EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, December 8, 2025

Tom Bowley - December 08, 2025

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
Strong AD (SADCL)
Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Leading Stocks (LSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated. You can read more about our ChartLists on our website.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I discussed last week the increasing short-term risks and how that could impact those who trade. Those comments do not change a bit the belief that I have that the S&P 500 is going higher in the longer-term. If you consider yourself a long-term investor, this chart should provide a lot of comfort to remain on the long side.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth. This ratio is bouncing back up with the rally, which is good. Unfortunately, the relative chart shows a current level well below the recent relative high. And that loss of relative strength is worrisome, not just on the QQQ:SPY, but also the XLY:XLP below.

I will say that I don't believe any one signal will ever provide us answers as to market direction. All of our information needs to be considered together. Tops form for different reasons, so trying to use just one signal, I believe, will send many false signals.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps have looked better on a relative basis over the past 1-2 weeks. I'll continue to monitor developments and report on it here. But for now, small caps look like the stronger area of the market (vs. large caps).

XLY:XLP

Both "including gaps" and "excluding gaps" charts remain in a long-term uptrend, but November turned decidedly lower. I would expect this during a market selloff. The fact that this ratio wasn't moving lower PRIOR to the October top tells me that this is normal profit taking, not the start of a bear market. That's the good news. I also wanted to see what happened to this ratio when the overall market rebounded. Well, the overall market has rebounded and challenged all-time highs. The XLY:XLP ratio has moved back up, which is good, but it's still way off the relative high established earlier.

I still view this as a warning sign. The bulls want to see this ratio continue to strengthen.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. This sentiment indicator has dropped out of "neutral" territory in the .60s and is showing that complacency is growing once again.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. It's a little early to change any medium-term to long-term portfolio strategies, but it is absolutely noteworthy that this 253-day signal appears to be turning back higher (red circle). I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about this, if it continues, at MarketVision 2026 in early January.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks look currently:

JPM – it's still quite strong, but extended
BA – has rebounded to test its 20-week EMA from underneath
FFIV – tested its April low and now bouncing
MA – I'd keep an eye on price support near 525
GS – very strong uptrend continues; great performance and overbought
FDX – has been surging off its early-October low
AAPL – seen profit taking last week or so, but lots of new highs set recently
CHRW – has nearly doubled off its April low
JBHT – now challenging overhead resistance in 190-195 range
STX - very hot stock, has now more than quadrupled off its April low
HSY – held 160 and bounced; still needs to clear 200
DIS – 125 resistance remains the key
MSCI – drifting lower again, initial support close to 520
SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
KRE – bounced off 57.50 support, now staring at price resistance in 67-68 area
ED – 95 is the support I'm watching on the weekly chart and it's perilously close
AJG – after years of uninterrupted strength, AJG is rapidly descending
NSC – 270 support held, now comes 300 resistance
RHI – found buyers at 25, still not out of the woods from all the sellers
ADM – I think solid support near 55 has been established
BG – combination of 87 bucks and 20-week EMA should provide support
CVS – testing rising 20-week EMA
IPG – weakening again, another trip to 22-23 range is increasing
HRL - losing 25 was bad technically, now that's key resistance
DE – struggling at 20-week EMA, a break above would be bullish
LULU - rallied to test falling 20-week EMA, but failing thus far to clear
TTD - trying to hang onto multi-year price support near 39-40
META - had a solid week after being added, but can it clear its 20-week EMA?

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: A ($41 billion)
Tuesday: AZO ($64 billion), FERG ($49 billion)
Wednesday: ORCL ($611 billion), ADBE ($138 billion), SNPS ($86 billion)
Thursday: AVGO ($1.8 trillion), COST ($397 billion), CIEN ($28 billion), LULU ($22 billion)
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: None
Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins
Wednesday: FOMC policy statement
Thursday: Initial jobless claims
Friday: September wholesale inventories

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.
Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

Dec 1: +15.70% (Ex: cumulative gains = +3.29% over 53 trading days since 1950. +3.29% x 253/53 = +15.70%)
Dec 2: +21.58%
Dec 3: -36.62%
Dec 4: +36.69%
Dec 5: +35.03%
Dec 6: +45.24%
Dec 7: +22.82%
Dec 8: +16.37%
Dec 9: -10.35%
Dec 10: +7.67%
Dec 11: -36.52%
Dec 12: +0.16%
Dec 13: -0.13%
Dec 14: -62.95%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Dec 1: +56.22%
Dec 2: +45.01%
Dec 3: -49.98%
Dec 4: +30.44%
Dec 5: +95.83%
Dec 6: +17.81%
Dec 7: +1.36%
Dec 8: +53.51%
Dec 9: -71.39%
Dec 10: +50.65%
Dec 11: -72.16%
Dec 12: -18.85%
Dec 13: -59.47%
Dec 14: -109.19%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Dec 1: -9.80%
Dec 2: +117.14%
Dec 3: -32.17%
Dec 4: +34.90%
Dec 5: +119.43%
Dec 6: +51.19%
Dec 7: -26.09%
Dec 8: +93.55%
Dec 9: -93.38%
Dec 10: -22.33%
Dec 11: -96.02%
Dec 12: +2.91%
Dec 13: -42.67%
Dec 14: -87.43%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

I distinguish between short-term “rocky” periods and true cyclical bear markets, and right now I’m simply cautious, not bearish. The Fed’s inconsistent messaging has created one of the toughest short-term trading environments I’ve seen in decades, leading me at times (like now) to step out of the market, protect capital, and reassess.

Because our members have diverse goals and time horizons, my personal trading moves—often very short-term—aren’t meant as directives. When I say I’m going to cash, it simply means I’m reducing risk due to near-term uncertainty, not abandoning my longer-term bullish outlook. My goal is to provide context so members can evaluate their own strategies, risk tolerance, and time frames accordingly.

I'll continue to keep you updated on what I see in the market. Here are a few things to keep in mind this week:

The Fed. The odds of a 25-basis point fed funds rate cut is roughly 90% right now. It's not a guarantee, but I believe we would see SIGNIFICANT downside market action if the Fed does not cut, especially among those interest-rate sensitive groups like small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), transportation ($TRAN), and homebuilders (XHB). I think the real key, assuming we do get that 25-basis point reduction, will be the Fed's language regarding further rate cuts. If they try to reduce the market's expectation of further rate cuts in 2026, this also could lead to short-term volatility (meaning likely downside). The bulls clearly want the Fed to speak dovishly about 2026.

Seasonality. Seasonal patterns favor the bulls in December, though action is notably more bullish in the 2nd half of the month vs. the 1st half. And historically, defensive- and value-oriented areas tend to provide leadership until the new year.

Technical Support. Recent lows established with the November selling will be key technically. While I see reasons to be more cautious right now, it's price action and breakdowns that ultimately dictate weakness ahead.

Happy trading!
Tom