EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, October 13, 2025

Tom Bowley - October 13, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stock (LSCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated on our website. The Hot Stocks ChartList (HTCL) is a new ChartList at EarningsBeats.com. It was created by our very own Matt Townsend, who employs a number of momentum strategies in identifying what he believes are 20 very hot momentum stocks. His strategy is to hold onto these stocks as long as the momentum remains. You can read more about this new feature under "ChartLists" on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I received a number of questions after Friday's selloff as to whether anything has changed in my view. My answer is no. We're going to have short-term issues from time to time, there's no changing that. I literally talked about escalating short-term risk on Thursday, the day before the selling kicked in. In my opinion, any weakness we encounter near-term will be contained to the short-term. I believe the worst-case scenario is a 10% correction, with the S&P 500 dropping to 6000-ish. I don't think the selling will go that far, however. Stock market valuations are likely heading higher with profits rising and interest rates declining. A better support level to watch will be the rising 20-WEEK EMA, now that we've lost the 20-day EMA.

After a huge advance off the early-April low, a period of selling and/or consolidation should be viewed as healthy. One day's selling does NOT make a bear market more likely. My long-term signals remain clearly bullish at this time. We're also two weeks away from the start of the most bullish seasonal period of the year. I can only give you my opinion and you need to understand that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor, but I believe long-term investors should stay the course, despite any short-term weakness. Traders, should use any period of weakness to accumulate favorite stocks for what should be another year end rally.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

The intraday relative weakness seems to support the Wall Street's preference for value stocks. When I say "value", I don't mean "defensive". Rather, I'm looking at more aggressive, dividend payers found in areas like financials and industrials. Perhaps some areas of health care. Growth has held up fairly well, but October and November usually set up for more rotation into those dividend payers.

IWM:QQQ

IWM is still trading quite favorable vs. the QQQ. Keep in mind that the large-cap, aggressive QQQ is nearly assured to outperform the IWM over time, especially within a secular bull market. But I do look for pockets of relative strength among small caps and the current market environment would support further rotation into small caps. It's certainly not a guarantee, but it is what I'm looking for.

XLY:XLP

The intraday XLY vs. XLP ratio panel at the top is definitely something to keep an eye on. It's been on the decline for a month and it's just reached a multi-month low. Typically, that's not a great signal and I do place a lot of importance on the health of consumer stocks. Nearly all of my key growth vs. value ratios, however, are strong and were strong at the most recent price high on the S&P 500. That has rarely happened at key market tops. Accordingly, I'm viewing any short-term selling as a buying opportunity for what I believe will be a strong end to 2025.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. We remain very low and below a 5-day moving average of .55, which indicates that we could be "toppy" from a short-term perspective. We finally saw some selling on Friday and it quickly escalated to "panicked" selling with the Volatility Index ($VIX) jumping above 22. I don't suspect this will last long.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. The above chart suggests the secular bull market rally off of the April low has legs to run further. I don't try to predict when this downtrend in sentiment will reverse, making the stock market riskier and perhaps a bit more unpredictable. Instead, I view the current signal as very bullish, leaving my bullish S&P 500 forecast at 7000.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked last week and as Q3 earnings season approaches:

JPM – very strong advance heading into earnings next week
BA – recent pullback to test rising 20-month EMA
FFIV – steady push higher has been relentless
MA – mostly consolidating in 2025, but remains comfortably above 20-month EMA
GS – very strong uptrend, nearly tripling over last 20 months
FDX – pushing back above its 20-month EMA, encouraging
AAPL – monthly RSI test of 50 provided excellent buying opportunity
CHRW – trending up since breakout above 110
JBHT – monthly RSI in 40s, typically solid entry point for long-termers
STX - buyers everywhere since the long-term breakout in May
HSY – trending up now above 20-month EMA, needs to break above 200
DIS – still needs breakout above 125, while looking for 20-month EMA support
MSCI – lengthy sideways consolidation spanning most of past 2-3 years
SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
KRE – breakout above 68-70 would likely spur much more buying, looks good
ED – multiple successful tests of rising 20-month EMA
AJG – looking to renew its long-term uptrend after 20-month EMA test
NSC – breakout and all-time high now measures to 380
RHI – appears headed to major price support test in 28-30 area
ADM – trending higher, a push above 65 completely reverses downtrend
BG – keeps testing its 20-month EMA from underneath, needs to clear
CVS – move up to near 80 this month very positive development
IPG – support in 22.00-22.50 range has held thus far
HRL - moving below 25 not a good look, needs reversal now
DE – love this 20-month EMA test after breaking out to all-time high

