EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, November 24, 2025

Tom Bowley - November 24, 2025

Holiday Schedule

First of all, we want to wish, all of those celebrating, a Happy Thanksgiving week. If you plan to travel, please be safe.

Given the holiday weekend in the U.S. and the slowing earnings reports, we won't be updating our ChartLists next weekend. Instead, we will update them the following weekend.

We will be having our Tuesday, Trading Places LIVE show this Tuesday, but there will be no Live Trading Room on Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. We'll be back with our next Live Trading Room on Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:00 ET. I will NOT be recording a video with StockCharts on Wednesday afternoon that would typically air the following day.

There will be one Daily Market Report issued on Tuesday, November 25th. We will be following market conditions throughout the week and, if necessary, will provide updates on Wednesday and/or Friday.

There will be no Weekly Portfolio Report next weekend. It will resume the following week. The Weekly Market Report will be published next Monday, as usual.

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated. You can read more about our ChartLists on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The secular bull market appears to be full steam ahead. Again, the beauty of this chart is that short-term noise gets squashed and it only focuses on the truly BIG picture. While we've had plenty to worry about in the short-term over the past several years, this long-term chart has continued to say, "stay the course."

That's what I believe long-term investors should continue to do - ignore the short-term noise and stay the bullish course.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth. For now, though, you can see that money seems to be rotating during the day more towards the S&P 500, suggesting that as the more growth-oriented NASDAQ rises, more of that increase is due to opening gaps and less is due to intraday accumulation.
I will say that I don't believe any one signal will ever provide us answers as to market direction. All of our information needs to be considered together. Tops form for different reasons, so trying to use just one signal, I believe, will send many false signals.

IWM:QQQ

Based on this chart, I certainly would have concluded that the chances of a December rate cut were dropping. However, the end-of-week rally coincided with the odds of a rate cut jumping to around 75%. The odds, as late as Thursday, were just 30%. It's certainly a fluid situation and is absolutely adding to the volatility experienced last week.

XLY:XLP

Both "including gaps" and "excluding gaps" charts remain in a long-term uptrend, but November has turned decidedly lower. I would expect this during a market selloff. The fact that this ratio wasn't moving lower PRIOR to the October top tells me that this is normal profit taking, not the start of a bear market.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. This sentiment indicator is now in "neutral" territory in the .60s. Historically, we don't grow excessively pessimistic, where bottoms form, until this 5-day moving average reaches .75. It's worth noting, however, that this area, more recently, has predicted market bottoms

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. It's a little early to change any medium-term to long-term portfolio strategies, but it is absolutely noteworthy that this 253-day signal appears to be turning back higher (red circle). I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about this, if it continues, at MarketVision 2026 in early January.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of a few weeks back:

JPM – challenging all-time highs after quarterly results were released
BA – rolling over and losing 20-week EMA support not a great look
FFIV – after months of great action, we've now seen 3 weeks of awful performance
MA – testing 50-week SMA
GS – very strong uptrend, nearly tripling over last 20 months
FDX – appears to now be uptrending on weekly chart
AAPL – setting new all-time highs last week
CHRW – has nearly doubled off its April low
JBHT – moving back through 155 price resistance was a big deal technically
STX - very hot stock, has now more than quadrupled off its April low
HSY – was unable to clear 200, then broke 20-week EMA support, want to see it hold 160
DIS – 125 resistance remains the key
MSCI – nice week last week, but still has significant resistance in 625-650 range
SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
KRE – October reversal leaves the group perilously close to 57.50 support
ED – 95 is the support I'm watching on the weekly chart
AJG – after years of uninterrupted strength, AJG now finds itself in a downtrend
NSC – railroads have been weak, but NSC's uptrend remains intact, watch 270 support
RHI – one of the worst stocks of 2025, losing support near 28 is bearish
ADM – recovery still intact, 20-week EMA, now rising at 56, is key support
BG – has recovered 50% off February low and is currently trending higher
CVS – traded in October at a near 3-year high
IPG – consolidation continuing with support in 22.00-22.50 range
HRL - losing 25 was bad technically and downtrend is worsening
DE – bouncing slightly off 20-month EMA test
LULU - basing between 160-190, but is it bottoming?; monthly RSI now in 30s
TTD - trying to hang onto multi-year price support near 39-40

I am adding one more stock to our long-term portfolio - Meta Platforms (META) - after it dropped roughly 25% since its recent high:

META:

META is now testing an uptrend line on its 5-year weekly chart, suggesting a solid entry point. It doesn't mean it cannot move lower, just that its recent pullback is hitting a key trend line where we've seen buying interest before.

