EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, September 29, 2025

Tom Bowley - September 29, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stock (LSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated on our website. The Hot Stocks ChartList (HTCL) is a new ChartList at EarningsBeats.com. It was created by our very own Matt Townsend, who employs a number of momentum strategies in identifying what he believes are 20 very hot momentum stocks. His strategy is to hold onto these stocks as long as the momentum remains. You can read more about this new feature under "ChartLists" on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

There's a lot to like here from a long-term perspective. When you get nervous in the near-term about whether to buy, sell, or hold, I believe this is a very comforting chart that tells us to hold through just about everything. Of course, I'm speaking from a long-term investor's perspective, not a trader's.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The middle panel (including gaps) is showing a rapidly-rising ratio, while the top panel (excluding gaps) is showing a declining ratio. There hasn't been much change in this chart over the past few months. The bottom panel shows that the QQQ:SPY is challenging multi-year highs, while the top panel shows mostly a downtrending relative intraday line. It indicates that the SPY is seeing more intraday strength and buying, which shouldn't be too all surprising given that value stocks do tend to perform better on a relative basis during Q4.

IWM:QQQ

I like all of the ETFs that track our major indices - DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY. However, the IWM is remaining fairly strong, especially on an intraday basis (top panel above). As long as the IWM (bottom panel) is rising and the IWM is holding its own vs. the QQQ on a relative intraday basis, I'll prefer to overweight the IWM.

XLY:XLP

Those big blue-shaded areas above continue to say it all. I believe the XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important intermarket relationships to follow and it currently supports higher prices on the S&P 500 into year end.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. We remain very low and below a 5-day average of .55, which indicates that we could be "toppy" from a short-term perspective. We did top last week, though it's difficult to say how long any period of selling and/or consolidation might last. Again, this potential topping signal is for short-term purposes only.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. The above chart suggests the secular bull market rally off of the April low has legs to run further. When this 253-day ratio is falling, it historically accompanies a rising S&P 500 and now is no different.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of two weeks ago:

JPM – consolidating the past several weeks, remains bullish
BA – currently in an uptrend, I’m expecting a move to 270-280
FFIV – is in all-time high territory
MA – same, in all-time high territory
GS – very bullish long-term chart, though somewhat overbought
FDX – trending below its 20-month EMA and 50-month SMA, needs to clear both to the upside
AAPL – recently discussed importance of RSI 50 on monthly chart, now back in uptrend
CHRW – huge July move higher, followed by more buying in August – to all-time highs
JBHT – remains in 2025 downtrend, I’m expecting April low to hold on any further weakness
STX - long-term breakout in May has sent stock soaring
HSY – has improved significantly, but needs to clear price resistance at 200
DIS – another on the improve, but needing a breakout above 125
MSCI – slow and steady advance, watch for 654 breakout level
SBUX - remains squarely in the middle of a wide consolidation range between roughly 70 and 115
KRE – remains in nice uptrend; should benefit from future rate cuts
ED – trading above its rising 20-month EMA
AJG – successfully testing its rising 20-month EMA
NSC – could be breaking out of long-term cup with handle, measuring to 380
RHI – very, very weak, with tons of price support at 30 and just below
ADM – clearing its 20-month EMA for first time in two years
BG – its primary short-term hurdle is clearing its declining 20-month EMA
CVS – move back above 75 is what the bulls would like to see
IPG – bouncing off 22.50 price support
HRL - the last 18 months have been spent in a fairly narrow 27-35 range
DE – dropped a bit with earnings recently, but remains in very bullish long-term uptrend

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: CCL ($36 billion)
Tuesday: NKE ($102 billion), PAYX ($46 billion)
Wednesday: None
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: August pending home sales
Tuesday: July Case-Shiller home price index, July FHFA house price index, September Chicago PMI, September consumer confidence, August JOLTS
Wednesday: September ADP employment report, September PMI manufacturing, September ISM manufacturing, August construction spending
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, August factory orders
Friday: September nonfarm payrolls, September ISM services

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Sep 29: -89.54% (Ex: cumulative gains = -18.76% over 53 trading days since 1950. -18.76% x 253/53 =-89.54%)
Sep 30: -21.54%
Oct 1: +53.13%
Oct 2: +38.79%
Oct 3: -11.27%
Oct 4: +45.76%
Oct 5: +66.17%
Oct 6: +35.15%
Oct 7: -35.61%
Oct 8: +6.60%
Oct 9: -60.94%
Oct 10: +10.99%
Oct 11: +28.18%
Oct 12: +10.11%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Sep 29: -99.36%
Sep 30: +1.39%
Oct 1: +15.57%
Oct 2: -44.05%
Oct 3: -7.68%
Oct 4: +57.17%
Oct 5: +41.24%
Oct 6: +0.80%
Oct 7: -79.06%
Oct 8: +3.65%
Oct 9: -50.30%
Oct 10: +15.02%
Oct 11: +79.53%
Oct 12: +38.25%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Sep 29: -50.10%
Sep 30: +47.01%
Oct 1: -30.47%
Oct 2: -74.74%
Oct 3: -82.76%
Oct 4: +85.41%
Oct 5: +31.68%
Oct 6: -24.21%
Oct 7: -162.09%
Oct 8: -66.42%
Oct 9: -144.18%
Oct 10: +101.81%
Oct 11: +30.34%
Oct 12: +8.61%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Last week represented the 2nd worst week of the year historically and it didn't disappoint as it produced some selling mid week that took our major indices down to test rising 20-day EMAs for the first time since the start of September. Selling was a bit heavier in key growth areas like internet ($DJUSNS), which fell every day last week, before finally bouncing a bit this morning. Here are a few thoughts as we look into the week ahead:

Jobs. On Friday, we'll get the September nonfarm payrolls data. Currently, the consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls is 50,000, up slightly from the October level of 22,000. If the estimate is correct, it would mark the 5th consecutive jobs number under 100,000. Some might claim the economy is strong and/or resilient, but there's no doubt in mind that we're teetering on more significant weakness. Once the economy rolls over, it's not easy to "right the ship". That's why the Federal Reserve is being proactive and cutting the fed funds rate.

Earnings. We have two more weeks before the start of Q3 earnings season, but this is the time we could see pre-earnings runs in many leading stocks.

Technical Conditions. Last week marked key 20-day EMA tests for many growth areas and they were successful, at least for now. I would not expect prices to keep rising continually and consistently through year end, but I also would not expect to see any type of major selloff. I believe our "worst case" short-term selling might be 5-6%, but I'm actually looking for any selling to be milder than that.

Seasonality. We are now moving away from the seasonally-weak month of September, especially the second half of September, where action has been notoriously weak. While October certainly represents brightening seasonal skies, the most bullish period of the year doesn't begin until the close on October 27th (and runs through January 18th).

Happy trading!
Tom