EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, November 10, 2025

Tom Bowley - November 10, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stock (LSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated on our website, except for the Seasonality ChartList, which should be completed later today. The Hot Stocks ChartList (HTCL) is a fairly new ChartList at EarningsBeats.com. It was created by our very own Matt Townsend, who employs a number of momentum strategies in identifying what he believes are 20 very hot momentum stocks. His strategy is to hold onto these stocks as long as the momentum remains. You can read more about this relatively new feature under "ChartLists" on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

Last week was a fairly rough week, especially based upon market standards set since April 2025. We did rally back on Friday, however, although neither the rough week or Friday's rally is apparent on this long-term chart. And that remains the beauty of it - long-term trends are not impacted by such short-term noise. The secular bull market remains perfectly intact from a long-term investor's perspective.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Money rotated into the more value-oriented SPY last week, but pulling back on this ratio during a period of market weakness isn't anything to worry about. I like the fact that this ratio recently hit new highs to match the S&P 500's recent high. It suggests the sustainability of this rally.

IWM:QQQ

The test of price support on the IWM near 138 was successful, and it did hold that support, while simultaneously outperfoming both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Not bad action.

XLY:XLP

Discretionary stocks backed off of its recent highs and this ratio suffered a bit last week, but like with the QQQ vs. SPY ratio, this should be considered rather normal during a period of market weakness. The overall trend here remains higher and I find that to be bullish and to support the likelihood of higher prices in the S&P 500 ahead.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. One thing that I've noticed recently and I pointed out above is that extreme complacency readings of .50 or below have done a pretty solid job of marking very near-term tops - not long-term tops. It did so again recently. For now, this 5-day reading has moved higher and back into neutral territory, providing us little in the way of market directional clues.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. No changes here. The overall downtrend appears to be intact and this is a bullish signal into year end, in my opinion.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of last week:

JPM – challenging all-time highs after quarterly results were released
BA – rolling over and losing 20-week EMA support not a great look
FFIV – after months of great action, we've now seen 3 weeks of awful performance
MA – testing 50-week SMA
GS – very strong uptrend, nearly tripling over last 20 months
FDX – appears to now be uptrending on weekly chart
AAPL – setting new all-time highs last week
CHRW – has nearly doubled off its April low
JBHT – moving back through 155 price resistance was a big deal technically
STX - very hot stock, has now more than quadrupled off its April low
HSY – was unable to clear 200, then broke 20-week EMA support, want to see it hold 160
DIS – 125 resistance remains the key
MSCI – nice week last week, but still has significant resistance in 625-650 range
SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
KRE – October reversal leaves the group perilously close to 57.50 support
ED – 95 is the support I'm watching on the weekly chart
AJG – after years of uninterrupted strength, AJG now finds itself in a downtrend
NSC – railroads have been weak, but NSC's uptrend remains intact, watch 270 support
RHI – one of the worst stocks of 2025, losing support near 28 is bearish
ADM – recovery still intact, 20-week EMA, now rising at 56, is key support
BG – has recovered 50% off February low and is currently trending higher
CVS – traded in October at a near 3-year high
IPG – consolidation continuing with support in 22.00-22.50 range
HRL - losing 25 was bad technically and downtrend is worsening
DE – bouncing slightly off 20-month EMA test

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: CRWV ($52 billion), OXY ($40 billion)
Tuesday: SE ($90 billion)
Wednesday: CSCO ($280 billion), TDG ($72 billion), MFC ($56 billion)
Thursday: DIS ($199 billion), AMAT ($186 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, October CPI
Friday: October retail sales, October PPI, October business inventories

The current government shutdown persists, although there were positive developments over the weekend that could signal the end of the stalemate between Republicans and Democrats.

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Nov 10: +35.74% (Ex: cumulative gains = +7.49% over 53 trading days since 1950. +7.49% x 253/53 = +35.74%)
Nov 11: +49.14%
Nov 12: -19.68%
Nov 13: +26.48%
Nov 14: +4.96%
Nov 15: -13.59%
Nov 16: +12.22%
Nov 17: +0.74%
Nov 18: -2.31%
Nov 19: -85.30%
Nov 20: -27.63%
Nov 21: +55.14%
Nov 22: +3.28%
Nov 23: +49.61%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Nov 10: +10.01%
Nov 11: +69.00%
Nov 12: -4.12%
Nov 13: +70.26%
Nov 14: -2.83%
Nov 15: -29.39%
Nov 16: -28.72%
Nov 17: -12.31%
Nov 18: +2.93%
Nov 19: -100.25%
Nov 20: -78.61%
Nov 21: +67.22%
Nov 22: -11.17%
Nov 23: +34.13%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Nov 10: +71.71%
Nov 11: +23.03%
Nov 12: -115.04%
Nov 13: +122.02%
Nov 14: -15.86%
Nov 15: -13.20%
Nov 16: -17.55%
Nov 17: -10.61%
Nov 18: +6.06%
Nov 19: -141.29%
Nov 20: -62.40%
Nov 21: +69.32%
Nov 22: +18.45%
Nov 23: +63.10%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Last week definitely had a different feel to it. First of all, the S&P 500 had gapped UP in 20 of 23 sessions through Monday, November 3rd. Then we saw gap downs to open every other session last week. The good news is that, after morning weakness, the market skies cleared and we saw very little in the way of selling in the afternoon hours. That reeks of market manipulation to me, not pure distribution like we'd typically see at the start of a deeper selling episode. So that was good news I thought.

Here are a few things I'm thinking about as we tackle a big week of earnings ahead:

Government Shutdown. As of this morning, there were positive developments relating to the shutdown as the potential end neared. The Senate passed the first stage of a new deal, which could lead to resolution early this week. That would be welcome news for many government workers and I'd expect to see a positive reaction in the stock market, as we already saw this morning.

Technical Tests. We saw several key technical support tests last week across our major indices, ranging from price support to 20-day EMA support to 50-day SMA support. The good news is that, once these levels were tested on Friday, U.S. equities rallied strongly into the close and then gapped higher today. Bouncing at such key tests only makes those tests more valuable and more important down the road.

Earnings. Earnings season is most definitely winding down and earnings have been fairly strong. Reactions to earnings have been more mixed, but a lot of that results from great news already being priced in.

Software. The software group ($DJUSSW) hit and closed at very important price support on Friday, testing lows established in late August/early September. While closing below this support level wouldn't necessarily end the secular bull market rally in U.S. equities, it would be slightly damaging as a key leadership area would be sending a more bearish signal. I highlighted this group in the EB Digest this morning.
U.S. Dollar Index ($USD). Last week, the USD hit 5-month high above 100. The strength in the USD, coming off the mid-September double bottom, has contributed to gold's ($GOLD) weakness since mid-October, though the stubbornly-high Volatility Index ($VIX) has helped gold vs. other asset classes. Above-normal fear will do that.

Seasonality. I just keep in mind that it's November, a time of Thanksgiving, falling leaves, and, typically, rising stock prices. We are more than 1% below the close on October 27th, but remember that we've only seen a lower stock market from the October 27th close through the January 18th close 10 times in the past 75 years. That's a very strong seasonal pattern that the bears must battle.

Happy trading!
Tom