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: A ($41 billion)
Tuesday: BABA ($366 billion), ADI ($111 billion), ADSK ($61 billion)
Wednesday: DE ($129 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: September retail sales (delayed), September PPI (delayed), September Case-Shiller home price index, August business inventories (delayed), November consumer confidence, October pending home sales
Wednesday: Initial jobless claims, September durable goods (delayed)
Thursday: None
Friday: November Chicago PMI

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Nov 24: +125.29% (Ex: cumulative gains = +20.80% over 42 trading days since 1950. +20.80% x 253/42 = +125.29%)
Nov 25: +34.27%
Nov 26: +58.57%
Nov 27: +49.40%
Nov 28: +31.94%
Nov 29: +7.99%
Nov 30: +19.90%
Dec 1: +15.70%
Dec 2: +21.58%
Dec 3: -36.62%
Dec 4: +36.69%
Dec 5: +35.03%
Dec 6: +45.24%
Dec 7: +22.82%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Nov 24: +222.36%
Nov 25: +48.61%
Nov 26: +80.45%
Nov 27: +61.34%
Nov 28: +57.67%
Nov 29: +1.44%
Nov 30: -21.23%
Dec 1: +56.22%
Dec 2: +45.01%
Dec 3: -49.98%
Dec 4: +30.44%
Dec 5: +95.83%
Dec 6: +17.81%
Dec 7: +1.36%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Nov 24: +251.02%
Nov 25: +91.90%
Nov 26: +12.19%
Nov 27: +23.42%
Nov 28: +63.14%
Nov 29: +44.73%
Nov 30: +45.26%
Dec 1: -9.80%
Dec 2: +117.14%
Dec 3: -32.17%
Dec 4: +34.90%
Dec 5: +119.43%
Dec 6: +51.19%
Dec 7: -26.09%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

Volatility reached extreme levels last week with the Volatility Index ($VIX) closing at 22 or above every day last week. As I always say, "nothing good happens when the VIX is above 20 and rising." And nothing good happened last week as all of our major indices finished lower.
Earnings season is mostly in the books and it was a solid quarter for S&P 500 companies as more than 80% beat Wall Street consensus estimates as to earnings. I'm turning my attention away from earnings and on to the following this week:

Head & Shoulders Tops. Last week, I discussed the head & shoulders breakdown in the IWM. This pattern is not negated until IWM either closes above 240 or reaches its measurement in the 224-226 area. The selling on Thursday marked potential right sides of necklines for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, so simply keep in mind that any strength this week COULD be a right shoulder forming. I'd watch the key 20-day and 50-day moving averages as potential targets of the right shoulder top. We're in a secular bull market, so I tend to ignore bearish patterns setting up, but we've already seen the IWM pattern execute and, with the VIX in the 20s, anything to the downside is possible.

Volatility ($VIX). The VIX has stubbornly remained above 17 since climbing above that level in late October.

Seasonality. Seasonal patterns will argue with the bearish patterns as we're in a VERY STRONG seasonal period this week around the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the U.S. In fact, the November 21st through November 27th period has produced 64.52% up days (vs. down days) since 1950 on the S&P 500. It's the highest % chance of higher days of any week throughout the year. The 2nd best week is the week ending December 27th, which comes in at 63.51%. For comparison purposes, the chances of ANY DAY being higher, since 1950, is 53.44%. There's clearly a strong tendency to see GREEN days during these two holiday seasons - Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Technical Support. All of our major indices are still trading above their 20-week EMAs, though many tested that key moving average last week before rallying on Friday. This is a very key moving average (MA) that rarely is violated during secular bull market rallies, so let's keep a close eye on that MA this week.

Happy trading!
Tom