20-month EMA
AJG – successfully testing its rising 20-month EMA
NSC – could be breaking out of long-term cup with handle, measuring to 380
RHI – very, very weak, with tons of price support at 30 and just below
ADM – clearing its 20-month EMA for first time in two years
BG – its primary short-term hurdle is clearing its declining 20-month EMA
CVS – move back above 75 is what the bulls would like to see
IPG – bouncing off 22.50 price support
HRL - the last 18 months have been spent in a fairly narrow 27-35 range
DE – dropped a bit with earnings recently, but remains in very bullish long-term uptrend

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: MU ($189 billion), AZO ($69 billion)
Wednesday: CTAS ($80 billion)
Thursday: COST ($422 billion), ACN ($150 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: August new home sales
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP (Final), August durable goods, August wholesale inventories, August existing home sales
Friday: August personal income & spending, September consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 15: -17.96% (Ex: cumulative gains = -3.76% over 53 trading days since 1950. -3.76% x 253/53 =-17.96%)
Sep 16: +77.18%
Sep 17: -59.84%
Sep 18: +22.64%
Sep 19: +17.42%
Sep 20: -48.24%
Sep 21: -66.86%
Sep 22: -20.86%
Sep 23: -46.62%
Sep 24: -29.45%
Sep 25: -26.24%
Sep 26: -61.76%
Sep 27: +5.43%
Sep 28: +67.63%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 15: -50.69%
Sep 16: +39.42%
Sep 17: -90.62%
Sep 18: +28.49%
Sep 19: +91.46%
Sep 20: -37.69%
Sep 21: -95.89%
Sep 22: -62.95%
Sep 23: -63.15%
Sep 24: -21.38%
Sep 25: -29.74%
Sep 26: -63.42%
Sep 27: -31.75%
Sep 28: +57.82%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 15: -35.64%
Sep 16: +85.61%
Sep 17: -129.09%
Sep 18: +78.72%
Sep 19: +2.42%
Sep 20: -97.95%
Sep 21: -172.80%
Sep 22: -97.41%
Sep 23: -84.44%
Sep 24: -53.73%
Sep 25: -29.43%
Sep 26: -48.80%
Sep 27: +29.24%
Sep 28: +78.91%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

It was another strong week for U.S. stocks last week as the Federal Reserve ended its interest rate "pause", cutting the fed funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday afternoon. We saw an immediate pop to the upside in most equities, though the initial move higher was stronger in key rate-sensitive areas like small caps, regional banks, homebuilders, etc. That initial strength did waver, though, and money rotated more towards growth stocks by week's end as nearly all of our key indices set fresh all-time highs at some point after that Fed announcement on Wednesday. Here are a few thoughts as we look into the week ahead:

Inflation. Last week showed that August inflation was mostly benign, especially at the producer price level, where negative readings came in on both a headline and core basis. On Friday of this week, we'll get the latest Core PCE price index as part of the August personal income & spending report.
Earnings. We're still a few weeks away from the start of Q3 earnings season, but we will get one key semiconductor earnings report (MU) and one that should provide us a compass into consumer spending (COST).

Technical Conditions. It's very difficult to be bearish right now, given such "on the surface" and "below the surface" bullish signals. While the current uptrend is indisputable, I'd further argue that our sustainability ratios suggest much more market strength ahead. U.S. stocks very much appear to be under constant accumulation as traders look ahead to a strengthening economy, rising profits, and lower interest rates.

Seasonality. This is honestly about the only thing that makes me pause right now in terms of my bullishness. I know this week, in particular, is a very bearish week historically. It doesn't mean we see lower prices this week every year, but the tendency for prices to move lower is quite apparent. I would avoid aggressively-bullish strategies like 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs, but I certainly wouldn't blame anyone wanting to remain long.

Happy trading!
Tom