EB Weekly Market Report - Monday, January 5, 2026

Tom Bowley - January 05, 2026

ChartLists/Spreadsheets

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

Short Squeeze (SSCL)
Hot Stocks (HTCL)
Market Vision (MVCL)
Key Manipulation Spreadsheet

The above ChartLists and spreadsheet have been updated. You can view and/or download these ChartLists from our website, and also read about them to gain a better understanding of how they can help in your trading success.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

I talked about this during MarketVision 2026 on Saturday, but I believe it's very important to understand that ALL warning signs I'm seeing are of the shorter-term variety - meaning that IF we see weakness ahead, it won't last. We could see a volatile year ahead and end the year right about where we started. That's currently what I'm thinking, with a potential 10% or more correction somewhere along the line.

Longer-term, I see more all-time highs ahead. Therefore, staying the course makes a lot of sense for those who pay little attention to day-to-day and week-to-week market movements.

Sustainability Ratios

Here's the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Keep in mind that the intraday analysis provided is a "work in progress". I continue to analyze this data to see if it helps provide us clues about calling market direction. It makes common sense to me that it should help in some sense, but it'll require a much longer-term study to determine its worth. I don't the like the steady decline in that top panel, which ignores gaps. For the past several months, it appears as though money has rotated rather heavily toward the more value-oriented S&P 500. I believe significant rotation like this away from growth and into value is unhealthy.

IWM:QQQ

For the past four months, money also has rotated intraday into the small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) and away from the large-cap, growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). This definitely remains a bullish sign for small caps, though it did not materialize as such in 2025, except for brief periods of relative strength.

XLY:XLP

While the rebound continues on the XLY vs. XLP ratio that includes gaps, the intraday XLY:XLP ratio that ignores gaps is beginning to roll over again and that has been problematic for U.S. stocks in the past.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.
Keep in mind that the above 5-day SMA reading of the CPCE is our "speed boat" sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. This sentiment indicator moved back into the mid-.60s and remains in neutral territory.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our "ocean-liner" signal, unlike our short-term speedboat indicator. Any significant change in direction in this 253-day CPCE, in the past, has had profound effects on the S&P 500. I wouldn't want to bet against what this indicator is telling us, which is that we should be cautious heading into 2026. For the first time since mid-2025, we are clearly seeing this 253-day SMA turn back higher. That suggests that sentiment may have bottomed and that pessimism will begin to return to higher levels over time. That nearly always occurs when stock prices are declining.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I've discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. I try to review the long-term picture once a month or so and I'll update them next week. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked as of Monday, December 5th:

JPM – it's still quite strong, but extended
BA – has rebounded to test its 20-week EMA from underneath
FFIV – tested its April low and now bouncing
MA – I'd keep an eye on price support near 525
GS – very strong uptrend continues; great performance and overbought
FDX – has been surging off its early-October low
AAPL – seen profit taking last week or so, but lots of new highs set recently
CHRW – has nearly doubled off its April low
JBHT – now challenging overhead resistance in 190-195 range
STX - very hot stock, has now more than quadrupled off its April low
HSY – held 160 and bounced; still needs to clear 200
DIS – 125 resistance remains the key
MSCI – drifting lower again, initial support close to 520
SBUX - another in a lengthy consolidation period, needs to hold 70 on selling
KRE – bounced off 57.50 support, now staring at price resistance in 67-68 area
ED – 95 is the support I'm watching on the weekly chart and it's perilously close
AJG – after years of uninterrupted strength, AJG is rapidly descending
NSC – 270 support held, now comes 300 resistance
RHI – found buyers at 25, still not out of the woods from all the sellers
ADM – I think solid support near 55 has been established
BG – combination of 87 bucks and 20-week EMA should provide support
CVS – testing rising 20-week EMA
IPG – weakening again, another trip to 22-23 range is increasing
HRL - losing 25 was bad technically, now that's key resistance
DE – struggling at 20-week EMA, a break above would be bullish
LULU - rallied to test falling 20-week EMA, but failing thus far to clear
TTD - trying to hang onto multi-year price support near 39-40
META - had a solid week after being added, but can it clear its 20-week EMA?
ADBE - falling back into a bottoming reverse right shoulder?

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we're doing with this list and why it's different.

Also, please keep in mind that I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: STZ ($24 billion)
Thursday: None
Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

Monday: December ISM manufacturing index
Tuesday: December PMI services
Wednesday: December ADP employment report, December ISM services,
November JOLTS, October factory orders
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q3 productivity
Friday: December nonfarm payrolls & unemployment rate, October housing starts, January consumer sentiment

Historical Data

I'm a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don't use history as a primary indicator, I'm always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you'll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely. The percentage for each calendar day represents the annualized return for that day. An example of how this is calculated is reflected next to the first day under the S&P 500 and in parenthesis:
S&P 500 (since 1950)

Jan 5: +24.47% (Ex: cumulative gains = +5.13% over 53 trading days since 1950.+5.13% x 253/53 = +24.47%)
Jan 6: +34.72%
Jan 7: -23.40%
Jan 8: -43.48%
Jan 9: -27.37%
Jan 10: +29.66%
Jan 11: +19.74%
Jan 12: -21.45%
Jan 13: -20.43%
Jan 14: +60.37%
Jan 15: +33.89%
Jan 16: +22.80%
Jan 17: +20.13%
Jan 18: +10.39%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

Jan 5: +11.23%
Jan 6: +105.32%
Jan 7: +21.28%
Jan 8: +29.90%
Jan 9: +4.57%
Jan 10: +105.01%
Jan 11: +37.76%
Jan 12: -25.57%
Jan 13: +0.75%
Jan 14: +84.91%
Jan 15: +35.41%
Jan 16: +60.86%
Jan 17: +52.88%
Jan 18: +35.23%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

Jan 5: -46.58%
Jan 6: +99.15%
Jan 7: -12.68%
Jan 8: -5.05%
Jan 9: -52.38%
Jan 10: +100.63%
Jan 11: +9.96%
Jan 12: -40.26%
Jan 13: +17.87%
Jan 14: +57.85%
Jan 15: -29.55%
Jan 16: +67.29%
Jan 17: +11.78%
Jan 18: -14.79%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

We're starting 2026 similar to the way we started 2025. Money is rotating into more defensive areas, which many times has resulted in subsequent market periods that have been difficult. Most Wall Street analysts are targeting higher prices for 2026, which is also of concern. I'm certainly willing, however, to take things one step at a time in 2026, because there's only one common denominator between ALL weak periods - prices decline. A significant price decline would be the confirmation of the signals I'm seeing.

Here are a few things I'll be watching this week:

10/28 to 1/18 Bullish Period. The next two weeks will determine how the 10/28/25 to 1/18/26 period plays out this year. As I mentioned in a special session as part of MarketVision 2026, this time period is THE most bullish period of the calendar year. History tells us that when this period is weak, we should significantly lower our bar of expectations for the year that follows.

Jobs. The December nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday and we'll likely need a goldilocks number to keep the rally going. If jobs come in too hot, the interest rate hawks will be screaming INFLATION. If jobs come in too weak, the R word (recession) could begin popping up. The current consensus is 54,000, which follows the 64,000 number for November. I think the bulls want to see a number very close to consensus.

Growth vs. Value. Even today's nice action in U.S. stocks is led by value (IWD, +1.36%), instead of growth (IWF, +0.35%).

Happy trading!
Tom