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: FAST ($54 billion)
Tuesday: JPM ($840 billion), JNJ ($460 billion), WFC ($256 billion), GS ($236 billion)
Wednesday: ASML ($386 billion), BAC ($369 billion), MS ($249 billion), ABT ($232 billion)
Thursday: TSM ($1.56 trillion), SCHW ($171 billion), ISRG ($159 billion) IBKR ($123 billion)
Friday: AXP ($226 billion)

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: October empire state manufacturing survey
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, September retail sales, September PPI, October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, August business inventories
Friday: September housing starts & building permits, September industrial production & capacity utilization

Given the current government shutdown, the above reports will not be released unless the shutdown ends.

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Oct 13: +66.86% (Ex: cumulative gains = +7.36% over 53 trading days since 1950. +7.36% x 253/53 = +66.86%)
Oct 14: +6.44%
Oct 15: -13.58%
Oct 16: -2.28%
Oct 17: -0.27%
Oct 18: +63.55%
Oct 19: -131.47%
Oct 20: +85.59%
Oct 21: +60.06%
Oct 22: -89.07%
Oct 23: -10.24%
Oct 24: -27.03%
Oct 25: -42.15%
Oct 26: -60.52%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Oct 13: +124.64%
Oct 14: +25.65%
Oct 15: -2.21%
Oct 16: +1.79%
Oct 17: -32.32%
Oct 18: +32.51%
Oct 19: -83.58%
Oct 20: +0.19%
Oct 21: +146.14%
Oct 22: -55.84%
Oct 23: -47.94%
Oct 24: -54.84%
Oct 25: -35.55%
Oct 26: -115.08%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Oct 13: +80.92%
Oct 14: +42.18%
Oct 15: +10.28%
Oct 16: +143.27%
Oct 17: -44.07%
Oct 18: +6.10%
Oct 19: -18.45%
Oct 20: +59.74%
Oct 21: +33.82%
Oct 22: -42.76%
Oct 23: -46.99%
Oct 24: -58.20%
Oct 25: +1.75%
Oct 26: -13.96%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

U.S. stocks were humming along last week, until early-Friday morning when President Trump mentioned higher tariffs on China and, given the heightened fragility of sentiment, we saw equities sell off very hard. We had not seen that type of selling since the April low, so it triggered a lot of emotional selling, in my opinion. Honestly, we've been overdue for selling and the bulls have had their proverbial heads down, driving prices higher no matter what. Well, that mentality came to a screeching halt. After some soothing words by President Trump over the weekend, stocks are attempting a recovery. Will it last though?

Here are a few things I'm pondering after Friday's selloff:

Earnings. It all starts on Tuesday. Sure, we've seen a couple big earnings reports out, but the true "kickoff" of earnings season starts with the banks. JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) are among the large money center banks that will report quarterly results on Tuesday morning. Banks should be doing very well in the current market environment and, with more rate cuts on the horizon, should be poised to do well in Q4 and beyond.

Banks. As mentioned above, several key banks will be reporting earnings. Technically, the banks index ($DJUSBK) has tumbled over the past 2-3 weeks and the regional bank ETF (KRE) has fared even worse, declining for the past 4-5 weeks. I'm expecting a big recovery as not only is the environment set up for bank strength, but October is also typically a HUGE month of relative outperformance for bank stocks. We'll see if this holds true starting tomorrow.

Government Shutdown. Thus far, it appears to be a non-event. Truthfully, I believe most market participants are expecting an emergency extension through year end to be announced at any time. It could become an issue for stocks, though, if the stalemate continues into month end as the impact on GDP could grow.

Technical Conditions. Our major indices lost key 20-day EMA support with a BANG on Friday. It wouldn't be unprecedented for stocks to simply recover and move back to all-time highs, that's not what most prudent technical analysts would expect after a serious breach of support. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of A-B-C consolidation period.

Technology. Technology (XLK) has single-handedly kept U.S. stocks afloat recently. Other aggressive sectors like consumer discretionary (XLY) and communication services (XLC) have been struggling with the former now below its 50-day SMA and the latter testing it. If we start to see cracks in the XLK foundation, further selling in our major indices should be expected.

Happy trading!
Tom